Bitcoin - where is the price going? - BTCUSD

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Despite that most of the news are OK for Bitcoin , the price went down. There is no clear evidence that it is going up or down. Generally, There are multiple resistance levels above bitcoin now that makes it more likely to drop . These are the most likely scenarios.

1. As you can see on the chart, the two black lines form an ascending triangle . The price broke it and started to descend (note the red and green vertical arrows). The projected price is around $5600.
Despite that this scenario will send prices back below $6000, this will form a typical double bottom with a potential reversal at this point that should send the prices up to $18000 (note the yellow and blue vertical rectangles). Again, the break above the black horizontal line should occur with very good volume to be considered a reversal. Hopefully, we learned something from the failed inverse head and shoulder earlier.

2. Elliot waves: If we considered the ABC pattern in green to be wave 4, Wave 5 should take the price down to around $1200. This was the price of Bitcoin in March 2017, one year ago. This is based on that wave 5 will retrace to 100% of wave three. It can go shallower or deeper but based on the previous retracements of the 4 previous waves, this should be the most common retracement level.

3. Another scenario is that bitcoin will stay in the same range between the horizontal black and blue lines (around $9000-11800). Something that can go for months. It can be profitable to trade the range too and wait for signs of breaking above/below support/resistance lines to ride the new trend.

Most indicators at this point are either useless or giving contradicting signals. You can see the indecisiveness of the market as the price is moving in a very narrow range for the last few days. 4 days ago, there was a hammer candlestick and I thought that the price is going to go up from there but it failed. Two days later there was another bullish engulfing pattern and again failed to push the prices up. So, trade carefully.

Happy trading everybody.
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