Unlike others on Tradingview, we did not recommend our subscribers to buy any ALTS or TOKENs long-term yet. These are risky recommendations especially without a confirmation of a final Bitcoin bottom or a long consolidation before the next Megabull starts. It is very important to follow traders that would not put your portfolio at risk. Always do your due diligence when considering charts.
That said, in a bear market, we always aim to trade the bigger trades which yield bigger rewards/profit and reducing the time spent watching the chart by buying only Bitcoin when it is extremely oversold. Try to to hold fiat most of the time, then only buy Bitcoin at specific support levels and sell quickly at major resistances. Any mistakes in the bear market can be very costly.
That said, lets now dive in on a detailed and real analysis of the current Bitcoin Bear Market:
The chart meticulously depicts a blue of the 2014 Bear Market. As you see it overlays very well at the moment with the of the current trend. However, note that fractals are not foolproof and may stop working at anytime!
Currently Bitcoin and the entire Crypto Market is in a strong Bear Market. Based on this analysis and trading analysis we are expect Bitcoin to bottom on April 20, 2018 at $2,949-2,800 and with a potential wick to $2,140. The Bull Market could resume as early as July 3rd, 2018.
Let's summarize below why we have been long-term by going through key indicators and patterns we have considered at Bitcoin Guru in the past weeks and months:
1. We made new lows below $9,260 which is the lowest support we had since end of February -->
2. The large IH&S was cancelled by making a new low down to $8,350
3. We double topped at $11,700 - reversal
4. Were within large parallel channels which is typical of a Bear Market
5. The 1W momentum crossed last week, last time this happened was on October 10, 2016
6. The bull trend was clearly rejected on March 4 following a and the failure to break past the top of the log at $12,000. Also, the 1H 2H 4H 6H 12H 1D Bands squeezes resolved to the downside. Subsequently, the trend became
7. Bull traps are numerous, typical of a bear market
8. We've been in a Bull Market for 2 years now, it should be expected to have a somewhat moderate and sizable Bear Market in return. This is typical of Bitcoin's historical cycles.
9. Our Guru cycle custom indicator confirmed the trend/direction as right before the cycle close on March 21st as expected of it
10. Google search interest on Bitcoin and Crypto has waned down a lot. This typically happens when we enter a Bear Market. Interest fades until the next bull cycle starts again
At last, based on our analysis and trading analysis, here are key support levels that are good buying entries:
$4,700-4,400 (recommended entry)
$2,949-2,800 (potential final bottom for the current bear market)
$2,300-2,140 ( possible only with maximum – recommended entry)
Let us know in the comments section below what ALTS or TOKENS pair you'd like us to publish next!
The momentum on all the timeframes remains bearish. Our own custom indicator points to a big volatile move which we think will be a big washdown/drop before March 21
We are also actively watching to see if we attempt a double bottom which could mean the failure of the Bear Fractal were following. Remember guys, fractals will not always work and will eventually break and fail
In turns, it seems we are breaking away from the fractal (remember fractals are not foolproof). Since few days ago, at Bitcoin Guru we have switched to standard TA while keeping an eye on the fractal. Refer to our twitter channel for the current rising wedge scenario we have plotted.
Now the 1H 2H 4H 6H 12H 1D Bands are squeezing tight in preparation of a big move. At the moment the move seems to be resolving to the downside in favor of the bears or a continuation of the Bear Market.
Our stoploss will be at anytime the 1D midband is broken to the upside with volume. That will cancel this fractal and trade.
A break out past $9,250 would mean that the big move is in favor of the bulls. And that an overextended and brutal bear market like 2014 as seen on the blue fractal is out of the way.
Bull confirmation will still be needed with a clean break out past the top of the bear linear channel currently at $9,600-9,500 and the top of the log bear parallel channel at $10,100 roughly.
Ugly rejection on the 1D midband. At the moment the move seems to be resolving to the downside. Confirms with a break under $7900
Bulls need to breaks past the $8,730 to make a statement and past $9,300+ to make a big come back or keep Bitcoin above $7,900 in sideways till April 10.
Bears need to push Bitcoin below $8,200 to make new lower lows and break past $7,900 to activate the downtrend again to $5,500-5,000 and wick to $4,700-4,400. Preferably this should be achieved before April 5-10.
back to black background as most of the feedback I got in the past weeks suggested.
Also guys, I see a lot of top posters on tradingview spamming daily short-term charts to get desperate attention and subscribers. One thing I learned and teach at Bitcoin Guru is not to overtrade during sideways and unpredictable market moves that you will see plenty in the bear market.
You are not only wasting your time but you will also lose money and stay awake for nights and nights while not only you are not sure why you are trading these short-term moves but also the original publisher has no clue where it might be going. Instead in a bear market, I recommend taking a step back and wait for the bigger / more profitable trades with high volatility washdowns which we will buy when the market is super oversold.
That said for the time being stay in fiat/cash, and set buy orders through $5500-5400 and 5000-4686 and sit back worry free
We will keep monitoring this fractal as we may resume the downside to $5,500-5,400 and lower down the road (unless we are able to confirm $6,000 as the final bottom)