Very simple analysis looking at weekly & monthly mometum of BTC.
What we are seeing is NOT great:
1) Double bottom forming on STOCH RSI, last time this happened was feb/march 2018
2) Weekly AO going into bear territory - repeat of feb/march 2018
3) BTC stuck in a 5 month bearish channel
4) Price below 10 period MA, 5 period MA below 20 period MA
5) 5 period MA about to make bear cross with 50 period MA, price currently supported by 100 period MA
6) 200 period weekly MA at $5000
My observations:
1) I expect second STOCH RSI bottom to be formed by mid December, followed by relief rally back to the upper channel resistance which by then will be around $8500 mark
2) Over the next couple of weeks price could easily retest the mid 6000's or just consolidate around the 7000s level
3) Current PA is very similar to what we saw in march/april 2018....and we all know how the remainder of 2018 looked for BTC
The situation is even worse when looking at monthly momentum indicators. The fast moving STOCH RSI has passed the 50 mark signaling long term bear territory....if this indicator was to continue on it's trajectory and bottom out we might be looking at a bear market lasting into spring 2020. Bear in mind that the last time the monthly STOCH RSI reversed from the 50 level was OCTOBER 2016, right at the start of a massive BULL SEASON.
This is why December is so crucial....if we just get a little relief rally then that's not going to be enough to make a trend reversal. We need a BIG rally for that. We need to break the channel to the upside, take out the $9500 resistance and break the psychological level of $10K.
To sum up: December is make or break. We either reverse hard and go full BULL mode or fail and go into major BEAR territory.
REMEMBER TO ADYOR
What we are seeing is NOT great:
1) Double bottom forming on STOCH RSI, last time this happened was feb/march 2018
2) Weekly AO going into bear territory - repeat of feb/march 2018
3) BTC stuck in a 5 month bearish channel
4) Price below 10 period MA, 5 period MA below 20 period MA
5) 5 period MA about to make bear cross with 50 period MA, price currently supported by 100 period MA
6) 200 period weekly MA at $5000
My observations:
1) I expect second STOCH RSI bottom to be formed by mid December, followed by relief rally back to the upper channel resistance which by then will be around $8500 mark
2) Over the next couple of weeks price could easily retest the mid 6000's or just consolidate around the 7000s level
3) Current PA is very similar to what we saw in march/april 2018....and we all know how the remainder of 2018 looked for BTC
The situation is even worse when looking at monthly momentum indicators. The fast moving STOCH RSI has passed the 50 mark signaling long term bear territory....if this indicator was to continue on it's trajectory and bottom out we might be looking at a bear market lasting into spring 2020. Bear in mind that the last time the monthly STOCH RSI reversed from the 50 level was OCTOBER 2016, right at the start of a massive BULL SEASON.
This is why December is so crucial....if we just get a little relief rally then that's not going to be enough to make a trend reversal. We need a BIG rally for that. We need to break the channel to the upside, take out the $9500 resistance and break the psychological level of $10K.
To sum up: December is make or break. We either reverse hard and go full BULL mode or fail and go into major BEAR territory.
REMEMBER TO ADYOR