Bitcoin looking bearish or is there something else going on?

My previous analysis i talked about the 6200/6100 needs to hold for the bulls and that anything below the 6600 is bear territory. 10 days have already passed and we are still inside this range. Volume is very low which also confirms the market is not ready yet to choose a side. Alts have possibly made a bottom formation a week ago, but so far still no follow through there as well. On the daily we can still see a big bear flag , so that's hanging above this market as well.

I think for the bulls, it would be best to make a small drop towards the 6300 and test support levels again to see if buyers are ready to jump in again. So they can turn it slowly up again the coming days (blue line). Since volume is very low at the moment i don't give it a big chance that a move up towards 6600/6700 will succeed (red line), a move like this (with low volume ) would fit the picture of that daily bear flag . That's why i don't think a move upwards from here would be the best scenario. Only way this could work out in favor of the bulls, if we see some real volume buying and go straight towards the 6800. That way, this whole formation might have been a very ugly inverse H&S with the neckline around 6600.

A month ago when we were in the same range i was bullish most of the time and said the 7300/7400 was the turning point from bearish to bullish for the mid-term. Knowing a healthy correction to 6800ish would certainly fit the picture, i did not expect the big and fast dump we saw 2 weeks ago. Anyway, the same reasons why i have been bullish in the 6K area's the past few months is still in play. A break of 6200/6100 would bring that in big danger. A break of 5800/5900 would wipe it completely off the table. So the coming week or 2 will probably be very important for the Crypto market. For the bearish scenario, a validation of this bear flag , would mean we should see a very big and fast volume dump straight to 5500 to begin with. If that doesn't happen, it could still just be a bear trap. Because don't forget, 2018 has been a year of bear and bull traps and stop hunting. In other words, it has been a year of chasing (retail) liquidity, getting the money in at certain levels (long or short) and of course pushing them out. Most probably still know what happened 2 months ago around the 8500. Very high volume because the market very bullish at that moment, what did we see a few days later, a big and fast controlled dump to the 6000 again.


Previous analysis:

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Assuming the movement from the past days was an H&S, the target should have been around 6250. The drop looks violent again but corrections usually are. But now it's important that the bulls start to push back a bit. The levels i mentioned above are important.

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Starting to get in dangerous territory now, there was a 100 point bounce up just above 6300 but now it has already made a new low. But, no real dumping yet so there is still support around these levels. The bulls need to get it back above 6300 for them to be able to breath again. At the moment, 6150ish should hold, should not see a 1h candle close below this level. Because if that happens the bulls will probably be in very big troubles.

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So far still no real decision and looks like it has formed a small triangle now. For now the level to break for the bulls is still around 6300 and for the bears it's around 6150.
If we do go up, there is still a very big chance it could form a lower high, in the form of a right shoulder of an H&S with the neckline around 6150/6200. So the bears are still in favor until they might be able to break the 6500 again.

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So far it's following the blue line, bulls made a big step by breaking the 6300ish now. But the danger is most certainly not over yet. Only a rally above 6450 would be better and above 6550/6600 would bring things in favor of the bulls again.

Objectively, we could see resistance around 6350/6400 now. Even if we drop from here, the bulls need to try to keep it above the 6300/6280 now. If it drops back to 6200 from here, than it's quite certain that ugly H&S i talked about will be triggered and can bring the prices even lower.

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Still not much has happened. Tested the 6300 again and went up again to test the 6380 high. But Bitfinex was the only exchange trying to push higher, all others were behind 15/25 points. Now we have dropped to today's lows around 6320 again. If the bulls don't step up, and the 6300/280 breaks, the chance increase of a test of the 6200 again. If that happens, that ugly H&S could get in play. The level for the bulls to break is the 6380. The bears need to break 6280.

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I can see the that the bears have take full control again, price on Bitmex is getting pushed down again so the bullish view is in danger now. Break of 6280 could bring price back towards 6200 again. If that level breaks, chances are we will drop below the 6000

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Wrong chart sorry

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Looked like it would make a dump there, but things have slowed down now. Let me tell you something about and H&S like this one. They are very unreliable, if the bulls can prevent it from even getting close to the neckline again, we usually see a big counter move to the other side. But that means it really has to stay above 6230/50ish.
Open interest keeps increasing on Bitmex, so whales are up to something here, but don't know yet which side.

The fact that we did not break the 6380 is a bearish sign, no doubt about that. If that level breaks, IMO things will probably change again in favor of the bulls for the coming day or 2. 6450 break would be another step. Obviously, the 6550/6600 is the level for the coming week.

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Sorry i really dont know what i am doing wrong here. Trying to update 6 trades in a row, probably just moving to fast :)

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Those M F did it again, i said in a previous update:

"Open interest keeps increasing on Bitmex, so whales are up to something here, but don't know yet which side"

Even if i would do my best, i could never have described this dump and pump scenario. Shorts on Finex increased allot during the drop (3k btc almost) and dropped with almost 2K btc again already.
At the moment we can see a bull flag in the making, but where they succeed like 70/80% in every market since history, in crypto they tend to fail more often. As long as the price stays above the 6380, there is a big chance the rally will continue. Below that level it becomes 50/50 IMO and a break of the second green support will probably mean, that it was not a bear shake out, but probably a bull shake out. They do these tricks more often, but always in a different way and it's not easy to spot. This time, i have to be honest, i don't know which one it is.

If we get above the 6550/6600, it's probably safe to say that it was a bear trap.

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The 7380ish held is support eventually and the flag has turned into a bigger flag on the hourly now. At the moment we can see the bulls are trying to move up but the volume is still very low, so unless that increases we have to assume they won't succeed. Low volume just simply means that there are not enough buyers in the market.

In this chart you can see several bull flags that have failed the past 2 months, just to show you how unreliable they have become. So far we can say this one has succeeded to hold the 6380 so far and the length and current movement looks like one that might succeed but the only and biggest problem is the volume. If the bulls really want to make something of this, we need to see a big volume rally above that 6600. Only then can we start to think yesterday was just a bear trap and the bigger picture (the big triangle) might get broken on the upside.

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New update: