I have shown the 19,666 top as a Degree 1 Wave 3; however, it is possible that Wave 3 extends, meaning the current top is just Degree 2 Wave 1 of Degree 1 Wave 3. If that were the case, the current correction would be a Wave 2 correction at Degree 2, which would still imply that we might reach the targets shown in the 5,500 area.
I do not profess that the wave counts shown are 100% correct or that they are even the 'best' counts. I would ask that anyone who has an educated opinion, especially those who would consider themselves Elliotticians, please weigh in on either i) improvements to the wave count and/or ii) evidence that you see as to whether or not we are in a higher degree correction.
If enough traders do weigh in, I will summarize the results and we'll see if there is a consensus one way or the other.
Since the minor trendline support is still holding, and since the market has not yet hooked back to the first previous high, I am labelling this analysis as 'Long.' However, for the reasons stated above, it is Long with Caution! It is quite possible that if we do rally back to the 19,600 highs, it might be another test back with lower lows then forthcoming in the possible higher degree correction. So if we make it back to the high, you want to see strength going through the 19,600 without a significant pullback back underneath 19,600.
1. We have a repeating pattern in that we hit the 200 mov avg and the .882 retracement.
2. Sufficient volume to be a market bottom
3. The major coins are all up 18%-30%.
You can see the repeating pattern in the chart below. It is possible that the BTC will make one more low to the inner blue channel line shown in the chart. This potentially lower low would be in the 6600 area.
If you are inclined to buy now but want further confirmation, you can buy thru the high of the previous 240M bar (16:00) which is 9096.79 (BitStamp).
1. started off of the inner resistance channel line
2. found support at the 200 moving avg line
3. are 4 grid lines in length (so far)
4. made .882 corrections to the inner support channel lines.
If the similarities continue, then when the current correction is over, BTC would rally to the upper resistance channel line reaching the target of $100k - $110k.
The April 2013 correction was 4 grid lines in length and the correction lasted 12 weeks. The current correction has reached the same length (4 grid lines), but in 6 weeks. The market may simply just rally from the current low of 7625.25 (BitStamp), as it has already started to do. But more likely there will be either a testback after a few weeks of rally or sideways movement, or even one more push down to the inner blue support channel line, meaning a lower low which could reach the 6500 area. In any case, the rally towards the target area should either be on the way, or commence in six weeks or so after one more push down. Alt coins are rallying as well, so that's a good sign. In fact, Litecoin is already up over 70% from it's $100 low.
The rally into the 1163 high in Nov of 2013 which reached the upper channel resistance line was 9 grid lines in length and 21 weeks in time. Using those figures as a projection for the rally from our current correction low would take the market to the target shown in late July 2018.
And to be even clearer, I don't see it as a major degree correction, but at worst a wave 4] of 5] out of the wave III of the grand cycle. But even then, I don't think so yet, we are too low on the chart compared to the target. Also the rise to 20k was way too short for a major degree wave, and with way too many retracements to be a final impulse of a wave III
We are now at the point of the parabola (10k), so either we continue the bull run exponentially, or we call the local top for a wave 3] and finish a 4] consolidation. Considering the recent weakness, I'd say that local top might be in, and that we see some months of consolidation before the real major III move up