The range has narrowed down.
Price is now moving in an uptrend channel . Furthermore, it has formed an ascending triangle , which has a bullish bias. The volume is dying off as it's getting near the apex of the triangle, indicating a bigger move is about to happen. If this setup were to appear anywhere else, it would be a clear bullish scenario.
The only issue here is the fact that ascending triangles are continuation patterns and are more reliable when they form during an uptrend (where price has been moving up already before the triangle has formed, then consolidates inside a triangle, and breaks upwards).
In this case, we have an ascending triangle formation, but at the end of a downward move. They are not very reliable as a reversal pattern. That's the only reason we can't go full-on bullish mode yet.
As long as the support line of the triangle holds, a break out to the upside is very possible and even likely. We should see a decisive move within 1-2 days.
A decisive move will be either
A break of the 7780 resistance will confirm the triangle breakout, and the bullish targets will be active.
7500-7480 is a short-term support.
7350 is THE crucial support holding this market. If that breaks, the bears will wake up and we'll see a big increase in selling pressure.
Targets:
1. 7918
2. 8122
3. 8298
4. 8428
The price may reverse at any of the targets, since they are all viable resistances on the way up.
Be smart and take partial profits along the way.
This is a continuation of an idea posted as an update on my previous BTC analysis:
Price is now moving in an uptrend channel . Furthermore, it has formed an ascending triangle , which has a bullish bias. The volume is dying off as it's getting near the apex of the triangle, indicating a bigger move is about to happen. If this setup were to appear anywhere else, it would be a clear bullish scenario.
The only issue here is the fact that ascending triangles are continuation patterns and are more reliable when they form during an uptrend (where price has been moving up already before the triangle has formed, then consolidates inside a triangle, and breaks upwards).
In this case, we have an ascending triangle formation, but at the end of a downward move. They are not very reliable as a reversal pattern. That's the only reason we can't go full-on bullish mode yet.
As long as the support line of the triangle holds, a break out to the upside is very possible and even likely. We should see a decisive move within 1-2 days.
A decisive move will be either
- a clear breakout to the upside, followed by expanding volume as a confirmation, or...
- the triangle gets invalidated, followed with enough volume to break the 7500-7480 and 7350 support levels
A break of the 7780 resistance will confirm the triangle breakout, and the bullish targets will be active.
7500-7480 is a short-term support.
7350 is THE crucial support holding this market. If that breaks, the bears will wake up and we'll see a big increase in selling pressure.
Targets:
1. 7918
2. 8122
3. 8298
4. 8428
The price may reverse at any of the targets, since they are all viable resistances on the way up.
Be smart and take partial profits along the way.
This is a continuation of an idea posted as an update on my previous BTC analysis:
Comment:
The ascending triangle in the main chart is no longer valid. The price has broken down and closed below it.
It also sliced through the first short-term support line at 7480.
The bullish scenario has been rejected. However, as long as the crucial support at 7350 holds, this is still moving inside a trading range / sideways. As long as it stays above that level, the price action is neutral. If/when that support breaks down, then we'll see bigger selling pressure, and the main downtrend will likely continue.
For now, I'd expect the price to slowly (temporarily) bottom out somewhere here or down at 7350 support, and then try to retest the support zone at 7480-7550 as a new resistance.
It also sliced through the first short-term support line at 7480.
The bullish scenario has been rejected. However, as long as the crucial support at 7350 holds, this is still moving inside a trading range / sideways. As long as it stays above that level, the price action is neutral. If/when that support breaks down, then we'll see bigger selling pressure, and the main downtrend will likely continue.
For now, I'd expect the price to slowly (temporarily) bottom out somewhere here or down at 7350 support, and then try to retest the support zone at 7480-7550 as a new resistance.
Comment:
Broke through the crucial support like it was nothing. If you read what I wrote in the update about volatility above (minutes before this breakout happened), then this kind of move confirms it.
This seems to be the beginning of a larger move. The range is broken as well.
Next support at 7150.
This seems to be the beginning of a larger move. The range is broken as well.
Next support at 7150.
Comment:
The price is now forming a new (downtrend) channel.
Since breaking the 7350 key support, this has confirmed the bears are clearly in control.
As long as the price is inside this downtrend channel, the force that pulls it to the downside will be stronger. The longer it stays inside it, the bigger the chance it breaks the big triangle support (black trendline on the chart).
IF the triangle support breaks with similar volume we've seen on this drop, then we're looking down at 6500 first, and potentially much lower than that. But let's take it one step at a time.
There should be a bounce from the current levels, to at least retest the resistances and show how weak/strong the bulls are. If it doesn't manage to go far above and at least test the 7450 resistance, then it is very weak, and I doubt the supports will hold when it dives back down again.
The resistance levels to watch are:
1. 7320
2. 7450
3. 7540
Next support is at 7040-7020 area.
Since breaking the 7350 key support, this has confirmed the bears are clearly in control.
As long as the price is inside this downtrend channel, the force that pulls it to the downside will be stronger. The longer it stays inside it, the bigger the chance it breaks the big triangle support (black trendline on the chart).
IF the triangle support breaks with similar volume we've seen on this drop, then we're looking down at 6500 first, and potentially much lower than that. But let's take it one step at a time.
There should be a bounce from the current levels, to at least retest the resistances and show how weak/strong the bulls are. If it doesn't manage to go far above and at least test the 7450 resistance, then it is very weak, and I doubt the supports will hold when it dives back down again.
The resistance levels to watch are:
1. 7320
2. 7450
3. 7540
Next support is at 7040-7020 area.
Comment:
The big triangle support on the daily chart just got broken. Expect a bounce to around 6950-6980 area in the next few days. That will be the retest of the breakdown level. Potential entry for a short sell, depending on the price behavior once it reaches that level.
Comment:
We still need to see how today's candle closes, but it's highly unlikely that it manages to go back into the triangle and leave only a wick below. If it does that, then we're looking at a reversal. Again, unlikely.
Comment:
We now have a daily close below the triangle support line (not surprising).
What I wrote in the update above still applies. I expect a retrace up to 6900+ area where the price will likely get rejected once more to confirm it as a resistance.
Even though after the comment above, the price attempted to go up and touched 6845, I still don't consider that a proper retrace. 6900+ will complete the retracement.
Unlikely that the strong support area at 6500-6440 breaks without a retrace first.
What I wrote in the update above still applies. I expect a retrace up to 6900+ area where the price will likely get rejected once more to confirm it as a resistance.
Even though after the comment above, the price attempted to go up and touched 6845, I still don't consider that a proper retrace. 6900+ will complete the retracement.
Unlikely that the strong support area at 6500-6440 breaks without a retrace first.
Comment:
The amount of short positions are increasing rapidly. Most of these are opening their short positions at the support level here, which is a terrible idea.
The majority is always wrong at (temporary) tops and bottoms.
The longer the price stays here, the more short positions will be opened, and the higher the chance we'll see them squeezed up first, before any further drop happens below 6500 level.
The targets in my previous update are still valid.
The majority is always wrong at (temporary) tops and bottoms.
The longer the price stays here, the more short positions will be opened, and the higher the chance we'll see them squeezed up first, before any further drop happens below 6500 level.
The targets in my previous update are still valid.
Comment:
This is the move we expected to happen here. Traders who shorted too late are getting squeezed up.
The price reached 6900, the beginnig of the targeted area. It needs some retracement down to 6800-6750 area before another attempt to reach 7000, and possibly 7175-7200 area, depending on how strong the momentum of the squeeze is.
The price reached 6900, the beginnig of the targeted area. It needs some retracement down to 6800-6750 area before another attempt to reach 7000, and possibly 7175-7200 area, depending on how strong the momentum of the squeeze is.
Comment:
It did retrace to 6790, but then that "one more attempt" to go higher was stopped at 6870 with no volume and followup. Sorry for not updating this today, but that signaled it will trade in a range, which it did all day today.
Now the price has broken out of the trading range, and it doesn't look good.
If 6400 breaks here, then a minor support at 6200, and a bigger support area at 5900-6000 are next stops. I doubt 6000 will break today, but things could get out of hand if a panic sell wave starts.
So far, the key support at 6400 is not yet broken. Very uncertain position here.
Another bad sign is that the price retraced only to 6900 after the big drop (I was expecting it to at least touch 6980). 6900 was the minimum retrace before the condition for a further drop has been met. It also indicates that the market was so weak, it only could push up to the minimum retrace level and not a point higher.
Now the price has broken out of the trading range, and it doesn't look good.
If 6400 breaks here, then a minor support at 6200, and a bigger support area at 5900-6000 are next stops. I doubt 6000 will break today, but things could get out of hand if a panic sell wave starts.
So far, the key support at 6400 is not yet broken. Very uncertain position here.
Another bad sign is that the price retraced only to 6900 after the big drop (I was expecting it to at least touch 6980). 6900 was the minimum retrace before the condition for a further drop has been met. It also indicates that the market was so weak, it only could push up to the minimum retrace level and not a point higher.
Comment:
Watch for this bullish wedge to potentially play out. The volume is reducing on each support touch (as it should be), and even after the 6400 break, a big sell-off did not happen. Sellers might be temporary exhausted here.
The confirmation would be a breakout above the resistance line of the wedge.
The projected targets for it are:
1. 6610
2. 6660
3. 6774-6800 area.
Bware, the wedge could still break down if we get another large push to the downside. This is why waiting for confirmation in this scenario is probably a better idea, due to market being heavily in a downtrend.
The confirmation would be a breakout above the resistance line of the wedge.
The projected targets for it are:
1. 6610
2. 6660
3. 6774-6800 area.
Bware, the wedge could still break down if we get another large push to the downside. This is why waiting for confirmation in this scenario is probably a better idea, due to market being heavily in a downtrend.
Comment:
The wedge needs a breakout within 8-9 hours, or it will lose its power.
Comment:
The wedge broke down and is no longer in play. We did see that big volume candle with a large lower wick, which could have signaled the bottom has been set. But still no followup from buyers here. It looks very weak and no bullish signs (except that candle) are visible yet.
The wedge support seems to now act as a resistance for this weak attempt to bounce. Still possible, but it really needs volume and buyers to step up.
Otherwise, it's likely to retest the 6100 temporary bottom, and if that doesn't hold, even the 6000-5900 support area (where there will most likely be a stronger reaction if it gets to that point).
The daily candle closes in 10 minutes, and it doesn't look very good either.
The wedge support seems to now act as a resistance for this weak attempt to bounce. Still possible, but it really needs volume and buyers to step up.
Otherwise, it's likely to retest the 6100 temporary bottom, and if that doesn't hold, even the 6000-5900 support area (where there will most likely be a stronger reaction if it gets to that point).
The daily candle closes in 10 minutes, and it doesn't look very good either.
Comment:
Two things to watch at the moment.
1. Bull flag on the 1h chart, projected target at 6620 (this is more short term).
2. Symmetrical triangle (slighlty more bearish bias, since we're in a downtrend) on the 4h chart, with projected target at 5480-5500 area if it breaks down, and 7325 if it breaks to the upside.
Both of these are just patterns currently formed on the chart. No confirmations for either of them yet. A decisive breakout will give us a signal.
Bull flag:
Symmetrical triangle:
P. S. I tried to post a new analysis before this whole breakout from 6200-6300 happened, but my charts kept being deleted for some reason, so I gave up.
I'll keep updating this here for now. Once I see a bigger move with more confidence, I'll post a new analysis (without issues next time hopefully).
1. Bull flag on the 1h chart, projected target at 6620 (this is more short term).
2. Symmetrical triangle (slighlty more bearish bias, since we're in a downtrend) on the 4h chart, with projected target at 5480-5500 area if it breaks down, and 7325 if it breaks to the upside.
Both of these are just patterns currently formed on the chart. No confirmations for either of them yet. A decisive breakout will give us a signal.
Bull flag:
Symmetrical triangle:
P. S. I tried to post a new analysis before this whole breakout from 6200-6300 happened, but my charts kept being deleted for some reason, so I gave up.
I'll keep updating this here for now. Once I see a bigger move with more confidence, I'll post a new analysis (without issues next time hopefully).
Comment:
The triangle I posted above can no longer be trusted for the projected targets.
The reason is it's getting filled (if the price fills more than 80-85% of the triangle, the breakout will no longer be reliable). It needs to breakout before that, and in this case, the time ran out.
However, pay attention to the ADX. When it's below 10 (currently 6), you can expect a move in either direction to be at least 200-300 points. ADX doesn't tell you the direction, just the size of the breakout that is about to happen.
If you read my second comment from the top above (since I published this chart), you'll see why I titled it "BTC preparing for a BIG move". It was purely because of ADX being at extreme low values on 4h chart. I also wrote the size of the move you can expect (it was 1500 points on average).
This is now on 1h chart, so the size of the move doesn't necessarily have to be THAT large, but 200-300 points is what I expect.
The reason is it's getting filled (if the price fills more than 80-85% of the triangle, the breakout will no longer be reliable). It needs to breakout before that, and in this case, the time ran out.
However, pay attention to the ADX. When it's below 10 (currently 6), you can expect a move in either direction to be at least 200-300 points. ADX doesn't tell you the direction, just the size of the breakout that is about to happen.
If you read my second comment from the top above (since I published this chart), you'll see why I titled it "BTC preparing for a BIG move". It was purely because of ADX being at extreme low values on 4h chart. I also wrote the size of the move you can expect (it was 1500 points on average).
This is now on 1h chart, so the size of the move doesn't necessarily have to be THAT large, but 200-300 points is what I expect.
Comment:
We've got a beautiful breakout here. Could see a pullback now, but this is likely to make another attempt at finally breaking the resistance area above.
Support zone now at 6570-6520 area.
Support zone now at 6570-6520 area.
Comment:
First target reached. Next target at 6900-6980 area.
Temporary support at 6650-6670 area.
Secondary support at 6520-6570 as written above.
This is very nice momentum we're seeing here.
Temporary support at 6650-6670 area.
Secondary support at 6520-6570 as written above.
This is very nice momentum we're seeing here.
Comment:
Watch for something like this to potentially play out.
These "shakeout before a breakout" moves tend to happen quite often lately.
The support levels are still the same as written above.
These "shakeout before a breakout" moves tend to happen quite often lately.
The support levels are still the same as written above.
Comment:
I posted the chart above yesterday pointing out that we should expect these moves. Looks like that same move is now actually playing out once again.
The price bounced from the second support zone mentioned in the previous update.
Volume looks good.
The price bounced from the second support zone mentioned in the previous update.
Volume looks good.
Comment:
The price is hesitating near the resistance zone once again. A rising wedge is now being formed, which is not what I'd like to see when targeting higher prices.
This wedge (if completed, that is, if broken down) has the projected targets at 6450-6350 area.
There's still possibility that we get a breakout from the wedge to the upside, which would be very bullish, but right now, this wedge and the slow grind up on low volume indicates that the odds for a drop are slightly higher.
Note that the price can still test 6900-6980 area and remain inside the wedge. If rejected there, it would create a perfect opportunity for a short sell entry.
This wedge (if completed, that is, if broken down) has the projected targets at 6450-6350 area.
There's still possibility that we get a breakout from the wedge to the upside, which would be very bullish, but right now, this wedge and the slow grind up on low volume indicates that the odds for a drop are slightly higher.
Note that the price can still test 6900-6980 area and remain inside the wedge. If rejected there, it would create a perfect opportunity for a short sell entry.
Comment:
Targets reached. The wedge has completed. Main support currently at 6250-6200 area.
Likely to see a bounce from here, but due to the volume and the speed of this drop, this was not a correction, but a possible beginning of yet another larger move that will play out during the coming days.
New resistances now at 6440 and 6520.
Likely to see a bounce from here, but due to the volume and the speed of this drop, this was not a correction, but a possible beginning of yet another larger move that will play out during the coming days.
New resistances now at 6440 and 6520.
Comment:
Broke out of the ascending triangle.
The projected targets are at 6380-6400 area.
Let's see if it will reach it, or if the move is wearker than that.
The projected targets are at 6380-6400 area.
Let's see if it will reach it, or if the move is wearker than that.
Comment:
Needs volume to pick up though, or this move will just turn into more sideways boring action.
Comment:
A retrace down to 6100 is healthy. Below that it becomes questionable and potentially bearish.
Comment:
This candle changes a lot of things for the short-term price movements (the following days).
I will try to post a new analysis later today.
I will try to post a new analysis later today.
The last few times the ADX (measures volatility, not price direction/trend) was at this level, here's what happened:
20th of May: that breakout gave us a price move of 1500 points (8550 to 7040).
30th of April: a price move of 1195 points (8800-9995)
9th of April: a price move of 1800 points (6600-8400)
I'm not calling the direction of the breakout here, just pointing out the size of the move that is about to happen. We still can't know the direction until the breakout actually happens and the market decides where it wants to go.
It's getting really close now. I expect a breakout within 16-20 hours.
This is the "calm before the storm" we're seeing now.