Well, the idea is simple and short. Like in 2012 or in 2015/16, after this first rally of the new bullmarket, we'll need to retest the daily MA200.
I've drawn a possible future daily MA200, taking the second 2012 rally, to which I see many similarities.
BTC will at least go to 10k first, it could of course also overshoot to 12k or the like. However, we need a stronger correction to get down again from overbought levels
on the weekly timeframe. I think a correction down to 5-6k will happen and is healthy.
Afterwards, stabilization and consolidation in the 6-7k range for a few months, until the daily MA200 comes up so that BTC touches it, going sideways.
Then, the next leg up will happen. That's my current view, if BTC sticks to the old rules. Which by the way, it might not, as we have seen with the "no capitulation spike" low at 3200 USD.
So again, this is a probability for which I see a high chance.
Many people don't get that trading is about probabilities. They are like: HAHAHA! You were wrong that time, you are a bad trader. Well, the best traders can't achieve more than a 60-70% success ratio.
30-40% will always be bad calls, best case. This stuff is about longterm strategy, readjusting fast, not clinging to beliefs, not being biased in any way. BTC does something unexpected, fine, readjust yourself, readjust your strategy, adapt to the new situation immediately.
Don't cling to a certain picture because you don't like it that you were wrong.
Only then can one have success in this market. That's my opinion, and that's at least what worked for me.
I've drawn a possible future daily MA200, taking the second 2012 rally, to which I see many similarities.
BTC will at least go to 10k first, it could of course also overshoot to 12k or the like. However, we need a stronger correction to get down again from overbought levels
on the weekly timeframe. I think a correction down to 5-6k will happen and is healthy.
Afterwards, stabilization and consolidation in the 6-7k range for a few months, until the daily MA200 comes up so that BTC touches it, going sideways.
Then, the next leg up will happen. That's my current view, if BTC sticks to the old rules. Which by the way, it might not, as we have seen with the "no capitulation spike" low at 3200 USD.
So again, this is a probability for which I see a high chance.
Many people don't get that trading is about probabilities. They are like: HAHAHA! You were wrong that time, you are a bad trader. Well, the best traders can't achieve more than a 60-70% success ratio.
30-40% will always be bad calls, best case. This stuff is about longterm strategy, readjusting fast, not clinging to beliefs, not being biased in any way. BTC does something unexpected, fine, readjust yourself, readjust your strategy, adapt to the new situation immediately.
Don't cling to a certain picture because you don't like it that you were wrong.
Only then can one have success in this market. That's my opinion, and that's at least what worked for me.