BTCUSD Wyckoff Analysis. Entering Phase C you later
Hey guys, little late night story time for the night owls..
BTCDAILY Wyckoff Analysis. The chart is not in Log scale. Based off Wyckoff accumulation schematic #2 (or #1 if considering the spring/test)
Phase A
Immediately Phase A is supposed to mark the end of the prior downtrend, in this case it has only technically marked the deceleration of it, depending on you analyze it. Some put this as a descending triangle, some as a falling wedge. It's bitcoin so I figure we have to allow for some leeway. As we know crypto is a community of HODLers and there so many people out there who just hold, have coins locked away on Hardware wallets, not to mention the ~4 million + coins that are lost. Without going too far down that rabbit hole about the fundamentals of BTC being a deflationary asset, and assuming we can call this Phase A, we can see the PS(Preliminary support) & SC (Selling Climax) with heavy volume and a wide spread at the time. We know the pros caught that dip. Followed by the AR (Automatic Rally) Then a ST(Secondary Test) with less volume&tigher spread.
"It is preferable to see the PS, SC, AR, and ST, because these provide not only a more distinct charting landscape, but also a clear indication that large operators have definitively initiated accumulation."
Phase B
"Building a cause" for the new uptrend
In phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more), and involves purchasing shares at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales.
Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C. Isn't that just what you wanted to hear? I know you're all crypto bulls at heart :D (Unfortunately I have more bearish analysis than bullish but this Wyckoff one is definitely on the Bull side imo)
Phase C
It is in phase C that the price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. Beware of the Bear Traps in Phase C.(May see a shakeout to low 5K area) A successful shakeout here will reveal a high-probability trading opportunity to the long side. Seeing a SOS (Sign of strength) right after the shakeout is the confirmation for the analysis. All this being said a shakeout is not necessary to move to phase D
Phase D
If correct, what should follow is demand dominating supply. Multiple SOSs, widening spreads and increasing volume and reactions (LPS) Low point of supports which follow the advances(short pullbacks, or bullflags for example) Great spots to add to positions
Phase E
The Train has left the station, moon entered back in the ssps (solar system positioning system) and then we can hopefully go back to hearing CNBC yelling bubble because we all know if they start saying buy then we better double check our analysis if we're long. Phase E can see new Trading ranges created for re-accumulation by the institutions/large operators and as more enter the market. These ranges can also be called stepping stones. on the way to higher targets.
BTCDAILY Wyckoff Analysis. The chart is not in Log scale. Based off Wyckoff accumulation schematic #2 (or #1 if considering the spring/test)
Phase A
Immediately Phase A is supposed to mark the end of the prior downtrend, in this case it has only technically marked the deceleration of it, depending on you analyze it. Some put this as a descending triangle, some as a falling wedge. It's bitcoin so I figure we have to allow for some leeway. As we know crypto is a community of HODLers and there so many people out there who just hold, have coins locked away on Hardware wallets, not to mention the ~4 million + coins that are lost. Without going too far down that rabbit hole about the fundamentals of BTC being a deflationary asset, and assuming we can call this Phase A, we can see the PS(Preliminary support) & SC (Selling Climax) with heavy volume and a wide spread at the time. We know the pros caught that dip. Followed by the AR (Automatic Rally) Then a ST(Secondary Test) with less volume&tigher spread.
"It is preferable to see the PS, SC, AR, and ST, because these provide not only a more distinct charting landscape, but also a clear indication that large operators have definitively initiated accumulation."
Phase B
"Building a cause" for the new uptrend
In phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more), and involves purchasing shares at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales.
Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C. Isn't that just what you wanted to hear? I know you're all crypto bulls at heart :D (Unfortunately I have more bearish analysis than bullish but this Wyckoff one is definitely on the Bull side imo)
Phase C
It is in phase C that the price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. Beware of the Bear Traps in Phase C.(May see a shakeout to low 5K area) A successful shakeout here will reveal a high-probability trading opportunity to the long side. Seeing a SOS (Sign of strength) right after the shakeout is the confirmation for the analysis. All this being said a shakeout is not necessary to move to phase D
Phase D
If correct, what should follow is demand dominating supply. Multiple SOSs, widening spreads and increasing volume and reactions (LPS) Low point of supports which follow the advances(short pullbacks, or bullflags for example) Great spots to add to positions
Phase E
The Train has left the station, moon entered back in the ssps (solar system positioning system) and then we can hopefully go back to hearing CNBC yelling bubble because we all know if they start saying buy then we better double check our analysis if we're long. Phase E can see new Trading ranges created for re-accumulation by the institutions/large operators and as more enter the market. These ranges can also be called stepping stones. on the way to higher targets.
Trade closed manually:
BTC Clearly needs more time. The break of 6K solidified a bear market. The bull is in no rush to return.