RIGHT NOW: MAJOR Bitcoin 10,000 USD Rejection - Is It Too Late?
Dear Friends!
D4rkEnergY is finally back. I have been so busy introducing all our new VIP Members to our forum, that I didn't have time to keep you updated. Sorry. But we don't have any time to waste. We are right now at a really crucial moment for Bitcoin!
Let's jump in right away and take a look at the 1D BTCUSD Chart! Bitcoin has shown a lot of bullish signs the couple of days even though it was obvious, that momentum was slowing down. For a long time we were just under 10k, but we never really managed to pick up a real fight. Seen from a TA-perspective we were also against all odds, We were in a ascending wedge, we had bearish divergence and 10,000 USD is THE biggest EVEN number, which acts as huge resistance.
Seen from psychological point of view it's such an important level to go through, since it will create belief in the market. But this time, the bulls didn't manage to surprise us, we fell out of the wedge and down to 9,600 USD where we are now. We were at one point just under 9,500, which is a SUPER important level for the bulls to hold - mainly for two reasons.
1. If we go much lower we will fall through our uptrend channel (in purple), which also means we will have an Elliott Wave failure - if we can avoid it we still have a good chance to continue up and finish our 5th EW at 11,700 USD inside the channel.
2. If we fall through we will most likely go down to the next support level which is around 9,100-9,200 USD (where we have the EMA100 and another uptrend line). In isolation it's not really disastrously, but it will definitely ruin the optimism and trust in the market, which we have seen build op slowly the last 3 weeks, where we also have seen altcoins starting to gain more dominance compared to BTC in the global crypto market, which is positive!
MIXED SIGNALS:
- Take a look at the RSI and the Regular Bearish Divergence. This normally predicts, that our uptrend is over, and we need to go into a reversal. BUT. We have seen Bitcoin ignoring these divergences again and again since this uptrend started, so I will not put too much weight into this.
- We just had an EMA cross over which is a bullish sign.
- Accumulation and distribution. Pretty neutral. If we look at the Money Flow Index (MFI) we are at 55.
- Lack of volume - both bears and bulls. Low volatility the last 3 days.
CONCLUSION:
Everything taking into consideration I believe we will go up, and through 10k - Our first target is the yellow box. As long as we stay inside our uptrend channel everything should be fine. We can slowly grind us up and go in via an ascending triangle or we might see one of our famous spikes. This can happen within a couple of hours or it can take 2 days. It's very hard to tell.
This is definitely not an easy situation and it's not at all unlikely, that we once again will be disappointed and get rejected before the finish line, and get rejected hard like last time when we tried to pass 11,800 USD via the big inverse HS pattern, where everyone also were super bullish.
But let's go with the bulls for now!!
D4 Loves You <3[/b
And as always. Please leave a LIKE guys - Thanks in advance :)
D4rkEnergY is finally back. I have been so busy introducing all our new VIP Members to our forum, that I didn't have time to keep you updated. Sorry. But we don't have any time to waste. We are right now at a really crucial moment for Bitcoin!
Let's jump in right away and take a look at the 1D BTCUSD Chart! Bitcoin has shown a lot of bullish signs the couple of days even though it was obvious, that momentum was slowing down. For a long time we were just under 10k, but we never really managed to pick up a real fight. Seen from a TA-perspective we were also against all odds, We were in a ascending wedge, we had bearish divergence and 10,000 USD is THE biggest EVEN number, which acts as huge resistance.
Seen from psychological point of view it's such an important level to go through, since it will create belief in the market. But this time, the bulls didn't manage to surprise us, we fell out of the wedge and down to 9,600 USD where we are now. We were at one point just under 9,500, which is a SUPER important level for the bulls to hold - mainly for two reasons.
1. If we go much lower we will fall through our uptrend channel (in purple), which also means we will have an Elliott Wave failure - if we can avoid it we still have a good chance to continue up and finish our 5th EW at 11,700 USD inside the channel.
2. If we fall through we will most likely go down to the next support level which is around 9,100-9,200 USD (where we have the EMA100 and another uptrend line). In isolation it's not really disastrously, but it will definitely ruin the optimism and trust in the market, which we have seen build op slowly the last 3 weeks, where we also have seen altcoins starting to gain more dominance compared to BTC in the global crypto market, which is positive!
MIXED SIGNALS:
- Take a look at the RSI and the Regular Bearish Divergence. This normally predicts, that our uptrend is over, and we need to go into a reversal. BUT. We have seen Bitcoin ignoring these divergences again and again since this uptrend started, so I will not put too much weight into this.
- We just had an EMA cross over which is a bullish sign.
- Accumulation and distribution. Pretty neutral. If we look at the Money Flow Index (MFI) we are at 55.
- Lack of volume - both bears and bulls. Low volatility the last 3 days.
CONCLUSION:
Everything taking into consideration I believe we will go up, and through 10k - Our first target is the yellow box. As long as we stay inside our uptrend channel everything should be fine. We can slowly grind us up and go in via an ascending triangle or we might see one of our famous spikes. This can happen within a couple of hours or it can take 2 days. It's very hard to tell.
This is definitely not an easy situation and it's not at all unlikely, that we once again will be disappointed and get rejected before the finish line, and get rejected hard like last time when we tried to pass 11,800 USD via the big inverse HS pattern, where everyone also were super bullish.
But let's go with the bulls for now!!
D4 Loves You <3[/b
And as always. Please leave a LIKE guys - Thanks in advance :)
Comment:
Welcome back to TradingView D4rkEnergY, and to the uncertainty with the BTC-Market :)
The bulls didn't surprise us with one of those long spikes we have seen before. Look at the bulls volume, when they finally tried to fight back. All under MA20 Volume. And if you take a look at the 2 h chart you can clearly see a bear flag is taking form, which also took us down.
Expect we well fall further - to my red box (9,100-9,200 USD). We here have 2 scenarios, which also again are both likely to play imo. But let me first say, that there are so much uncertainty in the market at the moment.
1. Just the fact, that we didn't make it before the key level at 10,000 USD - (In isolation 9,xxx USD is good, right?) - But as I told you it creates a lot of disbelief in the market - It's second time BTC within some months take the hope from us - and that is also what you clearly can see around from different top traders have all kind of different opinions now.
2. American SEC is today Monday going to discuss whether or not they going to classify Ethereum as a SECURITY. IF they do so it can have really bad influence on the Global Crypto Market and we will see a big drop in prices all around.
Here are the 2 scenarios:
1. We have huge support at my red box - and honestly we really needed a retracement. It has been clear that bulls lost momentum right before the finish line, and the greed vanished. We might very well go up from here. It will give us this long jump we need to go through 10k. We also have a very strong (uptrend line in purple) But if you want to get LONG wait for confirmation.
2. Because of the uncertainty, we might also fall to the next level and my other red box! Again - if you want to get short wait for confirmation.
Honestly I really don't hope we will too much lower than 9k, that it would create even more disbelief in the rally for now.
D4 <3
The bulls didn't surprise us with one of those long spikes we have seen before. Look at the bulls volume, when they finally tried to fight back. All under MA20 Volume. And if you take a look at the 2 h chart you can clearly see a bear flag is taking form, which also took us down.
Expect we well fall further - to my red box (9,100-9,200 USD). We here have 2 scenarios, which also again are both likely to play imo. But let me first say, that there are so much uncertainty in the market at the moment.
1. Just the fact, that we didn't make it before the key level at 10,000 USD - (In isolation 9,xxx USD is good, right?) - But as I told you it creates a lot of disbelief in the market - It's second time BTC within some months take the hope from us - and that is also what you clearly can see around from different top traders have all kind of different opinions now.
2. American SEC is today Monday going to discuss whether or not they going to classify Ethereum as a SECURITY. IF they do so it can have really bad influence on the Global Crypto Market and we will see a big drop in prices all around.
Here are the 2 scenarios:
1. We have huge support at my red box - and honestly we really needed a retracement. It has been clear that bulls lost momentum right before the finish line, and the greed vanished. We might very well go up from here. It will give us this long jump we need to go through 10k. We also have a very strong (uptrend line in purple) But if you want to get LONG wait for confirmation.
2. Because of the uncertainty, we might also fall to the next level and my other red box! Again - if you want to get short wait for confirmation.
Honestly I really don't hope we will too much lower than 9k, that it would create even more disbelief in the rally for now.
D4 <3
Comment:
We saw a bounce just around 9,2xx, which was expected, and the bulls have managed to hold this level for a while!
BUT - if the bulls don't manage to go up very soon and through 9,400 USD, where we have big resistance (EMA50), it will just be a matter of time before the bulls get exhausted and another bear flag will take us down to around 9,160 USD, where our next support level is (uptrend line and EMA100).
The last green long legged doji candle (with volume at MA20) give us some hope! But we really have to move fast now!
D4 <3
BUT - if the bulls don't manage to go up very soon and through 9,400 USD, where we have big resistance (EMA50), it will just be a matter of time before the bulls get exhausted and another bear flag will take us down to around 9,160 USD, where our next support level is (uptrend line and EMA100).
The last green long legged doji candle (with volume at MA20) give us some hope! But we really have to move fast now!
D4 <3
Comment:
Those dirty bears keep pushing! It's pretty clear, how the 10,000 USD key level has affected the bulls. They are panicking, and it has created a lot of disbelief in the market.
I can see people are talking about 12k still. Some are talking about 6k. People are seeing bear and bull traps every where.
In my opinion we are in a situation where we only can take one step at a time. Level for level. Bulls need to hold this level and go above 9,4k before we can trust in them.
If the bears break my red box, we can expect 8,8k and we can take it from there.
I can see people are talking about 12k still. Some are talking about 6k. People are seeing bear and bull traps every where.
In my opinion we are in a situation where we only can take one step at a time. Level for level. Bulls need to hold this level and go above 9,4k before we can trust in them.
If the bears break my red box, we can expect 8,8k and we can take it from there.
Comment:
That was pretty accurate - said bounce at 9,160 - it was 9,180 USD - Our hope is still that the drop from 9,9k to 9,2k just was a shake out to kill all the longs, and now will go above 10k.
BUT.. We still need to through 9,4k before we really can trust in this attack!
BUT.. We still need to through 9,4k before we really can trust in this attack!
Look at those ugly long red candles and the bearish volume, which both are above the MA20 volume and are increasing. It is super important for the bulls to hold this level for another 5 minutes, so we get this long legged Doji candle, with small body and wicks, which shows that the bulls are able to fight back and try to get a reversal.
Also MACD is showing bearish divergence, and a bearish MACD cross has happened not long time.
So there is no doubt, that the bears under normal circumstances would be favorite. The reason why I still believe more in the bulls is most of all because the bulls have been in a similar so many times before the last couple weeks, where they right in time jump in, and take over before it is too late.
As I said before. It's not easy!