BTC: Today's 60k double-tap breaks below 6-month channel
I'm not a big fan of channels. I think they can distort our perceptions. Nonetheless, they're one way of viewing things.
If we go with a channel-based analysis for a second, I thought this was interesting.
I've been wondering why 60k has been such a barrier. It has been tapped more than a dozen times in the last month.
But maybe it's less about that specific number, than where BTC is in its macro channel.
A channel makes sense if it hits the most points possible. The most points takes us back to 08 October 2020, when there was a shift in momentum that led into the push beyond the previous ATH on 17 December.
I thought it was interesting that today's double tap around 60k entails a drop below the 6-month channel.
The last time BTC did this, based on this channel, was 9-11 December, when we also saw a double tap, on 17.5k. From there, BTC exploded into a parabolic move topping at 42k. A 58.1% increase.
Letting the logarithmic chart do its thing and just moving an arc upwards, the result of the same move now would be a 28.7% increase to around 85k.
The logarithmic chart also distorts the angle of curve, as seen.
The same curve pushed up to 400k becomes practically flat. Pushed down becomes more vertical.
Note that a large amount of the move, if it happens, would be outside the 6-month channel. And the subsequent correction certainly would be.
The chart is set against Pablo Valero's logarithmic regression bands, marking "Is this a bubble?", "Sell!" and "Maximum Bubble Territory" levels.
If we go with a channel-based analysis for a second, I thought this was interesting.
I've been wondering why 60k has been such a barrier. It has been tapped more than a dozen times in the last month.
But maybe it's less about that specific number, than where BTC is in its macro channel.
A channel makes sense if it hits the most points possible. The most points takes us back to 08 October 2020, when there was a shift in momentum that led into the push beyond the previous ATH on 17 December.
I thought it was interesting that today's double tap around 60k entails a drop below the 6-month channel.
The last time BTC did this, based on this channel, was 9-11 December, when we also saw a double tap, on 17.5k. From there, BTC exploded into a parabolic move topping at 42k. A 58.1% increase.
Letting the logarithmic chart do its thing and just moving an arc upwards, the result of the same move now would be a 28.7% increase to around 85k.
The logarithmic chart also distorts the angle of curve, as seen.
The same curve pushed up to 400k becomes practically flat. Pushed down becomes more vertical.
Note that a large amount of the move, if it happens, would be outside the 6-month channel. And the subsequent correction certainly would be.
The chart is set against Pablo Valero's logarithmic regression bands, marking "Is this a bubble?", "Sell!" and "Maximum Bubble Territory" levels.
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
