Yesterday i went long again at 6600 and said i would add until 6500 with a stop close below it. Even said we would probably see a false breakout before choosing the direction! Exactly that happened when we made that fast drop to 6500 and went up to 6600 just as fast.
I gave a clue to why i thought i knew what was happening in my previous analysis but i said i would not give away all my secrets. Already did that more than enough.
I still have this position and won't be closing it soon. I really think we can see some higher prices now in the 8K levels. Maybe even higher, but that depends on how strong this rally will be. The formation i am seeing here is a . That big black line will probably be the resistance line of this formation. The purple line i drew there, is just a possible scenario, doesn't mean it will follow it exactly so don't stare blindly at it please.
My early followers know i am a big bear about this market for a long time now and nothing has changed yet! Only if we would see a break of the 9200 and 10K i would start to change my mind a bit. So i am riding this wave up and will try to build up a very big short position IF we reach the 8K levels. My followers know i can easily change my mind about this trade any second, but until know it's just a clear lift off for me. Biggest challenge for now will the 7200ish level. I think if we can push through the 7100/7200 we could easily see a fast jump towards the 7400/7500. Around the 7200/7500 i will probably start to close a % of my position to reduce risk and take some profit. I did it last week and since we dropped from the 7500 it was a very good decision. Never get to greedy!! Ideally we will see a bigger below the 7500/7400 so people will think the resistance is to big.
Alts are showing small break out's, showing solid bottom formations so i think momentum will start to go in favor of the bull coming week. But always be very aware of false breakouts, they have happened countless times the last few months. This market has been showing extreme weakness the last month, don't forget that!
And please don't forget to like this idea if you think i deserve it :)
My previous analysis. Read it (and others if you want to learn something, including the many updates. Good luck :)
It's difficult to tell what's happening, i see big sell orders coming up around 7000 and getting bought with some big buy orders of 50 to 100 BTC (which i have not seen in a while). But these sell orders kept coming again. But i can't put my finger on it yet what i could mean.
Just going to leave it and ignore it, been thinking to much already lately :)
I would like to see this flag break upwards within the hour
Keep the likes coming guys, you have almost put me in the nr 1 spot again :) Thanks
I have moved my stop to my entry level, i am risking my profit because i don't want to be shaken out this time if price should fall even more.
Don't forget to like guys, i am out for half a day, will try to keep you posted with my mobile if something big happens. Good luck
Anyway, price has to push through now, i don't want to see price dropping below that support line. I will close half my position if we drop below that red area around 6900/6950. Just to lock in some profit of my trade from the 65xx and to reduce risk. We are still inside that big triangle, no real break out yet. So chances increase slightly that we could be looking up the support line again. I am still expecting higher prices and nothing has changed so far. But i do want to see volume kicking in, probably will when we break the triangle and the 7100/7200.
It's fighting the 7100/7150 resistance now. Things are looking better now, i do want to see some follow through now. As you can see below in the chart, it should stay above that blue line to keep bullish momentum high.
Don't forget to like guys
I think i deserve more like so far it has been perfect. I am calling it a day, i will post a new update tomorrow and maybe a new analysis if like get above 800 :) Squeeze it above 800 LOL :)
Usually a correction on a wave is always fast, but not like this! It's bothering me that it dropped this fast and so much. Price looked quite stable until now, but the highs were only getting slightly higher. I know this is a weak signal, but my assumption was still that the 7100/7200 area was a big resistance and we just had to show patience.
Will try to post a new analysis later today. For now it's just tricky. If your not already in with a position, it's best to stay out and wait. Good luck trading :)
I am just getting to many mixed signals still. This bear flag has become to big to be very reliable, it does showing some signs that it is making a bearish wedge right now. But the bigger picture shows a higher high and of course my own way of looking at the market still says we have to go up from here. But the US tax on crypto issue just keeps spinning in my mind. Because this market is just so small, even a couple of hundred million can put a lot of pressure on this market.
Month ago the Mt. Gox trustee was blamed for crashing the whole market since the ATH, with only 400 million worth of BTC. Than how much pressure should this give the market than.
I have been telling for months than BTC is going down on the long term and that view has not changed at all. Because this market has been damaged way to much and unless some real fundamental things start to change, i will change my view as well.
However, as i have been telling many times before, the market moves in waves and i just still think we have to make another move up before we break the 6K again. If this US tax issue was not playing a role, i would go long without a doubt and maybe even a bigger position to take profit in the 7K levels and to leave some for the 8K levels. But the selling pressure just continues and i just can't tell if it's a natural move (normal buyers and sellers choosing direction) or that many people are forced to sell now.
TA translates a combination of many factors into a chart. But exceptional things, like the Mt. Gox selling and now the US taxes (assuming people will sell crypto to pay them) are not part of a natural process. Eventually they DO become part of it, because when people know the facts they become a part of the trading decisions they make.
I can keep on going but it just gets to complicated so i am going to leave it with this. Best advice i can give now, is just don't trade between 6500/7200.
I am still long since this morning at 6710 after making a small short trade on a wedge BTC made. It's a very small position because i know the risks are very high. I have put the stop just below the 6500 and my target? I don't know yet, i will determine that IF we break upwards. For now we in a range between 6600/6800 and hopefully we will get a break out (up or down) when the US traders wake up in an hour or 2.
I will post this in a new analysis, so save your comments on this for the new Idea i will post
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I'm harpooning a whale so probably gona keep that short open till 4.2
See you later! :-)
those bulls though take every single correction for a reversal