WEEKLY (W1)$
Last week price action triggered an INVERTED HAMMER PATTERN, which usually should be seen as a bullish warning signal; nevertheless, in this case, I would remain very cautious before to conclure that the downside pressure is over and we can see a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ; the weekly closing level @ 38'438 was below the TENKAN-SEN !
Indeed, the ongoing weekly price action should validate this Inverted hammer pattern and a sustainable recovery should occur in order to do it; in addition, a failure to hold above the bottom of the clouds on a weekly basis, would invalidated this potential reversal pattern and put further pressure to to downside, calling for lower levels towards the former bottom zone 35'000-33'000.
RSI below 50, @ 41.34
LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the weekly clouds support area.
THE STRATEGIC KEY PIVOT LEVEL ON THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME IS @ 28'600 WHICH SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL !!!!
Watch the CLOUDS as the LEADING INDICATOR (37'500-44'000)
DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's closing level @ 38'438 was the third daily closing level below the daily clouds and below the former downtrend line which became the new support and which has also been broken too.
RSI is below 50, @ 43.07
LAGGING LINE is already below the Kijun-Sen and also below the Mid Bollinger Band !
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 38'528 has been broken on a daily closing basis and the next support level to look at is @ 36'679 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) ahead of the 35'000 area (former uptrend support line). A breakout of the 35'000 support area would put the focus on 34'324 (former intraday low of Feb 24th ahead of the low of 32'950 reached on Jan 24th.
In this daily picture, only a sustainable recovery above 40'000 (daily clouds bottom & Mid Bollinger Band) would neutralise temporary this ongoing persisting downside risk !!!
LAST BUT NOT LEAST ONLY A RECOVERY ABOVE 42'524 would force to a view reassessment of the expected BEARISH SCENARIO calling for lower levels !
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below :
1) the clouds
2) the Kijun-Sen
3) the Mid Bollinger Band
4) the Tenkan-Sen
RSI below 50 @ 32.42
LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the H4 clouds !
Watch both Tenkan-Sen (@ 38'646) and the Mid Bollinger Band (@39'430) as the first levels which should be broken to neutralise this ongoing downside rise !
The main resistance area in this 4 hours time frame remains the clouds resistance area between 39'828 and 42'722.
Any short term recovery should be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY in a BROAD STRATEGICALLY BEAR TREND and therefore, as already mentioned several times, in my previous analysis, any countertrend exposure should be managed with a strict disciplined approach in applying an appropriate RISK REWARD RATIO which will depend on your TACTICAL TIME FRAME HORIZON !
Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get clues for further development.
Have a nice trading week and all the best.
Take care.
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
Last week price action triggered an INVERTED HAMMER PATTERN, which usually should be seen as a bullish warning signal; nevertheless, in this case, I would remain very cautious before to conclure that the downside pressure is over and we can see a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ; the weekly closing level @ 38'438 was below the TENKAN-SEN !
Indeed, the ongoing weekly price action should validate this Inverted hammer pattern and a sustainable recovery should occur in order to do it; in addition, a failure to hold above the bottom of the clouds on a weekly basis, would invalidated this potential reversal pattern and put further pressure to to downside, calling for lower levels towards the former bottom zone 35'000-33'000.
RSI below 50, @ 41.34
LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the weekly clouds support area.
THE STRATEGIC KEY PIVOT LEVEL ON THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME IS @ 28'600 WHICH SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL !!!!
Watch the CLOUDS as the LEADING INDICATOR (37'500-44'000)
DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's closing level @ 38'438 was the third daily closing level below the daily clouds and below the former downtrend line which became the new support and which has also been broken too.
RSI is below 50, @ 43.07
LAGGING LINE is already below the Kijun-Sen and also below the Mid Bollinger Band !
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 38'528 has been broken on a daily closing basis and the next support level to look at is @ 36'679 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) ahead of the 35'000 area (former uptrend support line). A breakout of the 35'000 support area would put the focus on 34'324 (former intraday low of Feb 24th ahead of the low of 32'950 reached on Jan 24th.
In this daily picture, only a sustainable recovery above 40'000 (daily clouds bottom & Mid Bollinger Band) would neutralise temporary this ongoing persisting downside risk !!!
LAST BUT NOT LEAST ONLY A RECOVERY ABOVE 42'524 would force to a view reassessment of the expected BEARISH SCENARIO calling for lower levels !
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below :
1) the clouds
2) the Kijun-Sen
3) the Mid Bollinger Band
4) the Tenkan-Sen
RSI below 50 @ 32.42
LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the H4 clouds !
Watch both Tenkan-Sen (@ 38'646) and the Mid Bollinger Band (@39'430) as the first levels which should be broken to neutralise this ongoing downside rise !
The main resistance area in this 4 hours time frame remains the clouds resistance area between 39'828 and 42'722.
Any short term recovery should be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY in a BROAD STRATEGICALLY BEAR TREND and therefore, as already mentioned several times, in my previous analysis, any countertrend exposure should be managed with a strict disciplined approach in applying an appropriate RISK REWARD RATIO which will depend on your TACTICAL TIME FRAME HORIZON !
Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get clues for further development.
Have a nice trading week and all the best.
Take care.
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
