Bearish Rising Wedge Broken, 12.5k Stall

BTC has finally broken out of its rising bearish wedge after creating a fabulous bulltrap on this B correction rally up to 16.5k, the max extension point. Such a evil trap, this sell off will probably reach a bottom at 12.5k where it should stall for awhile. If this is indeed the C wave correction as in my other ideas, we are going down pretty hard after 12.5k breaks. Remember to close your shorts before bounces on the way down, the waves are just illustration I don't have a clear target yet as I do those in real time.

Comment:

4 hours finally bend over, we are coming down from the oversold reason with plenty of room to correct. This sell off has only just begun. Now to see if the 15k buy wall will hold.

s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/g/GMWwiB6J.png

Comment:

15k buy wall pulled, now is just a matter of supply to finish the bear raid. For the time being, we should see a bounce around 14500 to end first impulse wave 1. Then bounce to 2 for a bull trap before the real selling begins.

Comment:

Called that 14500 bounce. Ok, cheat sheet for the wave down. I assume none of the waves are extended but most likely, wave 3 or 5 will extend pretty far. And this is also assuming that we wave 2 peak at 15k or 15.1k. Reason for that peak is cause support becomes resistance =) So pretty strange for it to go all the way to 15400 on this bull trap and break two minor resistance.

Don't blame me if the wave targets don't hit, its just a rough guideline that I use for myself and I do adjust them in real time. Just sharing for your benefit so you will donate some beer money to me =o

s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/k/K5XzMIM3.png

Comment:

I'm sure some of you made some good money off that short call at 15400. Don't be stingy now =) Its Christmas.

BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2

Comment:

Buying power here is stronger than I expected. Strange green candle appear where it shouldn't, possible peak of wave 2 might be 15400. Bears and Bulls are fighting for the control of the ball at the 15k line.

Might still be inside the bullish rising wedge if we try to expand it. ABCD is complete but one of the wave E to test 17k was missing previously. Manage your own shorts, i'm just giving a possible analysis here.

Comment:

This is what I mean by expanded wedge. BTC has done this before from 15k to 11.6k previously.
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/f/FPRIcN7e.png

Comment:

Likely going back up, based on the hourly. 4 hours still curving down. Can't beat bots, probably let them ping pong around. A break below 14500k would confirm that we are going down.

This is supposed to be a bull trap here, so it can be confusing like how it has been for the past few days. What is BTC doing!?
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...z/zilqnL2S_thumb.png

Comment:

Hm... here's a high res version.
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/x/XeOOfX2b.png

Comment:

The 14500 support held as expected and a bounced happened. At this point its two scenarios. A break above 15500 would take us up to test the 17k resistance line (highly unlikely to hit 17k, probably drop off halfway then down to do its correction) and a break on 14500 would bring us lower to the intended 12.5k zone.

Its still bearish overall but we cannot will the market. So we anticipate and wait for confirmation.

Comment:

Ok 14500 support broke so we are on track to go down towards 12.5k before we see a convincing bounce. That bounce will likely be another bull trap as we continue downwards again once the 12k support line broke.

This is pretty much it for this idea. Hope it helped you!

Comment:

Bulls have put up an impressive fight here to stall the downtrend in an attempt to push BTC back into its uptrend channel. The major support here is 13400 which needs to be broken and likely once broken will send us down into initial 12.5k target and a little more.

Time is almost running out for the bulls here and most likely will give up within the next few hours. Bulls need to break above 14500 to catch a breath here. We are now at block 501429 and is almost reaching 501451 for the much expected "fake SegWit2X" fork and airdrop some B2X tokens along with limited edition Satoshi coin. Once that fork is done, we should expect mass selloff.

Comment:

501451 block has been mined and a sell off happened at 14k right away, at the moment market sentiment will determine the direction. Not sure if people are buying because they are confused that they need to buy on 501451 and not before.

A break below 13400 support is still needed for confirmation to go lower and 14500 to go higher.

Comment:

Looks like a dead cat bounce off the 13400 support, this new found bottom will have to fend off selling pressure until it finally hold. Technicals are rather negative

Comment:

Possibility for short term reversal to 15200 / 16000 remains, not going to deny that. I would post an idea for if we get there. For now, I will just leave this idea as it is since it can go both way. I originally intended for us to already reach 12.5k by now, especially with the sell off earlier but it didn't happen, so i will explore other possibilities.

Comment:

It went upwards on a short term reversal towards 15200 as previously anticipated, and we are going back down again. I have created a new idea as promised at that point.