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Fractal Analysis – The Bitcoin Bear Market to end on July 2018

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi everyone, this is Bitcoin Guru. We have a really important update on Bitcoin which we have mainly been following closed doors with our subscribers for the past few weeks. Since our last long-term fractal update, the bull trend failed to confirm after the rising wedge broke down at $11,700 and we started a steep downtrend which made new lows at $8,350 few days ago. We fortunately, have been in fiat (USD, EUR) since the rising wedge broke down and attempted to rebuy at $9,200-9,000 when the support was hit the first time last week, but thankfully our stoploss was hit right before the sell off to $8,350 happened. Since then, we recommended to stay in fiat or Tether for the past several days eyeing some key levels near the bottom of the bearish parallel channel .

Unlike others on Tradingview, we did not recommend our subscribers to buy any ALTS or TOKENs long-term yet. These are risky recommendations especially without a confirmation of a final Bitcoin bottom or a long consolidation before the next Megabull starts. It is very important to follow traders that would not put your portfolio at risk. Always do your due diligence when considering charts.

That said, in a bear market, we always aim to trade the bigger trades which yield bigger rewards/profit and reducing the time spent watching the chart by buying only Bitcoin when it is extremely oversold. Try to to hold fiat most of the time, then only buy Bitcoin at specific support levels and sell quickly at major resistances. Any mistakes in the bear market can be very costly.

That said, lets now dive in on a detailed and real analysis of the current Bitcoin Bear Market:

The chart meticulously depicts a blue fractal of the 2014 Bear Market. As you see it overlays very well at the moment with the bear channel of the current trend. However, note that fractals are not foolproof and may stop working at anytime!

Currently Bitcoin and the entire Crypto Market is in a strong Bear Market. Based on this fractal analysis and trading analysis we are expect Bitcoin to bottom on April 20, 2018 at $2,949-2,800 and with a potential wick to $2,140. The Bull Market could resume as early as July 3rd, 2018.

Let's summarize below why we have been bearish long-term by going through key indicators and patterns we have considered at Bitcoin Guru in the past weeks and months:
1. We made new lows below $9,260 which is the lowest support we had since end of February --> bearish
2. The large IH&S was cancelled by making a new low down to $8,350
3. We double topped at $11,700 - bearish reversal
4. Were within large bearish parallel channels which is typical of a Bear Market
5. The 1W momentum crossed bearish last week, last time this happened was on October 10, 2016
6. The bull trend was clearly rejected on March 4 following a rising wedge and the failure to break past the top of the log bull channel at $12,000. Also, the 1H 2H 4H 6H 12H 1D Bands squeezes resolved to the downside. Subsequently, the trend became bearish
7. Bull traps are numerous, typical of a bear market
8. We've been in a Bull Market for 2 years now, it should be expected to have a somewhat moderate and sizable Bear Market in return. This is typical of Bitcoin's historical cycles.
9. Our Guru cycle custom indicator confirmed the trend/direction as bearish right before the cycle close on March 21st as expected of it
10. Google search interest on Bitcoin and Crypto has waned down a lot. This typically happens when we enter a Bear Market. Interest fades until the next bull cycle starts again

At last, based on our fractal analysis and trading analysis, here are key support levels that are good buying entries:
$7,100-6,800
$5,540
$4,700-4,400 (recommended entry)
$2,949-2,800 (potential final bottom for the current bear market)
$2,300-2,140 ( possible only with maximum volatility – recommended entry)

Let us know in the comments section below what ALTS or TOKENS pair you'd like us to publish next!
Mar 17
Trade active: We are currently expecting Bitcoin to drop to $7,100-6,800 support as the weekly time-frame gets a new candle tomorrow. If that support does not hold then expect a bigger washdown to $5,540 support or if volatility picks up then $4,700-4,400 bottom of the bear parallel channel

The momentum on all the timeframes remains bearish. Our own custom indicator points to a big volatile move which we think will be a big washdown/drop before March 21

Mar 18
Comment: This was an expected bull trap seen on our fractal, unfortunately Bitcoin did not go lower to $7,100-6,800 for us to ride this short-term trade up to $8,300-7,900.

We are also actively watching to see if we attempt a double bottom which could mean the failure of the Bear Fractal were following. Remember guys, fractals will not always work and will eventually break and fail

Mar 20
Comment: Bitcoin is currently area heading towards the 1D midband at $9,500 resistance which is the top of the linear bear parallel channel as well before more downside.

In turns, it seems we are breaking away from the fractal (remember fractals are not foolproof). Since few days ago, at Bitcoin Guru we have switched to standard TA while keeping an eye on the fractal. Refer to our twitter channel for the current rising wedge scenario we have plotted.

Mar 22
Comment: Bulls failed in completing an IH&S and reaching the 1D midband at $9,500 which was the target of the falling wedge.

Now the 1H 2H 4H 6H 12H 1D Bands are squeezing tight in preparation of a big move. At the moment the move seems to be resolving to the downside in favor of the bears or a continuation of the Bear Market.

Our stoploss will be at anytime the 1D midband is broken to the upside with volume. That will cancel this fractal and trade.

Mar 23
Comment: big big step from the bulls in the past 24 hours. They managed to reverse back up from the $8200s lows we put 13 hours ago and retest the 1D midband which is now at $9,050. The 1D candle closed bullish and we opened a new daily candle 2 hours ago right near the 1D midband.

A break out past $9,250 would mean that the big move is in favor of the bulls. And that an overextended and brutal bear market like 2014 as seen on the blue fractal is out of the way.

Bull confirmation will still be needed with a clean break out past the top of the bear linear channel currently at $9,600-9,500 and the top of the log bear parallel channel at $10,100 roughly.

Mar 25
Comment: Stoploss hit at $8500.
Ugly rejection on the 1D midband. At the moment the move seems to be resolving to the downside. Confirms with a break under $7900

Mar 25
Comment: We just got out new daily candle and we keep making lower highs and lower lows pushed by the 1D midband resistance which is now at $8,700-8,730. This is typical bear market behavior and so far in line with our readjusted bear market fractal from 2014.

Bulls need to breaks past the $8,730 to make a statement and past $9,300+ to make a big come back or keep Bitcoin above $7,900 in sideways till April 10.
Bears need to push Bitcoin below $8,200 to make new lower lows and break past $7,900 to activate the downtrend again to $5,500-5,000 and wick to $4,700-4,400. Preferably this should be achieved before April 5-10.

Mar 26
Comment: Bitcoin pushed under $8,200 since my latest update. We are pending a move within the next few days under $7,900 to activate the Bear fractal

Mar 28
Comment: And I love it when a plan comes together ;)

Apr 02
Comment: Bitcoin taking a break and bouncing after hitting $6,500 support. Upside should be limited to $7,400-7,500 resistance roughly which is the 12H midband before more downside.

Apr 04
Comment: perfectly hit our top at $7500-7400 and washdown ongoing!
back to black background as most of the feedback I got in the past weeks suggested.

Also guys, I see a lot of top posters on tradingview spamming daily short-term charts to get desperate attention and subscribers. One thing I learned and teach at Bitcoin Guru is not to overtrade during sideways and unpredictable market moves that you will see plenty in the bear market.

You are not only wasting your time but you will also lose money and stay awake for nights and nights while not only you are not sure why you are trading these short-term moves but also the original publisher has no clue where it might be going. Instead in a bear market, I recommend taking a step back and wait for the bigger / more profitable trades with high volatility washdowns which we will buy when the market is super oversold.

That said for the time being stay in fiat/cash, and set buy orders through $5500-5400 and 5000-4686 and sit back worry free

Apr 08
Comment: Bitcoin has officially diverged from this bear market fractal at the $6,000 levels.

We will keep monitoring this fractal as we may resume the downside to $5,500-5,400 and lower down the road (unless we are able to confirm $6,000 as the final bottom)
Apr 09
Comment:
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@BitcoinGuru, thanks for your work! Regarding the fractal from 2014 - does it follow the current chart day by day, i.e. what happens on April 7th 2014 is charted against April 7th 2018 or the ratio is larger, i.e. the end of the blue fractal corresponds to July 2018, but is from, say Mid-2015 - 18 months after top in 2013 (i.e. about 3 to 1 ratio day-by-day). Thanks for clarifying it for us.
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Dear BTC Guru, I do love your analysis; but... Are you really sure that this background colour of you chart is really good?! Omg! I need to increase the bright of my display to its maximum and get my eyes super close to in attempt see mainly the orange lines =***(
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BitcoinGuru lc_parente
@lc_parente, thank you for the feedback. I will switch back the background to black
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This plays out we gonna make tons of money on the way down...to prep for the next bull run once the next halvening event happens two years from now ;-)
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