BTCUSD: If bullish...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We should see price break above the red box on chart, and eventually progress towards the 13900 zone within a couple weeks, as shown on chart. The bears are strong and have been shorting constantly at every resistance levels but they ran into very strong long term buying here, and with the state of sentiment with everyone, experts, traders, noobs, and haters all considering BTC's bull case dead, and lower prices to come, I'm inclined to be long here. The support zone that happened to hold makes me think we might have seen the lowest low we will ever see, from here onwards, and even if consolidating in a sideways bear market, we would not go lower again. Probably forming a consolidation pattern for longer until long term buyers accumulate enough for the next leg up. This might take a long time, which would be even better for the health of the long term bull market.

For inspiration I copied a few patterns from other markets, like $FB and $AMZN, which had similar corrections during 2015, until 2016, you can see the results below as a bonus.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment: These are two levels where my emotions are triggered, usually a key level for price. A bit higher, I don't feel nothing...Down here, I feel the following:

This might be a support zone, and from here we should climb higher ideally.
Comment: The 200 EMA buyers holding the market, I kinda want to see them all freak out for a solid bottom, but not sure they will.
It's good that we hold this long term support, from low volume on the way up.


8517 is resistance here, potentially. If banging against that zone and falling, maybe tomorrow's news will make the market fall a bit more before bottoming. I'd look into hedging ahead of the news, or going to cash, or, if patient and long term oriented hold, but be ready to add more after it's clear everyone capitulates.
Trade active: I think we finally bottomed:

Maximum capitulation today, ahead of the SEC hearing tomorrow.
Comment: After the last update, when price retraced again to 6800 we closed longs anticipating another drop...then after finding support at $6000 we confirmed the bottom once more, and as the the SEC and CTFC hearing passed, we knew bulls had a firm grip of the action, and we could expect higher prices to come. It's clear the bottom is in, and we have been adding gradually from our positions in gold in this zone. I might reduce the crypto holdings allocation once BTC hits resistance, depending on how it acts by then.
Comment: $BTCUSD is likely to break up into a new ATH within 13 to 17 days from here if the terminal triangle signal is valid at least We need to decisively break the resistances in light red above though.
Comment: $BTCUSD forecast... Looking to hedge at the top.

Uptrend confirmed, now we have a good dip to add, target on chart. We also can still hit a new ATH by the 23rd give or take. Let's wait and see.
Comment: $BTCUSD hit weekly resistance but buyers supported the market at the key level from yesterday's CTFC meeting If we hold up like this we might trend higher still, but we entered a dangerous area. Watching closely for sentiment and technical signals to hedge.

Major hurdle here, asian traders celebrate the new lunar year today, tomorrow we might see increase in activity from Asia, hopefully enough buying to make us clear this resistance - $BTCUSD chart
on question, do you use a log chart? txs
What confirmed the uptrend? Thanks
IvanLabrie golfballa
@golfballa, yesterday's jump out of the accumulation zone.
+2 Reply
good work mate
Another week of bear bashing begins
Just for interest as the final target seems to line up nicely with your projection:

@BRRD, Hopefully we get the trend right...there is no trend it would appear, so it is likely that the long term consolidation period started. I was debating wether the inflation adjusted chart had any merit, but it seems it doesn't. In that chart, the bull market would continue until May or June, but to me it's clear it ended in December as originally anticipated, 2 years ago. Quite fascinating, isn't it?

Should be a long period of re-accumulation for long term traders to buy on declines, and sell or hedge partially on rallies to increase the BTC stash over time. Might last until August 2019 roughly. Then we could launch into a massive long term uptrend once more.
+1 Reply
BRRD IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie yep, interesting.Thanks for that info.

Personally I'm still learning to adjust my view according to a progressively slower, growing market. What looks like sluggish movement today can be deceptive and hide a lot of power. It's taken a good few months but I think I've got it now... for the time being anyway!

As for the next few weeks / couple of months or so, I reckon you could be holding any crypto whatever and make money. There are millions of brand new accounts on all the exchanges and millions of newbies deciding right now that it's time to learn how to buy the dip. But then it takes time to prepare money especially when you are new and second-guessing yourself - "Am i really about to buy these magic beans?" "Is this a stupid idea?" etc.

Then you learn how to use your BTC to buy alts.

There is money extracted from exchanges at the end of last year to be resent to exchanges. Bitstamp said there are no deposits today... so that makes a 3-day bottleneck with the weekend, for money arriving Monday.

Pressure building for a big run up.
+1 Reply
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