Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Key levels have been totally respected at various moments and have acted as either support and resistance in different rallies.
Current bottom just so happens to be the .618 fib level. Not the cleanest but clean enough where it dipped to the level and traded sideways for over a month before this current rally back up to the 10k region.
Note: We are currently sitting right at the .382 fib level. Pretty much waiting to see if we break above or below.
Bullish Outlook:
We have broken the down-trend channel and currently sit at the .382 fib level while approaching a possible golden cross. This is an awesome sign from a bullish perspective.
RSI is trending upwards. Now just looking for a new high following a healthy retracement.
NVT beginning to signal a possible market-top upcoming. This means we need to see some huge price moves to the upside real soon to be convinced, else it could mean a huge dump in the future..lol
Reasons to be cautious here?
We are at a major resistance level as highlighted above.
Bitcoin has so many times had the 500MA approach the 200MA just to get rejected and continue its downside/sideways action.
RSI is trending upwards sure, but we’re in overbought territory for quite some time now and haven’t quite yet made a new high in RSI or a healthy retracement for that matter. I would be very attentive to the price level when that retracement does occur.
What am I looking for?
Bitcoin’s retracement is what’s most important to me at this very moment. In the near future it will become much clearer whether we make a new high in our RSI and have our price level break the current resistance and continue on up. I’d like to see RSI indicators cool off as we hold current price levels or break them. I’m going to have to see some fireworks with regards to price movement to be totally convinced about a trend reversal.
Mind the Gap:
Now the gap boys would love to see the $8500 price gap get filled. Now this doesn’t need to happen but it has 95% of the time, so that’s a good enough reason for me to take a look at it.
The $8500 gap price level just so happens to be at the .5 fib level.
With that being said I am pretty convinced that we are going to have a golden cross because of how sharp this rally upwards is. On the flip side, it’s going to take a massive dump down to reject that idea.
Conclusion: I can easily see us getting rejected here at this resistance, having a healthy retracement to fill the $8500 gap at the .5 fib level and still be at/above the 50MA. This is still bullish. This will also still complete the golden cross and BTC can continue and bounce up to break the resistance level and make new highs. I’ve circled a similar scenario in April of 2019 where we had a dump at the golden cross but remained above it, continuing a massive bull cycle that went on to about $14k.
Or..
We can hold current price levels or break above it as we have our technical indicators cool off. This will totally change my strategy and I will update this idea as it plays out.
Let me know what you think. This isn’t trading advice. Just my ideas and opinions on the current market.
Safe trading. Cheers!
Key levels have been totally respected at various moments and have acted as either support and resistance in different rallies.
Current bottom just so happens to be the .618 fib level. Not the cleanest but clean enough where it dipped to the level and traded sideways for over a month before this current rally back up to the 10k region.
Note: We are currently sitting right at the .382 fib level. Pretty much waiting to see if we break above or below.
Bullish Outlook:
We have broken the down-trend channel and currently sit at the .382 fib level while approaching a possible golden cross. This is an awesome sign from a bullish perspective.
RSI is trending upwards. Now just looking for a new high following a healthy retracement.
NVT beginning to signal a possible market-top upcoming. This means we need to see some huge price moves to the upside real soon to be convinced, else it could mean a huge dump in the future..lol
Reasons to be cautious here?
We are at a major resistance level as highlighted above.
Bitcoin has so many times had the 500MA approach the 200MA just to get rejected and continue its downside/sideways action.
RSI is trending upwards sure, but we’re in overbought territory for quite some time now and haven’t quite yet made a new high in RSI or a healthy retracement for that matter. I would be very attentive to the price level when that retracement does occur.
What am I looking for?
Bitcoin’s retracement is what’s most important to me at this very moment. In the near future it will become much clearer whether we make a new high in our RSI and have our price level break the current resistance and continue on up. I’d like to see RSI indicators cool off as we hold current price levels or break them. I’m going to have to see some fireworks with regards to price movement to be totally convinced about a trend reversal.
Mind the Gap:
Now the gap boys would love to see the $8500 price gap get filled. Now this doesn’t need to happen but it has 95% of the time, so that’s a good enough reason for me to take a look at it.
The $8500 gap price level just so happens to be at the .5 fib level.
With that being said I am pretty convinced that we are going to have a golden cross because of how sharp this rally upwards is. On the flip side, it’s going to take a massive dump down to reject that idea.
Conclusion: I can easily see us getting rejected here at this resistance, having a healthy retracement to fill the $8500 gap at the .5 fib level and still be at/above the 50MA. This is still bullish. This will also still complete the golden cross and BTC can continue and bounce up to break the resistance level and make new highs. I’ve circled a similar scenario in April of 2019 where we had a dump at the golden cross but remained above it, continuing a massive bull cycle that went on to about $14k.
Or..
We can hold current price levels or break above it as we have our technical indicators cool off. This will totally change my strategy and I will update this idea as it plays out.
Let me know what you think. This isn’t trading advice. Just my ideas and opinions on the current market.
Safe trading. Cheers!