I figured today is a good day to point out all the detail as to why I am not bullish BTC right now. Could we see continuation and a higher high to $9,000s? Absolutely, but in my opinion it is not worth the risk/reward for me to be in a bullish position right now.
First factor is the longer term time frame. We are looking for weekly lower highs on the vast majority of larger cap coins. Knowing that, and knowing anything for BTC under $10,939 is a lower high, tells us even if we do get bullish continuation our top of the move is likely not that far behind it.
Next we have the daily time frame. We have changed the daily trend after building a base of support in the $7,700s, and we saw very little follow through, before giving the move back. We now have a battle with EMA12 daily resistance, and we are 6% away from seeing a higher high on the daily.
Bears are going to be looking at a break of $8,146 as a signal, and the only play here for bulls would be a bottom fishing play off that level. If it breaks, the odds of heading back towards $7,700 increase a good bit.
The good news for crypto bulls is there are some other coins like ZRX, BNB, etc that have different setups and have been seeing more bullish action. Keep an eye on BNB, if we get a monthly higher low there we will be looking for monthly higher lows on most coins.
As a trader, if I do not like the setup, I stick to all cash and wait as long as need be until I get a setup I like. In the meantime I trade other markets to remain patient. Already playing the ETH move from $183 to mid $190s satisfied my profit thirst for the current daily move!
First factor is the longer term time frame. We are looking for weekly lower highs on the vast majority of larger cap coins. Knowing that, and knowing anything for BTC under $10,939 is a lower high, tells us even if we do get bullish continuation our top of the move is likely not that far behind it.
Next we have the daily time frame. We have changed the daily trend after building a base of support in the $7,700s, and we saw very little follow through, before giving the move back. We now have a battle with EMA12 daily resistance, and we are 6% away from seeing a higher high on the daily.
Bears are going to be looking at a break of $8,146 as a signal, and the only play here for bulls would be a bottom fishing play off that level. If it breaks, the odds of heading back towards $7,700 increase a good bit.
The good news for crypto bulls is there are some other coins like ZRX, BNB, etc that have different setups and have been seeing more bullish action. Keep an eye on BNB, if we get a monthly higher low there we will be looking for monthly higher lows on most coins.
As a trader, if I do not like the setup, I stick to all cash and wait as long as need be until I get a setup I like. In the meantime I trade other markets to remain patient. Already playing the ETH move from $183 to mid $190s satisfied my profit thirst for the current daily move!
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