Hi guys. I usually short the market, however, people also want to know about the long scenario. would it bounce? i have wrote several times that it is NOT easy, it would take time. however, i would like to show you a long scenario,
and it should come, pretty much in the near future, i think at least in a week. weekly candle this week is bearish, so i think the bulls might try a run next week after a doji candle may appear at weekly close in the coming week(or earlier..) BTC price has breached 68 levels several times now, and it is trying to defend it with bullish hammers yesterday! i have sold majority of my portions of short at 7060, because, at ANY time short squeeze may come.
so below is a relief rally(not bull trend reversal) that we should have in cards.
as you see in the daily chart, bears are getting exhausted at first hand. they always need to take some rest(?) after 1000~1500 dollar downwards push. just like the last downtrend in may-june. daily RSI, which was over 70, has came down to 40! now, we have to watch for oversold condition 30, the price can slide down more, that would be a small risk zone to go long. but, this doesn't have a bull divergence, so this rally is really to make a bigger bull divergence overall. stoch rsi is bottomed out, wants to make a turnaround, cmf has came to 0, which will try to test
upper resistances at 0.1.
now we are in a bear market, but small time frames, indicators need to cool out, especially 4hr. 4hr is important indicator, and bears cannot gain confidence to go 5k or even below, if the market is too oversold. they need to keep pace all times, try to let people think this is a real trend reversal, this is the bottom.so even if a small rally start, bear divergence will be still in play.
next days you will see boring sideways. It needs to test 6800, or even below, and bulls want to see that too. because from 6880, we have only reached 7140. bitcoin always test bottom supports when high cannot be reached. so next will be 6800, 6780 and maybe even below. 6580 is stop, it will try again at 63 which will fail, then we would go low, low.
we have such heavy resistance now, and below no moving averages will support us except weekly 100ma which is around 5k. I think until early next week, or in few days, bitcoin will go sideways, and test below supports so plenty of time to buy cheaper coins. if we go up, sell target is 7280/7450/7700. stop is 6580, if we go below current level 5k may be really in the cards.
HOWEVER, going long may be a early call, and I do not go long so much now, I only short the market.going long, with so much conviction betrays me! so this is only a perspective in biased to bulls. i plan to short, when it has its corrective rally at upper levels. lower time frames, bollinger band is consistently banding down, it cannot break hard resistance, it cannot make a good rally above the bollinger band base line. from the looks of this, we are going below 6.7 and onto 6k. so the point is, we might keep doing like 6950->6850->6750->6950->7050->6680->6800 in the next days, and try to make a divergence. see if that appears clearly at small, and daily time frames. lots of time to accumulate at lower price! do not fomo and buy at 69.5 and upper levels or 7k. some traders day "bitcoin has found bottom in 6.8 3 times it should go any minute...." do not believe that! do not fomo in! it is not ready yet, and when its ready, confirming that this is the real real short term bottom, it will go! take time, at least for some days and observe the market!
and it should come, pretty much in the near future, i think at least in a week. weekly candle this week is bearish, so i think the bulls might try a run next week after a doji candle may appear at weekly close in the coming week(or earlier..) BTC price has breached 68 levels several times now, and it is trying to defend it with bullish hammers yesterday! i have sold majority of my portions of short at 7060, because, at ANY time short squeeze may come.
so below is a relief rally(not bull trend reversal) that we should have in cards.
as you see in the daily chart, bears are getting exhausted at first hand. they always need to take some rest(?) after 1000~1500 dollar downwards push. just like the last downtrend in may-june. daily RSI, which was over 70, has came down to 40! now, we have to watch for oversold condition 30, the price can slide down more, that would be a small risk zone to go long. but, this doesn't have a bull divergence, so this rally is really to make a bigger bull divergence overall. stoch rsi is bottomed out, wants to make a turnaround, cmf has came to 0, which will try to test
upper resistances at 0.1.
now we are in a bear market, but small time frames, indicators need to cool out, especially 4hr. 4hr is important indicator, and bears cannot gain confidence to go 5k or even below, if the market is too oversold. they need to keep pace all times, try to let people think this is a real trend reversal, this is the bottom.so even if a small rally start, bear divergence will be still in play.
next days you will see boring sideways. It needs to test 6800, or even below, and bulls want to see that too. because from 6880, we have only reached 7140. bitcoin always test bottom supports when high cannot be reached. so next will be 6800, 6780 and maybe even below. 6580 is stop, it will try again at 63 which will fail, then we would go low, low.
we have such heavy resistance now, and below no moving averages will support us except weekly 100ma which is around 5k. I think until early next week, or in few days, bitcoin will go sideways, and test below supports so plenty of time to buy cheaper coins. if we go up, sell target is 7280/7450/7700. stop is 6580, if we go below current level 5k may be really in the cards.
Comment:
now, i said relief rally would go for a week, but it can take off in some days. daily stoch rsi is so flat, that it needs to be widened a bit. today, or tomorrow may be the last days to buy at 68/67 level. so keep an eye on it! i would put rather small orders in 68 level, more heavy in 6750, and heavier at 6680, 90. stop will be tight 6580, but below 6650 you can sell. now it faces another major resistance clouds, so it might drop just like yesterday to the 68 levels or lower in next 12 hours.
Comment:
bitcoin having hard time breaking resistance. going long, is difficult as you guys can seen. 50 ma daily, now 6950 is support but if that breaks this thing will become more difficult. if btc reaches over 7400, i might think differently, but if not, this long scenario can just be a scenario.
Comment:
this small rally, of course to early to call, may be the last, only rally before further drop down, if things go wrong. the top will be 73/74, or even 7150, 60.. current moment not sure if we will reach that. buying at neckline is not recommended, and i think we need to be more conservative.
Comment:
If in coming hours btc fall to 69 zone sell your shorts and try to go long at 69/6950. Stop is 6810.Target 72.8/7300.i see small time frame inverse hs pattern which if btc fall it is following the pattern, and it should fall as the left shoulder far as 6880/6900.
Trade closed: target reached:
Shorts win always in downturns.scenario is a scenario