Just a quick publication to answer the numerous messages. The are all along the same line, is $12k coming? Such and such said $6k etc.
This is ‘capitulation’, it is a good thing. The market needs to flush out those weak hands to move on. Once they are gone, it’s over. To help put the bearish sentiment into perspective, the above monthly chart is Bitcoin over the M2 money supply, which has seen a 40% increase in supply since the 2017 Bitcoin top.
1) February 2019 and March 2020 both found support on the 200-month simple moving average. Currently price action is testing the 300-month SMA.
2) Here is a jaw dropping statistic. Since the 40% increase in money supply, Bitcoin is currently priced at a value of $11k. And that’s ignoring all the inflation of the past 5.5 years.
3) Did you read no. 2? In the last 5.5 years Bitcoin is of less value. Isn’t that incredible? Now ask yourself if this bearish sentiment is reasonable?
Zooming in a little closer to the dollar weekly chart the 200-week (red) and 300-week moving averages in consideration of February 2019 and March 2020 dates, you can see more easily how fast price action is approaching extreme oversold conditions. Currently more oversold than those past two events. In fact this is the first time ever a ‘incredible buy’ signal has printed on the weekly chart. Is there an astroid heading towards the planet? This is sentiment right now.
The weekly dollar chart:
Lastly on the 2-day chart you can see price action is arrested by the 300-week around $16.7k. Bitcoin has never broken this moving average in its history.
The 2-day dollar chart
If you’ve made it this far, here’s a cheery statistic: Bitcoin price action on the above M2 monthly chart has never closed below the 200-monthly SMA. A 30% moved is required to maintain that statistic. Assuming money supply does not change massively in the next 12 days (Who know what the FED will do next week!), the dollar chart must close at a minimum of $25k by June 30th.
Keep calm, switch off the computer - will be a very different picture come the month end.
WW
This is ‘capitulation’, it is a good thing. The market needs to flush out those weak hands to move on. Once they are gone, it’s over. To help put the bearish sentiment into perspective, the above monthly chart is Bitcoin over the M2 money supply, which has seen a 40% increase in supply since the 2017 Bitcoin top.
1) February 2019 and March 2020 both found support on the 200-month simple moving average. Currently price action is testing the 300-month SMA.
2) Here is a jaw dropping statistic. Since the 40% increase in money supply, Bitcoin is currently priced at a value of $11k. And that’s ignoring all the inflation of the past 5.5 years.
3) Did you read no. 2? In the last 5.5 years Bitcoin is of less value. Isn’t that incredible? Now ask yourself if this bearish sentiment is reasonable?
Zooming in a little closer to the dollar weekly chart the 200-week (red) and 300-week moving averages in consideration of February 2019 and March 2020 dates, you can see more easily how fast price action is approaching extreme oversold conditions. Currently more oversold than those past two events. In fact this is the first time ever a ‘incredible buy’ signal has printed on the weekly chart. Is there an astroid heading towards the planet? This is sentiment right now.
The weekly dollar chart:
Lastly on the 2-day chart you can see price action is arrested by the 300-week around $16.7k. Bitcoin has never broken this moving average in its history.
The 2-day dollar chart
If you’ve made it this far, here’s a cheery statistic: Bitcoin price action on the above M2 monthly chart has never closed below the 200-monthly SMA. A 30% moved is required to maintain that statistic. Assuming money supply does not change massively in the next 12 days (Who know what the FED will do next week!), the dollar chart must close at a minimum of $25k by June 30th.
Keep calm, switch off the computer - will be a very different picture come the month end.
WW
Comment:
Someone asked for more description on price v's value in consideration of the M2 money supply and how I arrived at a $11k valuation.
So here it is:
On the M2 money supply weekly chart below you can see the dollar supply has increased 56% since the Bitcoin top in 2017. One dollar in 2017 is obviously not the same ‘value’ (not price) as a dollar today.
The dollar has lost over half its value in real terms (before inflation is considered) since the 2017 top.
Today’s price ($18k) x half = $9k Bitcoin in real terms. What 1 Bitcoin bought you in the 2017 high you would need two today.
The last 5 years have been a total nothing muffin for Bitcoin. A bucket of water has become more valuable in that time.
What of the future?
The next few years are very likely to be the complete opposite. This is the time to be accumulating.
So here it is:
On the M2 money supply weekly chart below you can see the dollar supply has increased 56% since the Bitcoin top in 2017. One dollar in 2017 is obviously not the same ‘value’ (not price) as a dollar today.
The dollar has lost over half its value in real terms (before inflation is considered) since the 2017 top.
Today’s price ($18k) x half = $9k Bitcoin in real terms. What 1 Bitcoin bought you in the 2017 high you would need two today.
The last 5 years have been a total nothing muffin for Bitcoin. A bucket of water has become more valuable in that time.
What of the future?
The next few years are very likely to be the complete opposite. This is the time to be accumulating.
Comment:
Could be something could be more nothing. A 'incredible buy' signal prints on the 12hr. Usually price action sees a 30% upside move in the days ahead when printed.
The wicks on the 12hr also interesting from a supply / demand perspective, clearly demand is strong down here.
Look for long wicks into the supply side in the days ahead. This will be the first indication of seller exhaustion. Once you see that, long positions are quite safe.
The wicks on the 12hr also interesting from a supply / demand perspective, clearly demand is strong down here.
Look for long wicks into the supply side in the days ahead. This will be the first indication of seller exhaustion. Once you see that, long positions are quite safe.
Comment:
Many folks talking about the correction not being over until 80% corrected.
Firstly this is ‘timing the market’, just don’t.
Second the 80% figure is inaccurate, but it sticks. Look left, the truth is in the charts.
Total corrections in Bitcoin bear markets since the beginning:
93%
86%
84%
71%
73% currently
You see a pattern?
Firstly this is ‘timing the market’, just don’t.
Second the 80% figure is inaccurate, but it sticks. Look left, the truth is in the charts.
Total corrections in Bitcoin bear markets since the beginning:
93%
86%
84%
71%
73% currently
You see a pattern?
Comment:
Feeling the FOMO yet? Wait until it blasts past the all time high a few months from now. True. That idea comes later.
Comment:
Still messages pouring in asking when $12k etc.
If you're waiting for $12k, $16k maybe even $9k.. here's what to do. You've got $1000 to spend, $100 everyday for the next 10-days. I'm very confident the market bottom will be cemented this week. What is that number exactly? I don't know. No one does. However trying to time the bottom is the worst, you'll not achieve it and the pain when price action runs away from you fills you with regret. Act.
If you're waiting for $12k, $16k maybe even $9k.. here's what to do. You've got $1000 to spend, $100 everyday for the next 10-days. I'm very confident the market bottom will be cemented this week. What is that number exactly? I don't know. No one does. However trying to time the bottom is the worst, you'll not achieve it and the pain when price action runs away from you fills you with regret. Act.
Comment:
** Dragonfly DOJI 2-day chart **
On the 2-day chart below price action prints a Dragonfly DOJI candle. This is a signal the market is about to pivot strong Bullish.
April 2016. That's how far left you've got to look to find another DOJI on this time frame.
On the 2-day chart below price action prints a Dragonfly DOJI candle. This is a signal the market is about to pivot strong Bullish.
April 2016. That's how far left you've got to look to find another DOJI on this time frame.
Comment:
I except volatility during Powells testimony over the next 48hrs, that will flush out and remaining weak hands to the orange line but no lower. This is not guaranteed the orange line is met. Once that happens the capitulation is over.
Comment:
When this idea is 'closed' it will be to mark an end to the capitulation. Despite a number of bullish indicators suggesting a reversal is very near, my impression is the bottom is not yet quite in. I'm certain their remains a number of weak hands in the marketplace that need to sell at any price, not sure what they're waiting for... The 2nd indication is the Moonboys all over youtube opening up multi-million dollar leveraged long positions. Almost certainly bearish.
Be cautious, be patient.
Be cautious, be patient.
Comment:
The above was a little vague, there is more to it than that. Why I’m not closing just yet… I would like to see a double bottom printed on this trend line of March 2020. It is of considerable historical importance going back to 2013. 2013 was the only other bull market price action collapsed 75% before printing a new high. It was this very trend line that price action is touching today back in 2013 between blowing up from $100 to $1000.
Where exactly is that trend line on today’s price? Somewhere between $16.5k and $18.5k. Arguably it has already tested and confirmed. Still I would like to see a candle body close on the this line on the 4-day chart below.
Now here is why I don’t want you to be concerned with a few +/- k’s. After the trend line is tested (and I’ve spent hours studying this) price action is very probable going to rally for the remainder of the year.
Price action will move back to the all time high before September. Crash until November. And rally until $100-120k. That will be the end station for this bull market.
You read it here first.
Ww
Where exactly is that trend line on today’s price? Somewhere between $16.5k and $18.5k. Arguably it has already tested and confirmed. Still I would like to see a candle body close on the this line on the 4-day chart below.
Now here is why I don’t want you to be concerned with a few +/- k’s. After the trend line is tested (and I’ve spent hours studying this) price action is very probable going to rally for the remainder of the year.
Price action will move back to the all time high before September. Crash until November. And rally until $100-120k. That will be the end station for this bull market.
You read it here first.
Ww
Comment:
This capitulation idea is very close to being closed. Very. You’ve got to get out of ‘bear’ bias thinking immediately.
As we know the stock market, in particular the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin price action go up together and go down together.
I want to bring your attention to the 10-day chart below. The black line is Bitcoin price action with the Nasdaq 100 as candles since 2020. You can see how well they follow each other.
A new 10-day candle just printed on the Nasdaq 100 with the close of Friday’s session, a Dragonfly DOJI candle. A perfect one at that, no shadow above the candle body. When you see these candles following a sell off you know there’s a high probability of a strong upsurge in price action. Think of it like a rubber band stretched out to the point of snapping, that is what this candle represents.
A perfect DOJI candle has never printed on the NASDAQ 100 before, yes, you’ll not find one looking all the way back to 1984!
Ww
As we know the stock market, in particular the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin price action go up together and go down together.
I want to bring your attention to the 10-day chart below. The black line is Bitcoin price action with the Nasdaq 100 as candles since 2020. You can see how well they follow each other.
A new 10-day candle just printed on the Nasdaq 100 with the close of Friday’s session, a Dragonfly DOJI candle. A perfect one at that, no shadow above the candle body. When you see these candles following a sell off you know there’s a high probability of a strong upsurge in price action. Think of it like a rubber band stretched out to the point of snapping, that is what this candle represents.
A perfect DOJI candle has never printed on the NASDAQ 100 before, yes, you’ll not find one looking all the way back to 1984!
Ww
Comment:
Pi-cycle bottom just printed on the 8hr chart
The last time this happened on the 8hr was July 15th, 2021. A 60% move followed:
The last time this happened on the 8hr was July 15th, 2021. A 60% move followed:
Comment:
Still waiting for the weak hands to capitulate to $16.5k per an update some days ago to touch the upward trend line. Should happen before the end of the month.
On the last up the 'pi-cycle' bottoms are shown to be printing on the 8hr. It is worth mentioning previous daily pi-cycle bottoms were not actually the bottom but some days after price rallied. This is because, after all, the pi-cycle alerts are dependent on laggy moving averages.
On the last up the 'pi-cycle' bottoms are shown to be printing on the 8hr. It is worth mentioning previous daily pi-cycle bottoms were not actually the bottom but some days after price rallied. This is because, after all, the pi-cycle alerts are dependent on laggy moving averages.
Comment:
A new record on the weekly chart today, RSI <26 !! This is the lowest weekly RSI has ever been in Bitcoin's history.
I cannot pinpoint the exact bottom, a wick to $16k is still possible, however the candle body bottom will struggle to break $18.5 to $19k, there is huge historical support on this level. Look left.
After support is confirmed the bullish idea to $120k can be published. That will happen this year or just into Quarter 1 2023. Then we're have a proper crypto winter.
I cannot pinpoint the exact bottom, a wick to $16k is still possible, however the candle body bottom will struggle to break $18.5 to $19k, there is huge historical support on this level. Look left.
After support is confirmed the bullish idea to $120k can be published. That will happen this year or just into Quarter 1 2023. Then we're have a proper crypto winter.
Comment:
The alarm set to trigger on the historical trend line support just went off. There should be a strong reaction with this support.
Comment:
A lot of messages asking 'where's the bottom WW?" or to that effect.
I don't know. No one does. There's some crazy statistics floating around at the moment, however.
It is currently costing around $22k to mine one Bitcoin in North America. Miners in northern US states are operating at a net loss. It is interesting the network hash rate difficultly remains more than double that of July 2021 when price action crashed to $30k. Was asked, is it possible the network ceases to exist if charity miners decide to switch off? I don't know - but that's a thought provoking question. How is the network not experiencing significant processing issues right now?
Monthly and weekly RSI are at the lowest they've ever been. Period. Even after early historical sell offs of 80%+ RSI never fell as low.
My favourite statistic, almost all buyers in 2021 have exited the market. Sold lower than they bought. Who's selling now? According to glassnode, older wallets are responsible 3+ years are now selling! Can you imagine holding 3+ to 5+ years and selling in 2022 after a 70% correction. The mind completely boggles.
On the daily chart price action is approaching the 300-week moving average around $16.7-$17k area within a falling wedge. Price action has never before broken this MA. Price action has until July 10th to get there.
I don't know. No one does. There's some crazy statistics floating around at the moment, however.
It is currently costing around $22k to mine one Bitcoin in North America. Miners in northern US states are operating at a net loss. It is interesting the network hash rate difficultly remains more than double that of July 2021 when price action crashed to $30k. Was asked, is it possible the network ceases to exist if charity miners decide to switch off? I don't know - but that's a thought provoking question. How is the network not experiencing significant processing issues right now?
Monthly and weekly RSI are at the lowest they've ever been. Period. Even after early historical sell offs of 80%+ RSI never fell as low.
My favourite statistic, almost all buyers in 2021 have exited the market. Sold lower than they bought. Who's selling now? According to glassnode, older wallets are responsible 3+ years are now selling! Can you imagine holding 3+ to 5+ years and selling in 2022 after a 70% correction. The mind completely boggles.
On the daily chart price action is approaching the 300-week moving average around $16.7-$17k area within a falling wedge. Price action has never before broken this MA. Price action has until July 10th to get there.
Trade closed manually:
**capitulation over**
Price action has finally landed on the 200-week moving average on the weekly chart. A 'incredible buy' signal is printing **The first ever on the weekly Bitcoin chart** Give it a few weeks, price action action will be back above $30k.
Can I just congratulate the weak hands for feeding the 5%, your services do not go unnoticed. I don’t mean to be crass, honestly the market wouldn’t be the same without you. Club 5% needs exit liquidity at $120k before the end of quarter 1, 2023 - see you then club 95%!
Price action has finally landed on the 200-week moving average on the weekly chart. A 'incredible buy' signal is printing **The first ever on the weekly Bitcoin chart** Give it a few weeks, price action action will be back above $30k.
Can I just congratulate the weak hands for feeding the 5%, your services do not go unnoticed. I don’t mean to be crass, honestly the market wouldn’t be the same without you. Club 5% needs exit liquidity at $120k before the end of quarter 1, 2023 - see you then club 95%!
Comment:
Ha! That image should be club 95% on the steps ;)
Comment:
How beautiful was that trend line? You know what happens next, look left!
Comment:
“Elon Musk's Tesla sells most of its Bitcoin holdings”
Club 95% sells the dip. Buy high slow low, that’s the ticket.
The last couple of months of selling pressure was coming from somewhere and it wasn’t retail. Had my suspicions it was either Elon or Saylor.
Saylor is now probably thinking, if my buddy Elon is doing it…
www.bbc.com/news/business-62246367
Club 95% sells the dip. Buy high slow low, that’s the ticket.
The last couple of months of selling pressure was coming from somewhere and it wasn’t retail. Had my suspicions it was either Elon or Saylor.
Saylor is now probably thinking, if my buddy Elon is doing it…
www.bbc.com/news/business-62246367
Comment:
Have you noticed a lot of bullish ideas recently published by myself following the market capitulation are now met with anger and despair? With a lot calling for lower lows? This is fascinating. From a contrarian point of view the feedback is invaluable, many market participants are so bearish that it is actually bullish.
Look up tradingview ideas on the S&P 500, I think I might be the only one publishing a long/bullish idea!
Look up tradingview ideas on the S&P 500, I think I might be the only one publishing a long/bullish idea!
BTC
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Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
No one knows. But here's something to look out for, $16.8k. Price action has never before put even a wick through the 300-week (green line) moving average.
If the 300-week fails to act as support then consider $13.8k, that is the monthly support. It will take a lot of selling pressure to break those monthly candles.