Everyone's trying to find the long term pattern behind Bull an Bear in BTC.
Using 3Day chart - I will try my best too. Not sure, not claiming anything, just having few observations and fun.
I divided the cycle into one more time windows. - the bottom.
Bull run in VIOLET is relatively obvious.
Contentious might be only the timing when it starts - for me it is with rising volume of trades, with rising confidence behind it's rise.
Bearmarket proper is not indicated and it is what's left after bottom is taken out. (price levels of support in bearmarkets are indicated though)
In between Bearmarket and Bullmarket I included one more window... THE FLOOR, THE BOTTOM .. or ACCUMULATION phase.
When people are in it, they do not know, whether the bear is still there or if bull market already started. From retrospective it looks obvious as a time of its own.
Somewhat after the capitulation and before the confidence of the very beginning of the bull market - it lasted 222 days. Volatility inside was allowing to make nice money to the brave ones (price difference between the lowest and highest price in this time window is +99%) .... what was developing though was RSI.
RSI started to rise after the capitulation candle and it never looked back, creating higher lows. It looks like the higher lows might have been one of the factors giving confidence to the traders on the end of the floor and beginning of the bull market.
YELLOW - there is "death cross" (of kind - we are on 3 days chart, so it is heterodox) ... and capitulation is soon after - 26 days later after in the previous cycle bottom was in (we are about the same timing now)
Simply from those perspectives I am watching, it looks as if we are now repeating the immediate days after the beginning of the accumulation phase.
If that would be the case ... for some half a year or longer - there would be no wild sustained growth and no sustained falling. It might present more opportunities than one to buy Bitcoin for cheap and sell it for better price in between those moments.
After while - when price-rise will be finally accompanied by rising volume of the trade - it would be already foolish to sell it, because Bulls are starting to knock on the doors :-)
Using 3Day chart - I will try my best too. Not sure, not claiming anything, just having few observations and fun.
I divided the cycle into one more time windows. - the bottom.
Bull run in VIOLET is relatively obvious.
Contentious might be only the timing when it starts - for me it is with rising volume of trades, with rising confidence behind it's rise.
Bearmarket proper is not indicated and it is what's left after bottom is taken out. (price levels of support in bearmarkets are indicated though)
In between Bearmarket and Bullmarket I included one more window... THE FLOOR, THE BOTTOM .. or ACCUMULATION phase.
When people are in it, they do not know, whether the bear is still there or if bull market already started. From retrospective it looks obvious as a time of its own.
Somewhat after the capitulation and before the confidence of the very beginning of the bull market - it lasted 222 days. Volatility inside was allowing to make nice money to the brave ones (price difference between the lowest and highest price in this time window is +99%) .... what was developing though was RSI.
RSI started to rise after the capitulation candle and it never looked back, creating higher lows. It looks like the higher lows might have been one of the factors giving confidence to the traders on the end of the floor and beginning of the bull market.
YELLOW - there is "death cross" (of kind - we are on 3 days chart, so it is heterodox) ... and capitulation is soon after - 26 days later after in the previous cycle bottom was in (we are about the same timing now)
Simply from those perspectives I am watching, it looks as if we are now repeating the immediate days after the beginning of the accumulation phase.
If that would be the case ... for some half a year or longer - there would be no wild sustained growth and no sustained falling. It might present more opportunities than one to buy Bitcoin for cheap and sell it for better price in between those moments.
After while - when price-rise will be finally accompanied by rising volume of the trade - it would be already foolish to sell it, because Bulls are starting to knock on the doors :-)