goldbug1
Long

Bitcoin - Can Bullish Momentum Sustain? OR is This a Trap

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
One thing new traders and investors seem to overlook is that markets tend to trend to the upside. Top momentum traders stay long the market. Trying to time tops and bottoms is only done by liars in the right direction, and the herd in the wrong. As Marc pointed out the herd is almost always selling at bottoms and buying at tops. This could not have been more evident with short interest over the past few weeks climbing to new all time highs, yet the market held the lower support level and did not continue down. The herd was simply selling into the bottom.

This was one of several signals that the market was positioned to reverse. As both Gillian and Marc pointed out with their BTC             trades on the other site there were additional signals that a reversal was likely at these lower levels. Looking around there were other coins that were also showing the same signals and we started adding. We never expected that the market would rally like it did, but we have been warning for weeks that it was likely and possible. We had to exercise patience, and wait for opportunity, and when the risk reward was right we took the opportunity. This is now three positive trades under our belt which has significantly reduced the two trades we still hold from the 13.5k-ish levels. Keep in mind we had two successful trades and one neutral trade prior to those since 19k and several going into the final rally. I point this out because its about BASE HITS not home runs! Many gains by short were recently wiped out and then some. We do not have to be right all the time, and what is more important then being right is money and trade management!

So can this momentum continue or is it simply a bull trap? Here are the levels we are looking at to determine this.

The market is consolidating after the bullish swing. The 7835 level is a minor support level but enough of a pullback that we could resume higher from here. We have overlapping levels between 7829 and 7844. But we do not want to pull the trigger yet. The 7165 to 7575 zone provides the best opportunity for a swing trade out of a higher probability reversal zone. Critical support comes at the 6872 level which a break down of this level would increase the probability that this is was a bull trap. The 8255 level is the 1.618 extension of wave 1 and where we find minor resistance. First Major resistance is found at the 8474 level or the 0.382 of the broader correction.

The best trade right now is "NO TRADE". Let the market decide and provide guidance not try and guess where we may go. The levels we are looking for an additional trade is the 7165 to 7575 zone. Keep in mind many traders are stubborn and their desire to be "right" will have them shorting here. This is exactly what we want! Another chance to buy lower or enter a swing trade off their arrogance. The market is always right, and when you accept this, exercise patience, and look for opportunities in lieu of forcing trades, you will greatly increase your gains. Take the emotions out of it.

We must also keep in mind that though the trend in the short and long term are now both bullish , in the mid term we are still bearish . I can not emphasize to new traders and investors enough that you MUST be patient. Like my baseball coach said, "BE PATIENT SON AND WAIT FOR YOUR PITCH". Here's your sign!
Comment: We mentioned 8474 was a major resistance level and after testing this level we are starting to pullback. Currently we are looking for a bullish reversal close to the 7316 major support level. As long as the 7200 level is held the bull movement and count is still relevant. As mentioned on SC we are neutral right now on Bitcoin and are looking for a setup that provides a higher probability of a profitable long swing trade.

Comment: Longer term perspective, we had a nice rounded bottom pattern which is different then the previous V shaped bottoms that were followed by whip saw movements. As the rounded bottom came at a critical support area where there were numerous overlapping support levels it carry's more weight. Marc often states that not all signals are the same, the levels where they happen are important.
Comment:
Hey @goldbug1 , hope you're doing well. Could you explain why you shifted the target area from 7165-7575 up a bit to 7316-7748 ?? Is this due to recalculating the EWs?

Cheers for the analysis and great new website btw!
+1 Reply
goldbug1 heisginger
@heisginger, Thank you!! The bullish swing extended higher so I adjusted for it. originally the high was at 8255 but then extended up to 8462 and that led to the adjustment.
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heisginger goldbug1
@goldbug1, awesome, thanks
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heisginger goldbug1
@goldbug1, Just trying to understand best practice with Fib retracements, and hopefully this serves as helpful to others also trying to get to grips with this important charting tool.

If I'm on the daily chart, using Bitfinex open/closing prices, the top (8357) and bottom (6620) are pretty evident. This gives the 0.618 Fib to be 7274.



If however I use the intra-day highs and lows for the fib levels, I have a slightly different result and also need to choose either the intra-day low of April 6th, or perhaps the intra-day low of April 1st (which was lower still). From your apr 16th update above, you've chosen the 12hr chart. Compared to the daily chart, this would be equivalent to mixing the lowest daily close (Apr 6th, 6500) and highest intra-day high (Apr 15th, 8459) to get your 0.618 feb at 7316.



If you could give a bit more explanation on your reasoning it would really help! I imagine the answer is that you need to pay attention to both timeframes, and to all these levels. Nevertheless, which is std practice, and which gives the higher probability level for a rebound is clearly important to understand. Many thanks!

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heisginger heisginger
@heisginger, typo sry: ".... lowest daily close (Apr 6th, 6610)
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Hey @goldbug1 ,

I just read an article which basically says a bullish momentum is expected after the "Tax Day", which is 4/17. What is your opinion on that? It means a lot to me.

Thanks and regards,
Baris
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The log downtrend doesn't important to you, why? Thanks
+1 Reply
goldbug1 emiliensv
@emiliensv, good question. Mid term BTC is bearish long and short its bullish. The broader trend carries more weight, and the longterm trend is up.
+1 Reply
I like how you're referring to Marc's posts, you're the only two I'm following here.
+10 Reply
@Iruwen, same here! At the beginning I was following several people I thought are having smart inputs, but after several months you are starting to realize how many of them are just bullshittin‘ around...so thumbs up for @goldbug1
+5 Reply
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