Spongmana

BTCUSD Fourier Market Cycle Analysis and timing trend reversal

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
---- Conclusion ----
At the current point in time the market cycles that have been driving Bitcoin 1.00% for a large part of this year are almost universally high, indicating that there is a lot of pressure for bitcoin 1.00% to head downward in the short term. Market cycle c., which has been leading during the past few months has just recovered from a low however, and this could mean that Bitcoin 1.00% can get a week of relief before heading down. Around the beginning of November, and through the month, there is a cascade of low cycles similar to the formation that kick-started the 2017 end of year run, which is why I think early November is the most likely point for a end of year bullish momentum to start. The long term market cycle however, is still heading downward so based on purely market cycle theory the end of year's run will not be as powerful as the end of year 2017.

Monte Carlo simulations based on the extracted Fourier cycle data indicate that the most likely path for Bitcoin 1.00% is a week + some days of relief, before heading down to 6200 levels around the end of October from which a end-of-year run is launched. This is a tricky area however, as the market can react unpredictably around the sensitive 6k barrier. In short term the direction might continue upwards, but all signs point out that there is a good chance of downward movement the coming weeks, which is why I left my IS on Neutral.

The market cycles, and simulated price predictions are based upon the global patterns Bitcoin 1.00% has been showing the past five years, and they can be changed or ignored by large unexpected movements or events.

---- Analysis ----

In the chart I plotted only several of the extracted wave, which I think are the most interesting to explain market behaviour. Thoughts are noted in red on the chart as well. Included in the chart are 4 primary extracted cycles and a long term cycle. Notes on the individual cycles:

a. Larger bullish cycle from the end of year's run, it's bottom was badly timed in the middle of the initial bounce from 6k, right at the first bounce within this bounce. It shows to coincide with the 8k bounce in the end of July and it was a lead motivator for the bounce up around the 10th of April. Currently topped, indicating a strong downforce on BTC 1.00% .
b. Supporting cycle from the secondary bounces within the larger structures, It shows good coherence with the early parts of 2018 but later in the year its influence seems to weaken.
c. Extracted cycle which coincides with some features early in the year, but mostly shows to be leading post July. This cycle just had a down on the latest minor pump and would see us in a light uptrend for a week more, and we will have to see if it gets its way.
d. The bull run cycle based on the 2017 eoy run, which was also bottomed on the bounce to 8k. It did not have a significant effect near the top after the cycle break, but it might be of importance when it bottoms. It also highlights the likely shape of the bull run based on the earlier data, it starts later but might continue on later as well, if no external events influence the market until then.

Mean results from 10.000 simulations roughly sketched with the arrows, this tool is still a work in progress, and I am including this out of interest and to come back to it later.

----- Supporting information -----

---- Why so many cycles? Can't it be simpler? -----
Yes it can, but every cycle contributes to the pattern in its own way and a lot of information is left out if these are removed. In the end the most interesting part is how all of these cycles work together to create big movements, in coherence or apart from the big cycles.

---- Fourier market cycles?? ----

I use an external program to analyse Bitcoin 1.00% market data using a Fourier transform to find the underlying market cycles. These cycles are not fitted by hand, but identified from raw market data through the fourier transform. The resulting cycles might not always make sense from the get-go, but they do reveal underlying patterns that are in the data. I also use the underlying market cycles to propagate short and long term market monte-carlo simulations, and the short term results are included in the chart. These are manners of pattern propagation, and show the most likely direction for the price if the current pattern is continued. Black swan events however, such as sudden big movements can easily disrupt the accuracy of these models. Thus they are included to represent the possible effects of the cycles on the price, not as investment advice.

Since I can't seem to directly import screens from my tools to TV, I have done my best to recreate them using the tools at my disposal. I only bothered to recreate them to a point where the cycles are accurate enough to support the underlying points, but they are not pixel perfect to the extracted data.

--- Market cycles??? ---
Markets, like many other things, show periodic/ cyclic behaviour in their price action. Fractals are another example of this. Market cycles are cyclic patterns which indicate where the market is most likely to reverse, in a low the reversal is upwards, high in the cycle downwards. Market cycles are not mandatory, and occasionally they can be ignored by the market. Often however they are a decent indicator of where the market is likely to take a turn, and in which direction.

Generally, when multiple cycles like this are used big price movements tend to happen near coinciding tops or bottoms, where the multiple cycles support each other in generating motion. At least that is the most likely,
Comment: So far BTC has been acting exactly as predicted, a slow and steady rise until a sharp decline at the 10th of October. Now the real test comes, 6k is a mayor psychological resistance and we will have to see if the downward momentum of the cycles is enough to break through. As it is now, we are nearing a second cycle top in 3 days, which suggests that short term we will see more downward motion.
You pretty much get the same thing from the 1 month chart and MACD, however we are not quite there yet.
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