1- "Fundamentals" / catalysts
Major 3 catalysts for Bitcoin bull run were:
- The belief that Bakkt would open the door to institutions.
- The belief the market bottomed and started a bull trend as MA50 & MA200 made a golden cross.
- Bitcoin was "oversold" 1 year ago. Alot of supply was dumped when it flushed to 3k, exhausting sellers & allowing new buyers to step in. Sentiment was net .
Today this is where they are:
- Bakkt is more than 1 month old, and volumes are in the 10 - 100 range. 10 to 100 Bitcoins .
- A death cross is imminent.
- Sentiment is to hte extreme.
When the fundamentals / news / rumors that drove the price up, get invalidated, you almost always see the price do a full retrace, and get back to where it was before those news hit. In this case that price is 3000-5000.
2- Long & Shorts.
Let's look at what happened around the 25 April.
Longs gave up. Bears came in force. Sentiment went from balanced to mainly ocne again (as it was around the bottom).
3- Price chart
Bulls are weakening. Chart is sending signals.
Very much in favor of bears.
They get money thrown at them every 8 hours. 0.01% on Bitmex. Adds up.
It could take a while, price goes up, down, up, It could hang in the 7-12k range for a while.
But ultimately, it's over. I hope you enjoyed the 2019 bubble.
It will one day go to zero.
It is going to zero.
It went to zero.
Alea jacta est.
"Institutions are accumulating". What institution? Anthony Pompliano group?
Price is going to get to 3k really fast.
Or lets say 3-6k to have wiggle room.
Might go 6000 fast then 3000 later.
As long as funding is favorable, I see no reason to reduce our short position.
People that follow me may remember I left 50 bucks on bmex. I have no idea what they are up too haha.
Probably doubled up.
The next weeks are going to be wonderful.
I bet the bulls are making Wyckoff calls, they never learn.
Brace yourselves for new bottom calls, every leg down is "the bottom".
They will make bottom and reversal calls until zero.
Life is great :)
To crush your enemies -- See them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women!
First Bitcoin "looked like 2015"
Then when that failed, Bitcoin "looked like 2018"
And that failed too, so what now?
THIS is what it looks like now:
Price is at this little trendline. It could bounce.
But the death cross is now an almost 100% certain guarentee.
And the price is very likely to get to december 2018 levels. Noise on the way down is irrelevant.
This article authors think 2 million isn't crazy :)
"If PONZI/USD is not at 2 million by the end of 2020 then mathematics itself is flawed".
This guy does waaaay too much drugs.
Long term is looking pretty bad
It is assumed (I think some people have proven it) because of the correlation, they use those printing events to save Bitcoin each time it falls.
If they want to save Bitcoin they will need more than that.
They need to look at what the FED is doing.
The FED prints 100 billion of magical imaginary money to help the stock market, that is around 30 Trillion big. This is about 0.33% of the cap.
Tether 30 million on a 130 billion cap is 0.023%.
They need to do more.
A sideways or even bounce is very possible.
But the trend should remain down.
Short sellers are bad but printing money out of thin air to pump prices is great!
Especially with the US stock market, the 90% that can barely survive these days really love it!
According to the usual delusional shilling bulls, the price drop is no big deal and not worth paying attention to :)
And so on...
Bitcoin is testing the lower end of its downtrend channel.
Price broke below the daily closes channel, but the one drawn with extremities is holding, might bounce here.
I speculate that if we fall below that and the price is not immediately bought (with Tether?), price will cascade a bit. To the 6000 region first, then 3000 perhaps soon after, perhaps later. I'll be a buyer around 3-4k I think the odds of bouncing are very high.
Here is the BIG Bitcoin secret revealed:
Never waste a good drawing, here is ETH:
BSV broke and rallied double digit percents, but I think BTC is dragging everything down:
Might be interesting to buy alts, they have built in leverage, and cannot drop below 0.
7 hours till death cross. I will post a new idea then where I look at what happened in the past, where to sell etc.
SCAM. Absolute ponzi scheme.
Imagine falling for the same scam over and over, rather than making money off of these.
I am so confident I doubled my short. Oh and also having an account of under 100 bucks on mex helps XD
BTC was a wild ride. But the ponzi is over.
I made an idea about BTC 11 years. Happy Birthday...
If you have to retain 1 thing from this idea it's that BTC brought some good ideas, but ultimately not only does it have limitations but it is an awful monetary system designed to counter another awful monetary system.
Going back to the 19th century is not the solution. It's a counter with an idiotic level of design.
But maybe it will not all be wasted and new better ideas can germinate from its rotting carcass, just like in nature.
It did solve the double spending problem, and elminate the need for a middle man.
My own solution would be currencies controlled by a free market.
But if we get a peer to peer electronic currency, stable, trustworthy, quick and cheap, with little interference from bureaucrats, it would also be awesome!
And Bitcoin will have been in vain.
Such a currency would probably be "regulated" by the free market.
Most people realize that daily MA cross when it happens will bring the price down, probably, short term. NOBODY is denying short term swing lower and MOST TAs call for buy areas below current levels. Trying to spin what “dreamy cryptotards” are saying is just a cheap attempt at dishonesty.
Incoming WEEKLY MA bullish crossing is incoming. Looking at D MA and ignoring W MA is certainly a case of not seeing the Forrest behind the trees.
This is NOT my idea but indeed a collection of ideas expressed by respected TV analysts that you can easily find in the Top list: