Tendorian
Short

7th April Bitcoin - Short for final crash

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
My intuition long trade was wrong, but surprisingly price managed to not hit my SL by 20 cents. And managed to turn a wrong trade into a profitable one, I must admit that was luck. But now everything is clear, I did expect this upmove and means that there will be a downmove to under 6200. This downmove should be fast and painful.

Short
Price 6830
SL 7100
Target under 6200

If price goes above 6900 I will add to my short position.
Comment:

So long as 7100 is not taken out, I am still bearish. The 100 EMA on 1H is providing some strong resistance currently.
Comment:

Possibly has started the down move.

Just realised I wrote a mistake, should be 200 EMA and not 100.
Comment:

The daily has failed to hold above 6900, should give fuel for the bears.
Comment:

Even though my stop loss got taken out in my previous post, I still see this down move coming.

Open Price 6970
SL 7200
Target under 6200
Comment: If this 7200 gets taken out, then I will reevaluate my whole scenario.
Comment:

I consider this upmove to be the C wave up of the correction, what we had was an expanded flat correction. Which means the move is complete or nearly complete and waiting to begin the down move.
Comment:

This should be the beginning of the downmove to under 6200.

SL still at 7200
Comment:

Move SL down to 7000
Comment:

Price has condolidated for a whole day, expecting the next crash to be huge.
Comment:

Sl taken out, this was a move I did not want, because to me this move means more consolidation over the coming days.
Comment:

What I think we will see is another smaller correction, we do not know if this develops into a flat, expanded flat or running flat. But I will get in at the end of the C wave for the down move. For now I am not trading this market until the C wave is ongoing.
Your $6900 resistance is holding up strong! You're quiet.... waiting for the crash to materialize? :)
Reply
Tendorian alansoft
@alansoft, Well there really is nothing to post, price has consolidated for a whole day. Expecting the next fall to be huge. =)
Reply
This time it will be taken, my intuition says it will reach to the same of the previous top at 7200-7500, if this point breaks out we will see new highs; if not we will see new lower low with a strong bearish wave
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@zak6111, Yea I am expecting the big bear wave to come soon.
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This is what I meant in previous comments below
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@zak6111, Well that was unexpected, but I still see this go down.
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So you doubled down on your short at 7-7.1k? SL 7,2?
Reply
Tendorian alansoft
@alansoft, If you want me to be honest, I did not put a stop loss on this trade because I am confident of the downmove. But I have to take my loss on my post.
Reply
alansoft Tendorian
@Tendorian, I really think it could go either way this time. It seems like a complete gamble now. There's that big wedge which we are moving out of just by keeping the 7k mark. If we close the day above 6.9k it might give fuel for a jump up tomorrow. And, if not, it will give honey to the bears. I am not a TA expert, so I have no conviction which way to gamble! Whoever is betting on the right side will have a good ride...
Reply
Tendorian alansoft
@alansoft, Yea 7200 is probably the price where it should hold if this is going down. I consider this upmove to be just a C wave correction. Which means the next move would be down. Will update that idea above.
Reply
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