Hey guys this is just a market update here for BTCUSD and the crypto market in general. It's FRIDAY and with the weekend coming, the time to make a move is now!
I wouldn't be surprised to be a bigger move today as we've been waiting all week (month... year...). Sometimes big moves do happen at the end of the week, that way over the weekend the volatility can calm down a bit. It just kind of works out.
The VOLATILITY has been insane this week. BTC has gone up and down and up and down, only to end up SIDEWAYS. LOL.
BTC is still holding support, BUT BARELY! If you look at the MACD on the bottom of the chart you can see the yellow signal line IS below "0" but not below the red bars. Usually in situations like this, once the MACD SIGNAL LINE falls below the red bars that's kind of the "point of no return" and since these are 4HR candles, It has good potential for a sharp drop. Judging by the price action on the chart and the MACD, I'd say if BTC falls below 29,350ish that'll PROBABLY do the trick. ESPECIALLY if the 4HR CANDLE CLOSES below that line. In this situation I would definitely be looking for a bounce at the 27K area. If you've been following my ideas and updates you know I've been waiting for BTC to drop to the 27K area for quite some time however BTC has been holding sideways, reducing the chances of the 27K Idea playing out. I'd currently say it's about a 50% chance, with the other 50% chance being that BTC is bottoming now and will make a move up to the 36K area soon.
Whether BTC drops to 27K-28K or not, I still believe its very likely that we will see a market wide relief rally soon and the target for that (AS OF NOW) is around the 36K area which is 20%+
I personally think there's about a 90% chance that BTC WILL make a move fairly soon (within days to a month) up to the 36K area. Even if the yellow support line breaks here on this chart and BTC moves to the 27K area I STILL think there's a 90% chance it bounces and moves up there... The question is when?
If you're NOT USING LEVERAGE, I think its probably a good time to buy in and look to sell when BTC reaches the 36K area. It MIGHT fall just shy of 36K so I wouldn't put your sell orders at exactly 36K. 35.5K-36K would be more appropriate.
If YOU ARE using leverage, The safest thing you could do IMO is HOPE that 27K bounce comes. If BTC drops to 27K-27.5K and its followed by very strong buying pressure, I THINK THAT would be an excellent time to buy in with leverage. Of course MAKE SURE to place your STOP LOSS orders and judge the risk reward ratio of your trade before making it. You can get liquidated VERY FAST in these markets especially if you've been using leverage this week because BTC has been up and down 5%-9% multiple times. That's easily enough to liquidate a 20x leveraged position and almost enough to liquidate a 10x position depending on where you bought in. Using leverage IS A WHOLE DIFFERENT GAME and if you want to learn more about it feel free to ask me.
I (as well as most decent market analysts) DONT THINK it's likely that BTC breaks below say 26,500-27,500 before a relief rally. That is just the general consensus. Of course we could all be wrong and get wrecked but that is the risk you take. In my experience Technical Analysis DOES WORK and it is based off of human psychology. If you are disciplined it can work very well. It doesn't really work any other way.
To sum everything up,
* I'd say there's a 90% chance that a relief rally up to the 36K area is coming SOON (within DAYS to a MONTH)
* The question is whether or not BTC will drop lower to the 27K area first? In either situation I PERSONALLY EXPECT THE RELIEF RALLY and I have buy orders between 27K-28K
* I think it's very UNLIKELY that BTC breaks much higher than 36K (if it does at all)
* I think it's very UNLIKELY that BTC breaks BELOW 27K before heading up to the 36K area first! (unless its a wick... 26,500 to be safe)
And LASTLY,
***** I DO NOT think this is the MACRO BOTTOM as in "BTC will never touch these low prices again". THIS IS LIKELY JUST A SHORT/MID TERM BOTTOM so you're going to want to sell/take profit otherwise later this year you will almost certainly be at a loss ***** AS OF NOW, I believe the MACRO BOTTOM will come during Q4 of this year or early 2023. AS OF NOW, my best guess is that the price of that MACRO BOTTOM will be around 20K (18K - 22K) When the time comes, we will have a better idea of price & timing so FOLLOW ME.
Also note that if you do buy when the macro bottom comes, It's likely that price action will be MOSTLY SIDEWAYS (with a few pumps and dips here and there). I think the whole year of 2023 will be a very slow steady climb as far as price increase. Maybe BTC starts the year at 35K and ends it at 55K. That might sound like nonsense to you but when you understand BTC halving cycles you'll understand that the next BULL RUN is not likely until spring of 2024.
So what I'm saying is if you buy the MACRO bottom and you want to hold it until BTC hits 100K then you're likely going to have to hold it a couple years. When BTC was 55K and I posted a "warning" analysis chart showing BTC dropping to 20K everyone thought that was nonsense too. When ETH was around 3,700 I posted a chart showing it dropping to 2,300 then bouncing back up to 3,700 and then going back down... People thought THAT was nonsense too, but IN FACT , IT WAS SPOT ON because I was using a highly accurate harmonic pattern. I'll leave a link to that chart below, as well as a couple others.
That's all I got for now, sorry for rambling on so much lol and for any spelling/grammar errors. You get the point. Stay tuned for updates . I Don't always post my updates specifically to TradingView though because they're usually just screenshots, or a few words here and there.
Feel free to LIKE, COMMENT, FOLLOW, and SHARE please.
I DO appreciate ALL OF IT. It takes me A LOT of time just to make these charts and analysis's, not to mention the time involved analyzing the market before making the charts. Although it is very time consuming, I do it because I enjoy it. See you next time.
I wouldn't be surprised to be a bigger move today as we've been waiting all week (month... year...). Sometimes big moves do happen at the end of the week, that way over the weekend the volatility can calm down a bit. It just kind of works out.
The VOLATILITY has been insane this week. BTC has gone up and down and up and down, only to end up SIDEWAYS. LOL.
BTC is still holding support, BUT BARELY! If you look at the MACD on the bottom of the chart you can see the yellow signal line IS below "0" but not below the red bars. Usually in situations like this, once the MACD SIGNAL LINE falls below the red bars that's kind of the "point of no return" and since these are 4HR candles, It has good potential for a sharp drop. Judging by the price action on the chart and the MACD, I'd say if BTC falls below 29,350ish that'll PROBABLY do the trick. ESPECIALLY if the 4HR CANDLE CLOSES below that line. In this situation I would definitely be looking for a bounce at the 27K area. If you've been following my ideas and updates you know I've been waiting for BTC to drop to the 27K area for quite some time however BTC has been holding sideways, reducing the chances of the 27K Idea playing out. I'd currently say it's about a 50% chance, with the other 50% chance being that BTC is bottoming now and will make a move up to the 36K area soon.
Whether BTC drops to 27K-28K or not, I still believe its very likely that we will see a market wide relief rally soon and the target for that (AS OF NOW) is around the 36K area which is 20%+
I personally think there's about a 90% chance that BTC WILL make a move fairly soon (within days to a month) up to the 36K area. Even if the yellow support line breaks here on this chart and BTC moves to the 27K area I STILL think there's a 90% chance it bounces and moves up there... The question is when?
If you're NOT USING LEVERAGE, I think its probably a good time to buy in and look to sell when BTC reaches the 36K area. It MIGHT fall just shy of 36K so I wouldn't put your sell orders at exactly 36K. 35.5K-36K would be more appropriate.
If YOU ARE using leverage, The safest thing you could do IMO is HOPE that 27K bounce comes. If BTC drops to 27K-27.5K and its followed by very strong buying pressure, I THINK THAT would be an excellent time to buy in with leverage. Of course MAKE SURE to place your STOP LOSS orders and judge the risk reward ratio of your trade before making it. You can get liquidated VERY FAST in these markets especially if you've been using leverage this week because BTC has been up and down 5%-9% multiple times. That's easily enough to liquidate a 20x leveraged position and almost enough to liquidate a 10x position depending on where you bought in. Using leverage IS A WHOLE DIFFERENT GAME and if you want to learn more about it feel free to ask me.
I (as well as most decent market analysts) DONT THINK it's likely that BTC breaks below say 26,500-27,500 before a relief rally. That is just the general consensus. Of course we could all be wrong and get wrecked but that is the risk you take. In my experience Technical Analysis DOES WORK and it is based off of human psychology. If you are disciplined it can work very well. It doesn't really work any other way.
To sum everything up,
* I'd say there's a 90% chance that a relief rally up to the 36K area is coming SOON (within DAYS to a MONTH)
* The question is whether or not BTC will drop lower to the 27K area first? In either situation I PERSONALLY EXPECT THE RELIEF RALLY and I have buy orders between 27K-28K
* I think it's very UNLIKELY that BTC breaks much higher than 36K (if it does at all)
* I think it's very UNLIKELY that BTC breaks BELOW 27K before heading up to the 36K area first! (unless its a wick... 26,500 to be safe)
And LASTLY,
***** I DO NOT think this is the MACRO BOTTOM as in "BTC will never touch these low prices again". THIS IS LIKELY JUST A SHORT/MID TERM BOTTOM so you're going to want to sell/take profit otherwise later this year you will almost certainly be at a loss ***** AS OF NOW, I believe the MACRO BOTTOM will come during Q4 of this year or early 2023. AS OF NOW, my best guess is that the price of that MACRO BOTTOM will be around 20K (18K - 22K) When the time comes, we will have a better idea of price & timing so FOLLOW ME.
Also note that if you do buy when the macro bottom comes, It's likely that price action will be MOSTLY SIDEWAYS (with a few pumps and dips here and there). I think the whole year of 2023 will be a very slow steady climb as far as price increase. Maybe BTC starts the year at 35K and ends it at 55K. That might sound like nonsense to you but when you understand BTC halving cycles you'll understand that the next BULL RUN is not likely until spring of 2024.
So what I'm saying is if you buy the MACRO bottom and you want to hold it until BTC hits 100K then you're likely going to have to hold it a couple years. When BTC was 55K and I posted a "warning" analysis chart showing BTC dropping to 20K everyone thought that was nonsense too. When ETH was around 3,700 I posted a chart showing it dropping to 2,300 then bouncing back up to 3,700 and then going back down... People thought THAT was nonsense too, but IN FACT , IT WAS SPOT ON because I was using a highly accurate harmonic pattern. I'll leave a link to that chart below, as well as a couple others.
That's all I got for now, sorry for rambling on so much lol and for any spelling/grammar errors. You get the point. Stay tuned for updates . I Don't always post my updates specifically to TradingView though because they're usually just screenshots, or a few words here and there.
Feel free to LIKE, COMMENT, FOLLOW, and SHARE please.
I DO appreciate ALL OF IT. It takes me A LOT of time just to make these charts and analysis's, not to mention the time involved analyzing the market before making the charts. Although it is very time consuming, I do it because I enjoy it. See you next time.
