Descending bear triangle must complete by September - prob Aug
The bearish downtrend we have been having since the $19k high mid December 2017. Since then we have created two descending triangle formations.
1.) The first is the top blue dashed line with the purple dashed line which is the full segment of the bear market.
2.) The second is the Red solid line with the purple dashed line which engulfs a more stable descending triangle with multiple touch points on both the top and bottom end. You can see this triangle has 4 touches now with today's bounce. It also has multiple touches on the purple dashed line which extends as strong resistance/support back in November of 2017 before the insane December rally.
At some point the #2 triangle will have to break one way or another as it's coming to the end of the triangle point. This triangle is a Descending triangle which is printing lower highs and lower lows. The RSI, the MACD, and the sentiment all leads us to believe there could be a bullish rally coming up with an attempt to break, which I think may try to happen.
If you notice, every touch on that red line (top of the triangle) has had two points pushing close to it. The first touch had a rally prior to it that didnt quite make it. The next rally also had another rally leading up to it, fell, then hit it and fell again.
This most recent touch has hit it on the first attempt. If this same pattern follows, a second attempt will happen and with us being so close to the bottom of the descending triangle, I get the sense it's recharging as the daily RSI drops to pounce through. It certainly could be a break of the pattern and take us down.
Also to note, yesterday's daily candle closed above a critical support level and so far today's candle is holding above it as it's being tested. If we close without breaking it, could be another good sign.
We will see soon enough!
1.) The first is the top blue dashed line with the purple dashed line which is the full segment of the bear market.
2.) The second is the Red solid line with the purple dashed line which engulfs a more stable descending triangle with multiple touch points on both the top and bottom end. You can see this triangle has 4 touches now with today's bounce. It also has multiple touches on the purple dashed line which extends as strong resistance/support back in November of 2017 before the insane December rally.
At some point the #2 triangle will have to break one way or another as it's coming to the end of the triangle point. This triangle is a Descending triangle which is printing lower highs and lower lows. The RSI, the MACD, and the sentiment all leads us to believe there could be a bullish rally coming up with an attempt to break, which I think may try to happen.
If you notice, every touch on that red line (top of the triangle) has had two points pushing close to it. The first touch had a rally prior to it that didnt quite make it. The next rally also had another rally leading up to it, fell, then hit it and fell again.
This most recent touch has hit it on the first attempt. If this same pattern follows, a second attempt will happen and with us being so close to the bottom of the descending triangle, I get the sense it's recharging as the daily RSI drops to pounce through. It certainly could be a break of the pattern and take us down.
Also to note, yesterday's daily candle closed above a critical support level and so far today's candle is holding above it as it's being tested. If we close without breaking it, could be another good sign.
We will see soon enough!
Comment:
We are inching our way towards that resistance line. Crossing that red line and having a daily candle close above it is the first sign of a possible reversal.
Comment:
I updated the contact points where some of the trend lines meet to focus on the core of the candle rather then the wick. We are still below it after updating that.
Comment:
Looks like it jumped through the downtrend. The red line was the historical bear downtrend which we just savagely spiked through. Ideally we would like to see a closing daily candle above that so still have to wait 1-2 days to confirm.
It also found resistance right at the top of the blue dotted line trend channel. That is the top of the bullish channel Bitcoin was in through 2017 prior to the spike up that started in October. This is a stable trend channel that it seems to not want to disrespect.
If we close this candle above the downtrend red line tomorrow, that's a good sign for BTC
IF we drop, the yellow lines are pretty strong supports on the way down. The red downtrend line should also act as support now. Basically every line below where bitcoin is right now can act as a support if we need to correct down from this jump
It also found resistance right at the top of the blue dotted line trend channel. That is the top of the bullish channel Bitcoin was in through 2017 prior to the spike up that started in October. This is a stable trend channel that it seems to not want to disrespect.
If we close this candle above the downtrend red line tomorrow, that's a good sign for BTC
IF we drop, the yellow lines are pretty strong supports on the way down. The red downtrend line should also act as support now. Basically every line below where bitcoin is right now can act as a support if we need to correct down from this jump
Comment:
We just bounced off of the top of the initial trend channel we made from the start of the recovery which is a great sign. The first step in confirming the uptrend.
The one thing I'm a bit nervous about, is every recovery has had two tops with the second slightly higher then the first before dropping. That is still a possibility of following this pattern. Each of those times Alts had a rally with BTC. Since Alts have not run and only BTC is moving, this could be a strong sign from market makers that bitcoin is indeed going to move.
The one thing I'm a bit nervous about, is every recovery has had two tops with the second slightly higher then the first before dropping. That is still a possibility of following this pattern. Each of those times Alts had a rally with BTC. Since Alts have not run and only BTC is moving, this could be a strong sign from market makers that bitcoin is indeed going to move.
Comment:
If it stays range bound from the top of that shaded channel and the bottom of the TOP end of the 2017 bull channel, it could form an ascending triangle which is a bullish TA. I've highlighted it here in blue
This would put us at a breakout around August 3-6th
This would put us at a breakout around August 3-6th
Comment:
That blue ascending wedge I added looks to be the path.... even with this most recent quick drop that happened today, it bounced off of the bottom of that ascending wedge pattern with quite a bit of strength.
Comment:
It's been respecting that 2017 trend channel since May. That's 3 months in the same channel. There is also clearly consolidation happening at the bottom of the channel.
There is a slow rise of the RSI on the daily which makes a bull rally soon feel less likely. All the other similar RSI movements followed up that movement with drops. Especially with the low volume we have now, it'll be pretty easy to manipulate moves.
There is a slow rise of the RSI on the daily which makes a bull rally soon feel less likely. All the other similar RSI movements followed up that movement with drops. Especially with the low volume we have now, it'll be pretty easy to manipulate moves.