"halve" bull is a pseudo-proposition

These two days the market is good, some people say it is because there are many mainstream coins opened the "halve" bull . I have had many analyses on the "halve" bull before, and I can't agree with the prevailing view of the current market. Bitcoin, although it has seen two so-called "halve" bull markets in the past, does not mean that this is a law, nor does it assume that all digital currencies will have a “halve”bull .
If you analyze the vitality of a commodity, first look at where his needs come from. For example, we have seen a very hot recent TIKTOK, the reason for the high valuation, because his application scene is broad, there is enough growth. And when we look at crypto-digital currencies, let's not say that those tokens that don't have the supply online. Even if you go to split his scenario, you can see that 80% or even 90% of the financial transactions, commonly known as "fried currency", other token scenarios are much the same, even if some tokens in some countries become payment tools, but the use of the size of the French currency is insignificant.
In China, house prices have soared over the past 20 years, but you can analyse carefully that only a few cities are asking for a rise, and more cities are only asking for price increases caused by speculation, such as the so-called "ghost towns", where there is no market after capital exit, or prices have plummeted. So do you think their needs are real?
Looking back at our crypto-digital currencies, if their application is limited to the market transactions themselves, then when capital retreats, those demands disappear. So, if the factors that support the price are the price itself, this is a false proposition.
The bull market in 2017 was not caused by the halving of Bitcoin incentives, but more by the involvement of Chinese investors. In the 2015 stock market disaster, the stock market, the property market are deleveraging, a large number of funds lost the investment target, and this time, the bloodthirsty nature of capital fully reflected, those who first found the digital money market, began to advocate that this is the next generation of the Internet, is a paradise of capital, so that countless investors flocked to, It's just the bull market of 2017. But with China's governance of the market, including the calm after the carnival, it has made people realize that it is both heaven and hell. If you take out the madness of 2017, the demand in this market is still small, and the development of blockchain does not have the ability to support the market value of the cryptocurrency today.
What's more, more and more governments are now developing digital currency, fighting de-centralized digital currency, first of all, not to say who will die in the end, in terms of strength alone, now "centralization" can still be defeated "de-centralization". The 2018 battle between the BitMain and Craig Steven Wright is a prime example.
So I don't think that if the reward is halved, it will definitely push up the price, the market price is determined by the supply and demand relationship, and this "supply, demand", must not be built on "a subject", otherwise it is called "Ponzi scheme".
Of course, my denial of a "halve" bull market does not mean that I deny cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, as a commodity identified by the CFTC, and i do not have the ability to predict his future, but for now, the value of a commodity that can make thousands of people live on it has been proven. But do you need to push Bitcoin up to $200,000 or even $1 million?
I don't think there should be many people who think so, at least those who open the exchanges don't care, in 2019 the mainstream exchanges are basically open to contract trading, contract trading volume for the first time than the spot, why? It is clear that spot trading is one-way profit, and only if prices rise can make money, but when supply and demand in the market cannot support bitcoin's continued rise, a large number of traders have to leave. This is the last thing an exchange wants to see. Launching contract trading at this time, allowing investors to make a profit in both directions, is the best way to attract them.
But keep in mind that the characteristics of the crypto-digital money market are 7 x 24 hours trading, so it is the most widely used market for quantitative programs. The biggest feature of quantitative trading is profitability in a tight space. We look at the past three years, the U.S. market's quantitative fund returns are very poor, a large number of quantitative funds liquidation. Because in a unilateral bull market, the quantization process simply cannot beat the big market. Therefore, it is inferred that a unilateral bull market cannot occur when the quantitative process in the market is dominant.
To sum up, I think that halving the bull market is a false proposition, the bull market in the digital money market, must be based on the application of a large number of built-up.