Prove me wrong. But Stock to flow model will not hold!
First off this time is not different. It's all same, all market psychology. After all, we are human beings with similar greed and fear.
Why you may ask?
Simple Reasons:
1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below.
2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction.
3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought.
4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume.
5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD.
When?
- I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months.
How to survive?
- Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings.
- OR Sell everything.
- Buy bonds.
I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
Why you may ask?
Simple Reasons:
1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below.
2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction.
3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought.
4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume.
5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD.
When?
- I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months.
How to survive?
- Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings.
- OR Sell everything.
- Buy bonds.
I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
Stock2Flow model. How I believe it would react in the face of a black swan!