Dec.26-Jan.1(BTC)Weekly market recap

Hi Sypoolian, happy new year. As the window period of BTC ETF approaches, the fluctuations
of market gradually amplify. The current options open interest in BTC is at an all-time high, approaching $20 billion. On Deribit, among the options with expiration dates on January 5 and January 12, the number of call options is clearly leading. At strike price, the $50,000 call option leads in volume. These indicate that the market expects the BTC ETF to pass with a high probability, and in the short term, BTC may reach around $50,000.

In addition to the predictions given by the options market, we also see the GBTC premium shrinking further. As well as Ark investment funds gradually reducing their holdings of GBTC, these all show that the adoption of BTC ETF is getting closer. (We believe that in the case where Ark Investment Fund has applied for a BTC ETF at the same time, reducing the share of competitors is an act of betting on the approval of the BTC ETF).

BTC remained fluctuating for most of last week, but saw a significant rise on the first day of the new year, breaking through the given resistance level 44000. The current price is above 45000. However, the trading volume yesterday was not very significant, so whether an effective breakthrough will be formed needs to wait until today's close. We raise resistance level to 48000, the March 2022 rally high, and maintain the original support level 38000.

On the daily level, the ME indicator continues to remain bullish. Judging from the WTA indicator, the rise is still not supported by the blue column representing the whale, which is one of the reasons why we have not confirmed an effective breakthrough.

Switch to level 4h. BTC rose and expanded after breaking through 44000, and trading volume increased significantly, completing the breakthrough. We can also see on the WTA indicator that the blue column representing the whale appears. And on the ME indicator, the purple wavy area has expanded again.

To sum up, we believe that we need to wait until today's close to determine whether a breakthrough at the daily level is formed. Currently BTC is only confirmed at the 4h level.

Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.

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