Hi guys! hope you guys are ok in such manipulated market, where, classical supports, classic pullbacks, runs do not function, only some power games between exchanges and whales go on how they want the market to be.
i personally have been shocked, seeing what happened yesterday. a boom shot to 6.8k, a massive killer downturn to 6.2k! it collapsed down from it's wedge, bounced back in. but usually when btc breaks the wedge and comes back in consistently, it tells one thing.
massive drop is coming! it has happened many times before, making higher lows going up making a nice wedge, breaks down coming back in, but at some point die. this has happened 2 times now, we are almost at the end of the road.
this kind of pullbacks, or moonshots, usually do not happen in one day, it takes at least some days. BTC is a violent investing tool, but it has respected(?) its support when it moves up and down. but since April, and May, when our downtrend became so massive, we started to see whale manipulation, mostly by exchanges, using low volume to destruct market structure. i really feel sad, it wasn't like this.
now we are seeing how 6k zone is being treated guys. remember back in FEB? yes, we dropped to 6k, but we had a 'v shape' recovery quickly. what about the second time at 6k in April? '6666' was a number that bounce came every moment from 6.8k. ever since then, we had such hope of 'double bottom', because it made a higher high than 6000 dollars, which is good signal. what about in May and June? we dropped straight to 6087 or something, destroyed the possibility of a 'triple bottom'(3rd bottom should have been higher than former), and went to 5.7k and bounced.
now, that 5.7k was used for 8.5k spike. what about now? with 5.8k we only bounced to 6.8k, if even more, we will only go to like
7.1~3k at most, which, now not likely. whales consistently try to break the support, with heavy revisits, and at somepoint, it will break.
really sad at this point, i play short games most of the times, i don't like it! but being a bear is almost only way to win profits. i want this to moon shot, where i can gain more! but, this massive downtrend, especially when bitmex is in play, is still alive. , soon we might have to kiss goodbye to 6k for a while.
yesterday's 6.8k, touching 50ema daily, so bullish, suddenly turned into a 'shooting star' candle, which indicates that we would drop more, that 6.8k will be hard to reached. these whales...they saw that daily MACD was about to make a golden cross, RSI try to break resistance, and bulls try to keep 21ema as support, but demolished that just in few minutes saying "not in my backyard, bulls!"
how i see this? i think btc will try to retest upper levels, 65~66, maybe 67. it can even test more, 6.8 and more, who knows, but one thing is clear. bears will destroy this at some point and crush the price down back to low 6k again.
once 6k zone is crushed, if we touch 5.8 again, it will most likely just give a little bounce and resume downtrend. you see, if we go to 5k or below. we will see at least 7~10month of more bear markets. if we go under 100ema weekly, now 5k, it will just resemble what happened in 2014, just die there. i don't want this to happen, just too sad.
trading plans are simple. going long, of course it can happen ,spurt up, but, i cannot bet on this, not much signals for this. i would just open shorts. now is time i think, to open shorts for few days and wait, firmly hold not sell. only keep liquidation price high, keep accumulating.
1. open shorts
entry 1:64 zone(small portion)
entry 2:65.5~66(double up)
entry 3:67~68(double the size of 65 zone)
entry4;7.0~7.1k(you know what i want to say keke)
leverage 5~7:keep liquidation above 7.4k all times
stoploss:7.8k
target1:5.7~5.8k
target2:5.2~5.5k
2.open longs
hard to recommend.
i personally have been shocked, seeing what happened yesterday. a boom shot to 6.8k, a massive killer downturn to 6.2k! it collapsed down from it's wedge, bounced back in. but usually when btc breaks the wedge and comes back in consistently, it tells one thing.
massive drop is coming! it has happened many times before, making higher lows going up making a nice wedge, breaks down coming back in, but at some point die. this has happened 2 times now, we are almost at the end of the road.
this kind of pullbacks, or moonshots, usually do not happen in one day, it takes at least some days. BTC is a violent investing tool, but it has respected(?) its support when it moves up and down. but since April, and May, when our downtrend became so massive, we started to see whale manipulation, mostly by exchanges, using low volume to destruct market structure. i really feel sad, it wasn't like this.
now we are seeing how 6k zone is being treated guys. remember back in FEB? yes, we dropped to 6k, but we had a 'v shape' recovery quickly. what about the second time at 6k in April? '6666' was a number that bounce came every moment from 6.8k. ever since then, we had such hope of 'double bottom', because it made a higher high than 6000 dollars, which is good signal. what about in May and June? we dropped straight to 6087 or something, destroyed the possibility of a 'triple bottom'(3rd bottom should have been higher than former), and went to 5.7k and bounced.
now, that 5.7k was used for 8.5k spike. what about now? with 5.8k we only bounced to 6.8k, if even more, we will only go to like
7.1~3k at most, which, now not likely. whales consistently try to break the support, with heavy revisits, and at somepoint, it will break.
really sad at this point, i play short games most of the times, i don't like it! but being a bear is almost only way to win profits. i want this to moon shot, where i can gain more! but, this massive downtrend, especially when bitmex is in play, is still alive. , soon we might have to kiss goodbye to 6k for a while.
yesterday's 6.8k, touching 50ema daily, so bullish, suddenly turned into a 'shooting star' candle, which indicates that we would drop more, that 6.8k will be hard to reached. these whales...they saw that daily MACD was about to make a golden cross, RSI try to break resistance, and bulls try to keep 21ema as support, but demolished that just in few minutes saying "not in my backyard, bulls!"
how i see this? i think btc will try to retest upper levels, 65~66, maybe 67. it can even test more, 6.8 and more, who knows, but one thing is clear. bears will destroy this at some point and crush the price down back to low 6k again.
once 6k zone is crushed, if we touch 5.8 again, it will most likely just give a little bounce and resume downtrend. you see, if we go to 5k or below. we will see at least 7~10month of more bear markets. if we go under 100ema weekly, now 5k, it will just resemble what happened in 2014, just die there. i don't want this to happen, just too sad.
trading plans are simple. going long, of course it can happen ,spurt up, but, i cannot bet on this, not much signals for this. i would just open shorts. now is time i think, to open shorts for few days and wait, firmly hold not sell. only keep liquidation price high, keep accumulating.
1. open shorts
entry 1:64 zone(small portion)
entry 2:65.5~66(double up)
entry 3:67~68(double the size of 65 zone)
entry4;7.0~7.1k(you know what i want to say keke)
leverage 5~7:keep liquidation above 7.4k all times
stoploss:7.8k
target1:5.7~5.8k
target2:5.2~5.5k
2.open longs
hard to recommend.
Comment:
guys trader vickydaswani has shared that daily 50/100 MA might golden cross.thanks to him! yes bulls usually take this chance to test the upper levels, try to make perfect cross. although, in the past we have seen that this get rejected, i also think it will for now, but anyway might be a chance for upper levels
Comment:
oh, so boring. so guys, people look now condition at so many ways, so difficult to believe what would happen. so people who believed in inverse h&s, i believe it is invalid from yesterday's drop. now we have a small head and shoulder pattern, which is bearish, but nothing for sure how btc will play out. big picture, this top, bottom wedge is a rising wedge, as i showed you guys, however also bearish with top at 7100ish. so, nobody can really see where we go, but most likely drop should be in play at some point after boring sideways or short term rally. even we do have like a bull run to 10k, yes, bottom should be revisited. they need to re brand the indicators, ugly chartings. now? no, so not sustainable.
Comment:
guys, just a thought. weekly rsi was brought up in the comments, so i looked at it. i think rsi weekly looks like what it did in 2014, making lower highs, higher lows, trending down in a channel. so if we follow the pattern, 5k is in the cards, and lower high in the 7k area will top that resume downtrends. this is just a scenario, i don't want this to happen, if we dip lower than weekly rsi 40, it might go visit 30 or 28, which in btc, 3k, or 4k will happen like other TA's say. so bearish and sad....not fun. purpose of trading is to earn money, not to analyze and be true about it.
Comment:
Btc looks much more strong. Shorts are way too high. At this 64 support zone,we saw massive upward correction yesterday.if we break 65 resistance 67 and 68 can be possible.i bought some longs at 64 today,stop is 63.8, If you go long at this position i think your targets are 65.8/66.4 primarily.
Comment:
Ok.i sold my longs at 65 zone. Daily and time frames show some bearish divergence,btc might want to make retracement, after one more try to 6550.
Comment:
If Retracement might come to 638.~64.2,try to buy long positions.it might dip much lower like to 6330,i think you can add little more there. i think btc wants to try 6680~6700zone in coming period.
Comment:
Open long
63.8~64.2/6330/6270
Ladder up more towards low points if it comes.Stoploss is 6200.this might take a while early today but maybe early next week
63.8~64.2/6330/6270
Ladder up more towards low points if it comes.Stoploss is 6200.this might take a while early today but maybe early next week