Bitcoin long term direction is closing in, make up your mind B

My early followers know i have been a big bear on crypto throughout 2018, because of many fundamental reasons, TA was just a tool to determine the footsteps. The last 2 months i have not become bullish for the long term, still a very long way to go, but i am still slightly bullish for the mid-term. That is based on TA mostly. Fundamentally some things have changed lately as well, allot of news going around but still allot of bad things going on in this world. The same bad things that gave me the reason to be bearish about this market. I predicted in an educational post in the beginning of this year that this market would be drained slowly by smart money, while moving between 4K and 12K (rough estimate). I have answered 1000+ emails the past months from people wanting to join my groups. On average most have lost 70% to 90% of their money in 2018. People who have been holding for years and earned allot of money until 2018 The year when the professional money came in this market and started to play the Wall Street games in a market where inexperienced traders were getting punished for trading on hope and fear. Anyway, i think the pro's might be done already with taking the money from the retail traders, since there is not much to take anymore.

I always read my comment section and the first half year the bulls were the majority. Bears would pop up during the lows as usual, shorting the lows. But lately, IMO, i have seen a shift. Many bulls have become depressed and are/have given up because it's just no use. These dumps just never end, like the one from 8500 and the most recent one from 7400. Next to these depressed bulls, i just see allot of convinced bears, just much more than i saw in the first half year of 2018. This information is nothing solid, my comment section is just a small amount from all the crypto traders worldwide. Just wanted to share these thoughts, because the sentiment of the market has helped me predict allot of big moves this year. But no doubt, the market has become more difficult and much more random. So i am not betting my money on it as i used to do.

Now back to the TA, Bitcoin is still moving inside this triangle and as i posted a while back, i still don't know if the 2 blue ones are the correct lines to use or the bigger triangle (black line). I explained the difference in a previous analysis, so if you want to know what it means than look it up. During that drop from 7400 i said for me the 6200 is the level for me to stay mid-term bullish, with of course some extension towards 6100 or with a quick wick even a bit lower maybe. So far this support is still holding, even though the looking at it objectively, it's more bearish than bullish. But an asset is always more bearish at lows just as it's more bullish at the highs. Meaning, if the bulls are able to lift it above the 6800ish, the picture changes again. For now, as we can see on the left on the daily, there is still a big bear flag hanging above this market. Something we just can't ignore.

At the moment with the strange manipulative price movement of the past 2 days, it starting to look like a bearish wedge. So the bulls really need to break the 6600ish and make an attempt to break the 6800 to bring the playing field between bulls and bears back to 50/50. If this wedge does break, it could still find support on the way down, but usually the target will be around the 6200/6100. I think that will be very bad for the bulls if that level gets tested again. On the right we can see some support levels on the way down that could still create a higher low.

So if the bulls are able to break the 6800ish i think the chances are very big that the triangle will break as well. If the 7000ish and 7400ish breaks, i see a target of around 9000/9500 for Bitcoin. But at the moment we can not be too bullish, the bears are still in control, even though i see several exchanges trying to push higher now, it's mainly the Bitmex bears trying to push the price down. And we all know how powerful they can be!

In summary, there is a bearish wedge in the making that is in favor of the bears and can bring the price back down to the 6200/6100. When this happens, that support will probably break and we could see the price make a big drop, based on that bear flag. So the coming days will probably be very important, if the bulls are able to break this wedge to the upside, we could see the start of a shift in this market. The open short on Finex are decreasing and longs are increasing, still small numbers though. I will make an extra post about this ad share my thoughts about this as well.


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Previous analysis:

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At the moment it seems a big fight is going on. Big buys on Finex, some or 1 whale is trying to push the market up all by him/them selves. Of course the Bitmex bears are holding it back again. The wedge i mentioned is still in play, think the bears are defending it. Moments like these, where the volume becomes important because it's a fight and the one with the most conviction wins eventually. Based on the wedge, the bears should win, but it would not be the first time the Finex whales keep pushing it. As i am writing this i see the order book on Bitmex getting filled with sell orders, they just keep coming in like it's pocket change :). So if the bulls win this one, we can expect a good squeeze upwards, maybe even directly to the 6800. But so far the bears stil have the upper hand!

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A member showed me this, i read it and without a doubt it became clear. Just another rich person(s) that abused the unregulated part of this market. If this would have been done on the traditional markets, they would be able to trace back all of this and put these people in jail, because in those markets it's illegal! Welcome to crypto, where everything is possible. Just need to have money and you can play around with the retail traders.

My early followers know how many times i said, the the whole crypto/bitcoin idea is maybe the best idea ever, but it's human greed that will destroy it, as they always destroy something good. Doesn't matter what it is, socialism, capitalism and in this case crypto, we always manage to F things up.

Anyway, i have no doubt at all that what this author is writing here is correct. At least the bigger picture of what he is saying here.

medium.com/@JimiS/th...plified-8ad656af299a

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Extra bitcoin educational post

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Still looking very strong at the moment. Bulls are still pushing but i can see the Bitmex bears are, as usual, still trying to hold it down. The move we are seeing here is a bit similar to the one from a month ago. But the bulls need to hold their ground now. Best if they stay above the first green level and second the support around 6550. If they can manage to do that, we might see a good rally this weekend. But being realistic, usually not much going on during weekends, so big chance they will just keep it below the 6800 for now.

Unless the shorts start to close as well, but i don't think they will below the 6800. Probably happen when the 6800 breaks.

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The move i mentioned above, looks a bit similar. So far the bull flag is looking good and while i am writing this, it's getting pumped a bit. The bitmex bears are once again trying to hold it. They just don't give up. But buying pressure is getting in now, dont have a good view of the volume yet, but i remember from 2 months ago, it was very high. Bulls need to produce that again.

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I can see very high distribution/shorting on Bitmex. The moves are less controlled than at the 7300/7400, just before that huge dump, but it's again Bitmex that is holding it down. I mentioned the same back than, so we have to assume another fight is going on. Last time the bears won, let's see who will win it this time. Anything above 6670 is still clearly in favor for the bulls.

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Looks like the pattern of that weird flag/channel has been reached already. Now we can see a small triangle which could bring us a bit lower. We would need to see a move like the blue line, turning slowly up again from the 6600ish. Big chance we will keep seeing sideways movement until Monday. So far i am still bullish, still above the big bear flag. As long as we don't drop back in, i have no reason to assume we will make a big drop. Only when we break that support, the bears will be slightly in favor. Below the 6300 bears might take over completely again.

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Was about to make a slow drop to the low 6600, now we can see a little bit of buying volume coming in. Volume is quite low today, so i don't expect any significant move today. Usually don't on Saturday. So even if my bullish view of a good rally coming week will come true, i don't expect a big move before Monday. So even if we go up now above 6900, i think a correction down will still happen. At the moment a very strange dump of 200 points to 6500 on Bitfinex just happened. It has to be a mistake since other exchanges did not really move, dropping only 50 points. And now the market is again trying to push up again above 6700. Wierd action, best to leave it as it is i think.

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Still nothing happened, think we can make Saturday a standard day off, would be great :).
Anyway, Alts made another jump up today even though Bitcoin is going sideways, which is a good sign. Shows the market is willing to buy again. But as we all know, Bitcoin is the boss and the ones controlling Bitcoin can always turn things around again.

For now it seems like a channel has been formed again. For me it's still 50/50 at the moment of what the next step is. I still think it's better if we see a retest of 6600/6550 before moving up again. That will probably be a good level to jump in. But, if we make that drop, don't want to see a big dump on alts!! I am still confident that we will move higher coming week. Just don't want to see a drop below 6600/6550.

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Dropped out of that channel, chance for another wave down towards the 6600. That would be a textbook correction.

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Still not allot happening, looks like a small bear flag now which could bring us to the support of this big bull flag. That would be the ideal scenario. But as mentioned above, don't want to see big dumps in alts.

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