Well, this is only a scenario. Im not sure of it, and i dont want to see it happening, I was kinda bullish before i saw the RSI in a weekly timeframe. ( All of this is a try to argue against my bullish view on BTC, I would love if some one argue with me, confronting his point of view against that idea )
So as you can see, the rsi was in a range, with a support around 50. We actually broke it, and it wouldn't be that bad, if we didn't confirmed the indicator. But we've had a perfect confirmation of that break, and that could mean we start a downtrend on a weekly timeframe. That could lead us to the same Mt.gox pattern. ( But in a faster way, as you can see, the diagonal on both downtrend dont have the same coefficient )
Of course, the market evovled, but not that much in my opinion, from last year, the top 3 is same, we still have somes hacks, same fomo, the market is kinda same in my opinion.
We have some bearish pattern forming right now. And in an elliott waves analysis, this pattern totally work. I have 3 scenario that i will keep in mind :
1st scénario : This is not the end of the wedge, and we haven't completed yet the 5 sub waves of the higher third wave.
The 3 sub wave end at $20k instead of $3000, and the fifth goes to the fib -61.8% level which is around 30k and then go out of the wedge.
Then we go for the last 5 higher wave after a big correction.
2nd scenario : This is the right compt, and we go out of the wedge soon and we have a dip around 4400-4300 $. And there we go for the last fifth wave.
3rd scenario : This is not the right wedge; and we can still go higher while creating another wedge or another figure
All of this is just an idea, and im open to every comment on it. Im really bullish, and i know that other market aren't that bullish too. So this could be invalided by a new wave of big investor coming into bitcoin.
I have the conviction that bitcoin will rise over 100k during the years coming, and i think if a downtrend we have, it would be temporary.
The question we have to ask ourself, is to always look at other timeframe, looking at indicators, if they're bullish or bearish, if we're strongly bullish, then take the risk of longing bitcoin.
But, if we start having bearish indicator, keep in mind this scenario is still possible.
Thanks for reading, and dont hesitate to share your vision of the market, and lets moon all together !! ;)
So as you can see, the rsi was in a range, with a support around 50. We actually broke it, and it wouldn't be that bad, if we didn't confirmed the indicator. But we've had a perfect confirmation of that break, and that could mean we start a downtrend on a weekly timeframe. That could lead us to the same Mt.gox pattern. ( But in a faster way, as you can see, the diagonal on both downtrend dont have the same coefficient )
Of course, the market evovled, but not that much in my opinion, from last year, the top 3 is same, we still have somes hacks, same fomo, the market is kinda same in my opinion.
We have some bearish pattern forming right now. And in an elliott waves analysis, this pattern totally work. I have 3 scenario that i will keep in mind :
1st scénario : This is not the end of the wedge, and we haven't completed yet the 5 sub waves of the higher third wave.
The 3 sub wave end at $20k instead of $3000, and the fifth goes to the fib -61.8% level which is around 30k and then go out of the wedge.
Then we go for the last 5 higher wave after a big correction.
2nd scenario : This is the right compt, and we go out of the wedge soon and we have a dip around 4400-4300 $. And there we go for the last fifth wave.
3rd scenario : This is not the right wedge; and we can still go higher while creating another wedge or another figure
All of this is just an idea, and im open to every comment on it. Im really bullish, and i know that other market aren't that bullish too. So this could be invalided by a new wave of big investor coming into bitcoin.
I have the conviction that bitcoin will rise over 100k during the years coming, and i think if a downtrend we have, it would be temporary.
The question we have to ask ourself, is to always look at other timeframe, looking at indicators, if they're bullish or bearish, if we're strongly bullish, then take the risk of longing bitcoin.
But, if we start having bearish indicator, keep in mind this scenario is still possible.
Thanks for reading, and dont hesitate to share your vision of the market, and lets moon all together !! ;)