As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis, the recovery attempt has been short lived and the failure to recover above the 39'000 area triggered a new wave of selling pressure which pushed sharply down the BTC towards an intraday low of 34'324 !!!
After this sharp decline, it is likely to see some little recovery which, in this broad bearish strategic picture, should be seen as a corrective move only.
Watch H4 and H1 for tactical view.
STRATEGIC VIEW :
MONTHLY (M1)
Ongong bearish picture.
Currently below the CLUSTER OF MBB (36'704) AND KIJUN-SEN (36'425)
61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 28''737
78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 17'792
RSI converging to the downside
WEEKLY (W1)
Currently below the clouds !
Next significant support level @ 32'950 former low ahead of the psychological 30'000 level.
THE VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL REMAINS 28'6000 WHICH IS :
1) The Double top trigger level (Warning, warning and warning ¨)
2) Roughly the 61.8% Fibonacci retraccemtnt (28'737) of the big 3'850-69'000 rally.
This level should really be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT and it is likely to be difficult to break straightly !
A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF 28'600 WOULD CREATE GREAD DAMAGE FOR THE BTC WHICH IS ALREADY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE, HAVING IN MIND, OF COURSE, A LONG TERM BROAD PICTURE....
DAILY (D1)
Below the clouds.
Lagging line below the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'457, the Kijun-Sen @ 40'087 and the MBB @ 41'203
Watch price action on RSI
In this daily time frame, only a clear recovery above 39'350, (as already mentioned in my previous analysis) would force to a view reassessment of the still ongoing downside strategic move...
TACTICAL VIEW :
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below the clouds (41'339-42'117)
Watch former low @ 36'370 as the first warning indicator of a potential intraday short term reversal.
Then 36'823, 37'237 ahead of 37'656.
A clear breakout of the MBB @ 37'656 would be constructive on this H4 time frame
Watch also RSI price action to detect bullish divergence !
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently below the clouds too (37'755-37'931)
TS @ 36'092
KS @ 36'813 (which is also the H4 Tenkan-Sen !)
Watch the Mid Bollnger Band, currently @ 37'308
CONCLUSION :
Al already mentioned several times in my previous analysis, there are, in this high volatility environment, plenty of tactical trading opportunities BUT NEVER FORGET TO ACT ACCORDINGLY WHEN YOU INITIATE POSITIONS COUNTERTREND AND PLACE STOP LOSSES DEPENDING ON YOUR TARGET AND YOUR TIME FRAME !!!
Have a nice trading day
All the best and take care
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
After this sharp decline, it is likely to see some little recovery which, in this broad bearish strategic picture, should be seen as a corrective move only.
Watch H4 and H1 for tactical view.
STRATEGIC VIEW :
MONTHLY (M1)
Ongong bearish picture.
Currently below the CLUSTER OF MBB (36'704) AND KIJUN-SEN (36'425)
61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 28''737
78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 17'792
RSI converging to the downside
WEEKLY (W1)
Currently below the clouds !
Next significant support level @ 32'950 former low ahead of the psychological 30'000 level.
THE VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL REMAINS 28'6000 WHICH IS :
1) The Double top trigger level (Warning, warning and warning ¨)
2) Roughly the 61.8% Fibonacci retraccemtnt (28'737) of the big 3'850-69'000 rally.
This level should really be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT and it is likely to be difficult to break straightly !
A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF 28'600 WOULD CREATE GREAD DAMAGE FOR THE BTC WHICH IS ALREADY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE, HAVING IN MIND, OF COURSE, A LONG TERM BROAD PICTURE....
DAILY (D1)
Below the clouds.
Lagging line below the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'457, the Kijun-Sen @ 40'087 and the MBB @ 41'203
Watch price action on RSI
In this daily time frame, only a clear recovery above 39'350, (as already mentioned in my previous analysis) would force to a view reassessment of the still ongoing downside strategic move...
TACTICAL VIEW :
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below the clouds (41'339-42'117)
Watch former low @ 36'370 as the first warning indicator of a potential intraday short term reversal.
Then 36'823, 37'237 ahead of 37'656.
A clear breakout of the MBB @ 37'656 would be constructive on this H4 time frame
Watch also RSI price action to detect bullish divergence !
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently below the clouds too (37'755-37'931)
TS @ 36'092
KS @ 36'813 (which is also the H4 Tenkan-Sen !)
Watch the Mid Bollnger Band, currently @ 37'308
CONCLUSION :
Al already mentioned several times in my previous analysis, there are, in this high volatility environment, plenty of tactical trading opportunities BUT NEVER FORGET TO ACT ACCORDINGLY WHEN YOU INITIATE POSITIONS COUNTERTREND AND PLACE STOP LOSSES DEPENDING ON YOUR TARGET AND YOUR TIME FRAME !!!
Have a nice trading day
All the best and take care
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
