SimonMercier

BTCUSD : 2 mid-term scenario 18/10/02

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi guys,

Time for update.

Last projection was about a target zone between 6.8k and 7k. We kinda reached it with 6.833k. See here :
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Right now 1D MACD is neutral in regards to the spectrum. Extended histogram doesnt help to position ourselves toward bulls or bears. You recognize here a pattern that i highlight for a certain time (ABCDE) which on paper gives a bullish outcome.

Scenario B ) It happens that E is a bullish wick. Meaning that a dip occurs with a rapid buy back in the demand zone :



But in my opinion this is not how a ABCDE is formed. ABCDE doesnt have WXY between each letter. It normally goes ABC=A then ABC=B .. etc. Thats why i favor a lateral extension in the b scenario but 1D MACD is neutral which force me to have a bearish probable scenario in hand.
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I didnt putted the MA100 by inattention. Im convinced that if price can sustain above the MA100 the market will move towards new highs. We are fighting it right now as it offers good resistance when prices are rising as you can see. At this point, indicators under 4H are not reliable to have a short term prediction.

My TA tools that i recommend to be prepare on this move is 1D MACD and 1D MA100 (and of course trend line ). Since the correction as begun, each time we broke the MA100 the price felt, but this time, if price sustain over it we could have a bullish trend signal.

What is MA100 (taken from web) : 100-day Moving Average is a mid-term trend-following technical indicator. It uses last 100 days or 20 weeks data to analyze the movement of stock prices. When the price of a security is above its 100-day moving average it is considered bullish and when the price is below, it is considered bearish .
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Comment: You know how i like to add educational stuff in my post. So here we have a perfect example of the ABCDE pattern with Dowjones index :

Trade active: Bullish centerline crossover. Bulls lead :

Comment: Im setting a temporary target. the pattern seems to be in correlation with a bullish outcome. I will say that we broke a resistance but definitely if we break the resistance trend of B and D we can go toward this target :




Pattern : http://www.forexabode.com/images/forex-s...
always top simon . smart analysist
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Thanks Simon!
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SimonMercier hairycanary
@hairycanary, it a pleasure hairy !!
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