Kappy

Bitcoin bearish EW count to watch out for before jumping all in

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
The price rise since mid-September certainly looks bullish with an impulsive 5 wave structure. Volume rose and MACD , RSI & Stoch all trended upwards, even into overbought on a daily chart . I see potential for this to be a blow out from a large wave (B) expanding triangle considering it took a parabolic structure in a short amount of time. The big wicks on the daily candles are suggestive of a corrective turn. (If price continues to fall from this week's high, we could see a shooting star on the weekly candle.)

Re-evaluating the wave structure the January 14, 2015 low could mark just the first major down leg from the bubble burst nearly two years ago. The sideways correction from the 152             .40 low could be a corrective wave ((B)) with 3 wave zigzag (A), expanding triangle (B), and then an impulsive 5 wave (C).

It's difficult to remain patient when prices rise like this which creates lots of excitement and generates attention. I believe this is an important time to remain disciplined and plan your entries on pull backs. The best buying opportunity may still be coming...
Log view to show bigger picture perspective.
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does anyone even understand this lol
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Would be nice if you could also comment on the volume, as the volume of wave B should be lower than the volume of Wave A
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Kappy PRO Sipke82
Excellent point. Volume looks bullish, particularly in wave (C) of ((B)) above.

IMO I think lots financial institutions and tech companies beginning to test use cases of the blockchain could be driving recent volume and then speculative volume came in the last few days. Long-term (venture capital & now corporate capital investment in the technology) I see as bullish but I'm not convinced by wave structure that this is it yet.
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Kappy PRO Sipke82
@Spike82 @Unapologetic_Capitalist Found an answer to the volume concerns going back to the book.

EWP p. 83 "As a general observation, B waves of Intermediate degree and lower usually show a diminution of volume, while B waves of Primary degree and greater can display volume heavier than that which accompanied the preceding bull market, usually indicating wide public participation."

I do believe we are counting Primary degree or larger waves and, volume indicating wider public participation definitely fits.
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isn't the 3rd way the longest?
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I'm not 100% sure which wave you are referring to? There is an update/correction I want to post as soon as I can... It only changes the count and degree of the waves within wave ((A)). Changing it to a 3-3-5 (ABC) zigzag instead of the current 5 waves. Bigger picture remains ABC but in a 3-3-5 pattern.
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Great chart. It looks like a completion of ((B)) as well. Especially when sentiment now is all high and flying.
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After your feedback, my count mirrors your's. Thx Kappy

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Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO Unapologetic_Capitalist
Here's my current count on a shorter time frame (15min) with my running count legend on the right (in boxes bordered in light green). I'm probably off by a degree or two but you get the idea. Any feedback is much appreciated.

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Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO Unapologetic_Capitalist
btw, my 15-min chart is MUCH more speculative than my daily.
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Sipke82 Unapologetic_Capitalist
Isn't the fifth wave of A somewhat lengthy? And notice the volume picking up during your big B wave, while that typically does not happen in a B wave.
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Extended Wave A is a possibility. The volume increase during B is concerning but doesn't violate any rules, per se. Thx for input.
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Considering the volume, I think this count may be vialble as well.
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Depending on where wave 3 of (3) of A is, your count may indeed be viable. I wouldn't discount it at all.
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Kappy PRO Sipke82
I'm open to the possibility. I just can't see the count that fits to make this the start of wave III here.
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I've added my alternate count of internal waves in boxes here. Bigger picture remains the same. This should satisfy questions concerning third wave length too. Wave ((A)) is an ABC zigzag. Under this interpretation previous subwaves (3) of ((A)) and (5) of ((A)) are now waves "C" at different degrees, both longest in time, not price.

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