BTC Bitcoin TA that will triggers an on-chain domino effect
this short bull run was based on the narrative of :
- whales buying (institutions)
- coins moving of the exchange (mostly it will be due to the Binance scary news flow from governments against Binance)
- miners accumulating
=supply shock
if all have bought and their bags are full, who will be the next one to buy and push the price higher?
Miners have high costs, eventually they need to sell.
Technical Analysis:
From the Low BTC is in a Diagonal of 5 waves that are over. Correction has started and broke the diagonal in linear chart as can be seen here and in logarithmic chart as can be seen here:
note the RSI that was in a descending diagonal, what made a divergency with the ascending price diagonal.
OK now is the CORRECTION, but how FAR?
Bull count:
mainwave 4 correction has ended in July 21 and now we are in mainwave 5 of the 5th cycle to 100000$
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/j/Jsgnrakx.png
How do we know? we don't know, only the next levels will show you what count it will be.
First big resistance is the 200SMA moving average at 45975$
if that breaks, the selling pressure will pick up fast.
till the next level: is 438549$ what was 2 times a strong floor in August and is also by magic the 1.618% extension of this (a) leg drop.
above here the correction should stop and go back up to the 5th wave to around 54-57k
Bear case:
if the double low and the 1.618% extension of (a) breaks, only the 20 week SMA and the 50 EMA at 43K with top july a bit lower by then could stop it as last resort.
Problem is once the 1.618% extension has broken, the 3 wave correction becomes a 5 wave correction = impulse wave but down.
if there is no substantial bounce before this levels and they only become the bounce of the 4th counter wave up, the 5th after that will break these last support levels and only 100 SMA around 38k could give some support for a large bounce back up.
ON CHAIN PROBLEMS:
everybody can see everybody trades up till the minute.
Miners will see that people are moving back to the exchanges to sell and hopefully they got a large enough cash balance to hold there selling out.
Problem is they made already large costs to move their ASICS from China to other parts of the world and made large costs.
I guess they also will want to sell their BTC to pay for the electricity costs.
A vicious circle, because everybody will see in the on-chain data that miners are selling and not HODLing anymore.
= more selling pressure
INSTITUTIONALS, won't invest at large in BTC BECAUSE, they can not get out anymore before anyone has seen their transactions.
They only can invest in shares of Microstrategy, or futures or Grayescale where their selling only has to be announced by the closing of the quarter.
And the bear market has started.
END OF THE BEAR MARKET:
the Taproot upgrade, I have to research more, but it could be that transactions will be hidden now from the ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS.
If that is the case, INSTITUTIONALS will all come to invest in Bitcoin and the new bull market has started up to 100.000 $ or much more.
An ETF on physical holding of BTC can solve this problem, but an ETF on futures won't make a difference, only more volatility.
BEAR arguments:
check the NVT ratio, it has not been that high as last days because there is no onchain activity to support this price.
And the lightning network is not that large that most activity is on that network.
this all could change with El Salvador.
- whales buying (institutions)
- coins moving of the exchange (mostly it will be due to the Binance scary news flow from governments against Binance)
- miners accumulating
=supply shock
if all have bought and their bags are full, who will be the next one to buy and push the price higher?
Miners have high costs, eventually they need to sell.
Technical Analysis:
From the Low BTC is in a Diagonal of 5 waves that are over. Correction has started and broke the diagonal in linear chart as can be seen here and in logarithmic chart as can be seen here:
OK now is the CORRECTION, but how FAR?
Bull count:
mainwave 4 correction has ended in July 21 and now we are in mainwave 5 of the 5th cycle to 100000$
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/j/Jsgnrakx.png
How do we know? we don't know, only the next levels will show you what count it will be.
First big resistance is the 200SMA moving average at 45975$
till the next level: is 438549$ what was 2 times a strong floor in August and is also by magic the 1.618% extension of this (a) leg drop.
Bear case:
if the double low and the 1.618% extension of (a) breaks, only the 20 week SMA and the 50 EMA at 43K with top july a bit lower by then could stop it as last resort.
Problem is once the 1.618% extension has broken, the 3 wave correction becomes a 5 wave correction = impulse wave but down.
if there is no substantial bounce before this levels and they only become the bounce of the 4th counter wave up, the 5th after that will break these last support levels and only 100 SMA around 38k could give some support for a large bounce back up.
ON CHAIN PROBLEMS:
everybody can see everybody trades up till the minute.
Miners will see that people are moving back to the exchanges to sell and hopefully they got a large enough cash balance to hold there selling out.
Problem is they made already large costs to move their ASICS from China to other parts of the world and made large costs.
I guess they also will want to sell their BTC to pay for the electricity costs.
A vicious circle, because everybody will see in the on-chain data that miners are selling and not HODLing anymore.
= more selling pressure
INSTITUTIONALS, won't invest at large in BTC BECAUSE, they can not get out anymore before anyone has seen their transactions.
They only can invest in shares of Microstrategy, or futures or Grayescale where their selling only has to be announced by the closing of the quarter.
And the bear market has started.
END OF THE BEAR MARKET:
the Taproot upgrade, I have to research more, but it could be that transactions will be hidden now from the ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS.
If that is the case, INSTITUTIONALS will all come to invest in Bitcoin and the new bull market has started up to 100.000 $ or much more.
An ETF on physical holding of BTC can solve this problem, but an ETF on futures won't make a difference, only more volatility.
BEAR arguments:
check the NVT ratio, it has not been that high as last days because there is no onchain activity to support this price.
And the lightning network is not that large that most activity is on that network.
this all could change with El Salvador.