Oh-em-goodness friends. Oh-em-GOODNESS! Lets dissect the carnage, the chaos, the absolutely brutal volatility, that took place in the crypto markets today.
If you remember from my post on June 14th (attached below) I showed how BTC had broken out above my blue downtrend channel, and then held the top of it as support. I also showed that the price target of that move was where? Oh yeah, 13,812! EXACTLY where BTC topped out today. In another analysis that I posted on June 20th, I showed you that I believed the move to 13,812 would be explosive and that is exactly what happened! I'm not boasting, but good technical analysis never ceases to amaze me.
I'm sure many of you also remember that I also put out negative analyses. Particularly, one calling for BTC to potentially return to the 3,000 level by October, and one that (hypothetically) showed that we could be forming a huge head and shoulders pattern (seen in dashed arrows on the chart.)
So, where does that leave us? Well, my upside target has been hit, and it has proven to be NASTY resistance. So, I'm not saying that BTC can't surpass it, but we saw an undeniably negative reaction from my exact target. Now, we have to look for continuation. We need to watch BTC carefully, to see if it will continue to close lower on the daily chart, or if it will return to the upside.
With that said, this is the condition that I'm trading on. If BTC returns to the upside, and surpasses and closes above my 13,812 level, then I think we could see a retest of the all time high in a matter of days. HOWEVER, if BTC continues to close lower, particularly below the wick of today's candle, then I think we could see some dramatic acceleration to the downside. In fact, I think the selling could get very violent here, if we don't get up above that 13,812 level.
So, we reached my upside target, but there is NO GUARANTEE, that Bitcoin will continue to rise.
If you don't follow me on Twitter, you probably should. I post a ton of great information there, including content that you won't find here on TView. In fact, yesterday I told my twitter followers that if we breakout above the rising red trendline on this chart, that we would have an explosive move higher, and that is exactly what happened. More importantly, today's correction went exactly to the top of my rising red trendline, which I featured on Twitter yesterday.
On a side note, we are clearly in a parabolic move right now, and I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the nature of Bitcoin right now. Today was a perfect example of how this thing could reverse in an instant, and wipe out huge percentages even faster than they were gained. Greed is at an all time high right now, according to the Bitcoin greed index. People are ridiculously bullish, and that is a big warning sign to me. However, I will stay long until the uptrend is clearly broken.
One more thing on the possibility of BTC retesting 3,000 — I'm not holding my breath. It could definitely happen, but it looks pretty unlikely at this point. Bitcoin is like a freight train from hell right now. I wouldn't want to stand in its way.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
If you remember from my post on June 14th (attached below) I showed how BTC had broken out above my blue downtrend channel, and then held the top of it as support. I also showed that the price target of that move was where? Oh yeah, 13,812! EXACTLY where BTC topped out today. In another analysis that I posted on June 20th, I showed you that I believed the move to 13,812 would be explosive and that is exactly what happened! I'm not boasting, but good technical analysis never ceases to amaze me.
I'm sure many of you also remember that I also put out negative analyses. Particularly, one calling for BTC to potentially return to the 3,000 level by October, and one that (hypothetically) showed that we could be forming a huge head and shoulders pattern (seen in dashed arrows on the chart.)
So, where does that leave us? Well, my upside target has been hit, and it has proven to be NASTY resistance. So, I'm not saying that BTC can't surpass it, but we saw an undeniably negative reaction from my exact target. Now, we have to look for continuation. We need to watch BTC carefully, to see if it will continue to close lower on the daily chart, or if it will return to the upside.
With that said, this is the condition that I'm trading on. If BTC returns to the upside, and surpasses and closes above my 13,812 level, then I think we could see a retest of the all time high in a matter of days. HOWEVER, if BTC continues to close lower, particularly below the wick of today's candle, then I think we could see some dramatic acceleration to the downside. In fact, I think the selling could get very violent here, if we don't get up above that 13,812 level.
So, we reached my upside target, but there is NO GUARANTEE, that Bitcoin will continue to rise.
If you don't follow me on Twitter, you probably should. I post a ton of great information there, including content that you won't find here on TView. In fact, yesterday I told my twitter followers that if we breakout above the rising red trendline on this chart, that we would have an explosive move higher, and that is exactly what happened. More importantly, today's correction went exactly to the top of my rising red trendline, which I featured on Twitter yesterday.
On a side note, we are clearly in a parabolic move right now, and I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the nature of Bitcoin right now. Today was a perfect example of how this thing could reverse in an instant, and wipe out huge percentages even faster than they were gained. Greed is at an all time high right now, according to the Bitcoin greed index. People are ridiculously bullish, and that is a big warning sign to me. However, I will stay long until the uptrend is clearly broken.
One more thing on the possibility of BTC retesting 3,000 — I'm not holding my breath. It could definitely happen, but it looks pretty unlikely at this point. Bitcoin is like a freight train from hell right now. I wouldn't want to stand in its way.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
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