snowsilence
Long

BITCOIN: INTRA-BUBBLE LOWS PERIOD = 36(+/-2.5) WEEKS

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
This expanded version of a my prior published idea "GENERIC POST-BUBBLE STRONG REVERSAL INDICATOR" helps illustrate its point more clearly. I've linked it to the aforementioned related one, which you should consult to obtain the original details/description.

※ Since indicators do not refresh, you may view an active version of the chart here — https://www.tradingview.com/e/uGwzXJ0V/ — to see it vindicates the accuracy of the predicted support levels.

Observations:

•The sharp crashes which occur after a bubble has peaked tend to first exhibit a significant recovery/pullback rally prior to the second/subsequent further major drops before interim bottom. What I show again here is that you can tell when that second crash has recovered because the relative percentage of RSI increase will be at least as large as it was in the case of the first one. I've shown the pairs of them above in red and green, respectively.

•What also tends to be the case is that once this RSI 'bottom' has been established it acts as support against further RSI-crashing below that point, as well as that once the recovery level is exceed that will act as a secondary support as well.

•There is an approximately 252±17.5–day cycle of the intra-bubble bottoms, as measure from their peaks.
I also believe that a larger 'double-bubble' structure adheres to an approximately 448–day cycle, I call an "EPOCH", over which the degree of exponential growth accelerates. See my linked chart "EPOCH 3: A 60-Week–Long Bubblecast" for further insights.

Note: As with all my charts, these findings are statistical. I do not pretend to have any insider information or special knowledge of market psychology which should contribute additional meaning to these observations.
snapshot
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snowsilence PRO snowsilence
2 years ago
While this chart image is displayed essentially as intended, a few small errors were introduced as a result of a deficit in the functioning of the “trend angle” tool, which does not adequately handle the dichotomy of relative vs. absolute angle/scale invariance. As this is a ‘1W’ view, the propagated error was enough to spur a noteworthy difference. — As with the RSI chart image I posted in the comments of my idea “GENERIC POST-BUBBLE STRONG REVERSAL INDICATOR”, the image above is meant to function as a teaser chart for an upcoming publication in which this error will have be corrected.
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ItsAboutSharing
2 years ago
So, are you expecting a turn upwards in the next 7 days (+-14 days and we are 7 days past the 252d)?
It does feel like we are getting close...
-1 Reply
snowsilence PRO ItsAboutSharing
2 years ago
•We are already in the 'recovery' phase so, yes, I am expecting a turn upwards.

I think you are confusing yourself. I tried to make the basics clear in the chart, as well as in the description in the previous idea of mine that this is based on, which is linked to this idea above, in the "Related Ideas" section. If you read these, they should answer your questions.

•The red horizontal bars indicate the uncertainty surrounding the bottoms (illustrated by vertical bars), giving the time-frame in which the intra-bubble lows occur, which is the whole point.

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I thought I would post what this chart looks like today, since the indicators don't update along with price data. — As you can see it was extremely accurate:
snapshot
+1 Reply
lowstrife MOD snowsilence
2 years ago
Absolutely fantastic. I will be saving this chart for next time we come around. I made a post on that Chinese rebound too that this "felt" like it was the last one. The market structure was different, the alt-coins were booming again... Incredible.
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