I was playing around trying to find a setup for BTC that fitted since i felt the last weeks its not possible to chart this beast atm. Now i found a setup which actually does make sense to me and gives a top around 10k of this wave up.
Normally wave patters have 3 waves up consisting of 5 legs, 3 up, 2 down. After that a correction of al the 3 waves follows. There are people who say though in modern day charting its also see that there are 4 or even 5 waves up before a correction of the whole cycle takes place. I already had many 7 leg patterns in my btc setup which was 1 step smaller then the big yellow waves you see here, i didnt chart them in here because the chart would get to cluttered. So what im saying is the up legs i counted 4 waves instead of 3. Now maybe this means the larger waves might also have 1 more wave to come, or maybe even 2 waves more up after the whole pattern from the start of 2017 gets a larger correction.
After the $7900 top i thought we would get a large correction on the 3 waves up since start of 2017. This didnt happen so i thought lets assume we have 1 or 2 more waves up to come and try to chart that.
The last big wave was from $3k to $7,9k. From that i calculated the target area as i normally do. This gets a target area from about $10275 to $11580 (yellow box). I also experimentally calculated it cutting of the 7,9k top and using the 7,5k top just before that and i would get a target area of about $9975 to $11240 (green box). why did i cut of the 7,9k top? just to see how much the target box would move. As all previous tops 3k, 5k, 8k where very close to a round $1000 amount, so it would fit in to get a top very close to $10k. Ofcourse we dont have to finish in the bottom of the target box and actually the top at 5k and 7,9k overshot my target area into the next fib extension area. I put that zone as a red box in the charts.
I know im saying now we will end up between about 10k and 13k which is a huge difference, but its the best i can do :) I personally think 12k or 13k we wont make in the wave but that just a feeling really. Also sentiment is we get to 10K and its very likely a lot of people will take some profit there. We will get over 10K anyways in the future so nothing to worry about. Also the next few lines make me think 10K fits better in the graph as a top of this wave.
You can see in the charts the previous pullbacks where about 40%, 40% and 30% on the last wave. a 30% pullback in about 3 days would bring is to around $7k and right on top of that blue line keeping the parabolic trend alive for a possible next wave 5 up! We could even only correct 20% which would be in line with a pullback to around the previous top around $7900. A pullback to a previous top is a good thing and makes a strong support for the next wave up.
Ofcourse its also possible the $7k area doesnt hold and we will correct the whole move up since beginning 2017 down. Time will tell.
here a closeup of the end part to see a bit better whats happening there
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Bitfinex:
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Normally wave patters have 3 waves up consisting of 5 legs, 3 up, 2 down. After that a correction of al the 3 waves follows. There are people who say though in modern day charting its also see that there are 4 or even 5 waves up before a correction of the whole cycle takes place. I already had many 7 leg patterns in my btc setup which was 1 step smaller then the big yellow waves you see here, i didnt chart them in here because the chart would get to cluttered. So what im saying is the up legs i counted 4 waves instead of 3. Now maybe this means the larger waves might also have 1 more wave to come, or maybe even 2 waves more up after the whole pattern from the start of 2017 gets a larger correction.
After the $7900 top i thought we would get a large correction on the 3 waves up since start of 2017. This didnt happen so i thought lets assume we have 1 or 2 more waves up to come and try to chart that.
The last big wave was from $3k to $7,9k. From that i calculated the target area as i normally do. This gets a target area from about $10275 to $11580 (yellow box). I also experimentally calculated it cutting of the 7,9k top and using the 7,5k top just before that and i would get a target area of about $9975 to $11240 (green box). why did i cut of the 7,9k top? just to see how much the target box would move. As all previous tops 3k, 5k, 8k where very close to a round $1000 amount, so it would fit in to get a top very close to $10k. Ofcourse we dont have to finish in the bottom of the target box and actually the top at 5k and 7,9k overshot my target area into the next fib extension area. I put that zone as a red box in the charts.
I know im saying now we will end up between about 10k and 13k which is a huge difference, but its the best i can do :) I personally think 12k or 13k we wont make in the wave but that just a feeling really. Also sentiment is we get to 10K and its very likely a lot of people will take some profit there. We will get over 10K anyways in the future so nothing to worry about. Also the next few lines make me think 10K fits better in the graph as a top of this wave.
You can see in the charts the previous pullbacks where about 40%, 40% and 30% on the last wave. a 30% pullback in about 3 days would bring is to around $7k and right on top of that blue line keeping the parabolic trend alive for a possible next wave 5 up! We could even only correct 20% which would be in line with a pullback to around the previous top around $7900. A pullback to a previous top is a good thing and makes a strong support for the next wave up.
Ofcourse its also possible the $7k area doesnt hold and we will correct the whole move up since beginning 2017 down. Time will tell.
here a closeup of the end part to see a bit better whats happening there
If you like my posts and want to support me please use my ref links below and give me a thumbs up:
Deribit:
A reletively new European (Netherlands) based exchange. Atm only $BTC futures and options. Soon $ETH as well. Still in Q4 $BTC and alt spot trading starting with erc20 tokens and more alts to follow. Super low fees, maker fees are even -% so you get payed! Super fast trading engine, no fucking lags!
www.deribit.com/reg-568.7620?q=home
Bitmex:
Gives 10% discount on fees for first 6 months!
www.bitmex.com/register/wnaLRE
Bitfinex:
gives 10% discount on fees for first month!
www.bitfinex.com/?refcode=Y7...
Cryptopia:
www.cryptopia.co.nz/Register?referrer=I...
Comment:
on course it seems!