The reason Elliott Waves and other trading methodologies work is not because everyone follows them (I would suspect most traders don't actively perform 5 wave analysis and fib retracements all day long... unlike some of us here) but because trading psychology and patterns exist in nature and the way our human psychology works, they get applied to charts. Patterns pete, and repeat. They key is identifying the pattern and then understanding the changes in the pattern and thinking deeply about why we are seeing what we are seeing. This is a real case study on the daily from the Dec 17' move to the June 19' move.
The parabolic move we had in June looks very very similar to the parabolic move we had in December 17'. But this last pump to $12,300-ish region is a change from the December 17' wick. Let's go through the ways.
1) The sell off from Dec 17' over 2 months was about 70% off the previous highs. This sell off? 35%
2) December 17' bear pump up from the 70% sell off to retraced back to the .382. This pump after the sell off? The .618 (wicked past it, something Bitcoin loves to do)
The one challenge with this analysis so far? Not enough time. BTC sold off 70% in 51 days; from the June 19' parabolic move it has only been 49. But based on how much stronger BTC is performing, I would suspect we see more elevated levels, less dips and more wicks.
I still think it is more likely than not we hit between $6-8k before we fully pump again as I called for mid June. I would not be the slightest surprised if we test $12,300 again within a couple weeks. Just based on patterns and market psychology. Remember everyone calling for capitulation from the previous parabolic? The same, in my opinion, needs to happen now to create a new higher low floor for traders to work from. Either that, or consolidate around $9-10k for a few weeks/months before we decide to move higher.
If we break $12,300 with any momentum (like... literally any) then we are indeed moving to $17k, of which $20k will be just a matter of time. For now though, I am short (from $11,600 levels) and will wait to see what the future brings.
Most likely it will bring back the past, with variations to look out for that we can already begin to understand.
The parabolic move we had in June looks very very similar to the parabolic move we had in December 17'. But this last pump to $12,300-ish region is a change from the December 17' wick. Let's go through the ways.
1) The sell off from Dec 17' over 2 months was about 70% off the previous highs. This sell off? 35%
2) December 17' bear pump up from the 70% sell off to retraced back to the .382. This pump after the sell off? The .618 (wicked past it, something Bitcoin loves to do)
The one challenge with this analysis so far? Not enough time. BTC sold off 70% in 51 days; from the June 19' parabolic move it has only been 49. But based on how much stronger BTC is performing, I would suspect we see more elevated levels, less dips and more wicks.
I still think it is more likely than not we hit between $6-8k before we fully pump again as I called for mid June. I would not be the slightest surprised if we test $12,300 again within a couple weeks. Just based on patterns and market psychology. Remember everyone calling for capitulation from the previous parabolic? The same, in my opinion, needs to happen now to create a new higher low floor for traders to work from. Either that, or consolidate around $9-10k for a few weeks/months before we decide to move higher.
If we break $12,300 with any momentum (like... literally any) then we are indeed moving to $17k, of which $20k will be just a matter of time. For now though, I am short (from $11,600 levels) and will wait to see what the future brings.
Most likely it will bring back the past, with variations to look out for that we can already begin to understand.