hi guys. happy trading! see i do not have much time for writing long today, i will just show you a simple chart, that, in my own speculation can happen until 10th. 10th is a weekly close day, most likely bulls try to make it bullish, so we use that.
check this chart, I even wrote dates on it! isn't that so risky?? yes, that means its my daily plan that i prospect, which can vary fast at any market conditions. you have to invest on your own, this is just my thoughts and plans. it might not work like this, but, i think, short term too oversold, weekly candle close nearing, it is a bear flag, some chance it can play like this.
in the chart-blue arrow=more likely to happen, light blue arrow-less likely but always looking out potential possibility.
so today, i guess it would drop to support one more time, try upwards. buy level can be 6380~6420 zone, i think.however a chance that this movement will only go to 6550~6620 max on 8th, around daily close and retrace. after that the level is important it may just fall to 6480, but even 6320, who knows we need to see. but don't buy longs that easy, we are in downtrend, whales play us dropping hard whenever.
and then i think until 10th, before weekly close it would want to try 6700 zone. because the candle now, if it close above 6700, weekly basis, it will be a red candle but a smaller then the former green, which i think would give bulls confidence to push higher. but in this bearish engulfing candle party? more like a short position for me, that means it would close under 6700 more likely but, let's see.
so overall, this is a bear flag, so do not believe it will go to 7k, 7.3k again. not yet guys. remember, downtrend reversal is more likely and bounce is what? only to drop more! yes. so try to invest in this bear flag out nicely, mostly scalping, and lets see how we can perfectly play this out at the end of the triangle.
then good weekends! remember, this is my speculation, so just don't believe it, do your own!
simple trading plans for coming 24 hours may be.
1. open long
6380~6450(i am already in 6324, sold 40% at 6512 and holding..)
sell:6530, 6550, 6600+@
stoploss:6250
2. open short
6550~6680
sell:6488, or even below 6300ish
stoploss:6700
also, please check comments, i update it at almost every btc move that may be important(sometimes not.....). also feel free to ask me any questions too, i will reply!
check this chart, I even wrote dates on it! isn't that so risky?? yes, that means its my daily plan that i prospect, which can vary fast at any market conditions. you have to invest on your own, this is just my thoughts and plans. it might not work like this, but, i think, short term too oversold, weekly candle close nearing, it is a bear flag, some chance it can play like this.
in the chart-blue arrow=more likely to happen, light blue arrow-less likely but always looking out potential possibility.
so today, i guess it would drop to support one more time, try upwards. buy level can be 6380~6420 zone, i think.however a chance that this movement will only go to 6550~6620 max on 8th, around daily close and retrace. after that the level is important it may just fall to 6480, but even 6320, who knows we need to see. but don't buy longs that easy, we are in downtrend, whales play us dropping hard whenever.
and then i think until 10th, before weekly close it would want to try 6700 zone. because the candle now, if it close above 6700, weekly basis, it will be a red candle but a smaller then the former green, which i think would give bulls confidence to push higher. but in this bearish engulfing candle party? more like a short position for me, that means it would close under 6700 more likely but, let's see.
so overall, this is a bear flag, so do not believe it will go to 7k, 7.3k again. not yet guys. remember, downtrend reversal is more likely and bounce is what? only to drop more! yes. so try to invest in this bear flag out nicely, mostly scalping, and lets see how we can perfectly play this out at the end of the triangle.
then good weekends! remember, this is my speculation, so just don't believe it, do your own!
simple trading plans for coming 24 hours may be.
1. open long
6380~6450(i am already in 6324, sold 40% at 6512 and holding..)
sell:6530, 6550, 6600+@
stoploss:6250
2. open short
6550~6680
sell:6488, or even below 6300ish
stoploss:6700
also, please check comments, i update it at almost every btc move that may be important(sometimes not.....). also feel free to ask me any questions too, i will reply!
Comment:
guys i sold, 30% more at 6527, this bearish rising wedge, it can always break down, i don't want to risk holding so long. so i have 30% left for upper 65 or 66 level, if it would come.
Comment:
yes, bearish rising wedge, always need to be safe with your assets. if 64.6 hold, maybe another leg up to 65.5~65.6.
Comment:
very short term, this scalping play can work. i have already scalped from 6515 to 6460, observing for now. if it comes up, at the top of the wedge again open short, stoploss 6580, target 6370~80. if it just drops now open long at 6300~6380 levels.
Comment:
4hr closed outside the wedge, i'm in short position from 6470. wait for longs now.
Comment:
it does not look healthy at all, bears are in full control. chances are it might even revisit 62zone, because 63zone didn't work. we always have to think about these panic sells. two reasons. this is clearly a bear flag, with a giant long bearish pole, so not many buyers come in. second, we double bottomed 63 twice, but 65.5 resistance is heavy. that means there is chance to visit 6200zone. so keep in mind.
Trade active:
ok. it goes down! if you open longs, it takes a day to take profit. if you open shorts, it takes like 5~10 minutes for that, at least in downtrends. i sold 40% of my shorts now.
Comment:
ok, sold more shorts. time to get some longs now. watch 62 level guys~.
Comment:
Oh sorry for late update. Yes i opened at 6333,i sold 30% at 6440 now.
Comment:
so this bounce needs to overcome the red candle in more speed. 1hr 6460, 4hr 6492 needs to be conquered, or another drop can come. if you opened longs, you can take some profit like 30%, at 64.3~64.5 level, that is what i always do, secure effort and profit, and then be greedy after safe play.
Comment:
guuys, 1hr has bearish cloud all over it tomorrow. maybe selling your longs now, or some later in coming 5~6hours can be safe. weekly close is nearing, better be safe now.
Comment:
another possible scenario today? so watch out. maybe 6200 zone might come!
Comment:
alright~ yes we should see 63, 62 zone again. open longs 6250~6300, 6200, even 6180 we might get lucky. i opned short at 6437 now, stoploss is 6480, more likely if it closes above 6480 next hours, but...let's see. i plan to sell shorts at 63 level anywhere, open long today.
Comment:
if we close over 6470, 80 several times coming hours, more likely 63, 62 ill not come. so watch out, put your long orders in firsthand.
Comment:
so just a small possibility, not that it would happen, but if i am a bull i will try this formation to challenge weekly close. if it just goes up today, this gets invalidated!
Comment:
Guys btc is trying to climb up the clouds it might, if so it can try 6500~6550level once again.so be careful a bit it can come back down but also up not confirmed yet but has possibility.
Comment:
Guys did you get some longs?i got in 63t7 first hand have my orders at 62 and even 6156.so out buy orders at 63 62 and even until 6156. More orders at the dip.i feel a little tired today, would not scalp so mich.plan to sell this on monday.
Comment:
Oh got in at 6357 sorry for wrong typing.
Comment:
okay, we still have to see sunday close, it only needs to close over 6390. so many people are shorting at this level, NO, i do not think not yet. see 4hour chart, it is maintaining its short term bullishness, despite the price up downs. little rising wedge forming, top price may be 6600ish. we need to short this after tomorrows close, more better monday's close. to still put buy orders until 61 zone, it might not come. if that comes, and it does not go over 6280, we sell at that point. our purpose is to sell this at 4hr baseline for now, or even little more then that at 65~66 area. even if this price is the top, it will still come at tomorrow, or monday i think, so no need to fomo in an short at this price! 1hr has think ichimoku, its purpose tomorrow is to close over 64. let's see that happens.
Comment:
small time frame. i think bullls are trying to defend this area, if it dropped, it already dropped. so 1hr, rising wedge, bearish, but we are at low of the wedge i think.
Comment:
ok, 6100 buy zone came, all my longs got filled in. if this does not bounce to 6.25~6.28k, fast in next 4~8hours, it is better to sell right away, especially, if it closes around this price now, 6.15~.6.18k, it is better to sell it because this would risk a drop to 6k or below now. so keep in mind, it seems that weekly look like to show a bearish engulfing candle, which indicate that we coup risk drop to further 5k area in the coming weeks.
Comment:
so if it drops further, i think to 5.8~5.9 area, it should make a bounce back up to 6.3~6.4, and maybe drop further, because weekly candle will be so bearish, comparing the past drops, this could indicate further drop to low or middle 5k area. let's see.
Comment:
so now, we have 1hour and 45minutes left to daily close, if this does not bounce until then it is a MUST sell right away, because i think it will go to 5.9k area if there is no bounce. it also means that we sell longs, and go short with stoploss around 6240. that means inverse h&s shoulder pattern is invalidated(from the looks of it it is not likely), it is just a diamond formation that would keep dropping.
Comment:
OK, market looks very bearish at the moment, if you bought longs at 61 zone, you can sell some now some, if 62.4 or 62.8 is not reached sell it. secure your money. daily close coming by, maybe it can even dip more to 5.9 or 5.8 level.
Comment:
so sad weekend! i think, maybe 6200 was the top, got in short 6195, not heavy, stoploss is 6240. maybe chance of another leg down to 5.9, 6k area. i plan to long there, not btc, but ethereum. it is crazy now, however bull div is made on long time frames, it should give a bounce. maybe 170dollar, or 181~2 dollar may be good long entry, let's see if btc comes down.
Comment:
btc has 1hr, 4hr bull div,doesn't mean it will go up always, look out. of you still hold longs at this point, you can hold that just a little bit, maybe a little inverse h&s, big trend is down, so becareful trading at the moment. i still longs at 6150ish, sold some but still holding some. so let's see.
Comment:
I got in eth too long,185dollars lets see.i would just buy more if it dips to 5k.cannot short this when 4hr is so oversold like that
Comment:
Its going!!!!!hooray!!!
Comment:
You can take some profits at 6400 level for btc. For eth you can hold on for that target is 220~230dollar maybe more.
Comment:
4hr, looks like making a little inverse h&s, early to say. take some profits btc like 30~40%, weekly close still nearing still in danger. even this inverse h&s play out, it might not complete it and fall. so be cautious.
Comment:
If you are not in i think you can get longs at 63 area and 62 area. You can scalp that to 64 zone or even higher i guess.
Comment:
If you have got in at 63 atlrea for long you can sell now. It could slowly come down for retracement. Wick candle at 1hr little beat div on frames.
Comment:
ok, if you guys have seen the chart above mogith have got in at 62zone. dropped a little more then i expected i got in at 62 zone now. stoploss is 6180, if drops that more than that it invalidates this little inverse h&s pattern i would stoploss at that point. if this support holds, again, initial sell target is 64 zone, and and little more than that after.
Comment:
maybe 3scenarios, we get hit by resistance around 6280/6300 and drop. scenario 2 is going to 64 zone, scenario3 is going over to 66. right now it looks weak, but just put stoploss at 6188, for now. price look bearish, but it still closes above yesterday's 6100ish, which indicate little more upwards movement. BUT, weekly close now will be 6200ish, this definitely indicate more drop in the coming future. that means we would not be so greedy about these longs, sell them quickly at each resistance. so first tp is 6280/6300, second id 64, third is over 65/66. we have to start accumulating short positions from 64 zone if it comes again.