BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Yes, this is a 20 minute video. But I speak quickly. This Idea is meant to be watched as a video. If you do not watch the video and only read below, you will not get much from this idea or may get the wrong idea.


Overall I have been short (Not in market) since the reversal in the stock market on April 5th and 6th. I go over all this in the video and I talk fast. So there is a lot of information to see.

I don't want to put investment strategy short, because I don't really want to say that where the price currently is, is a good spot to short. It seems odd to too heavily before any non crypto markets are open, but after they closed for the weekend. Considering the market was pretty obviously bear on Thursday and Friday.

Possible targets if we drop below 28k and have some bad price action are then to around 26.9k and most likely between 22.35k and 23.3k.

For me to feel bullish on BTC I would have to see several things. It is too complicated to explain without showing the chart, but I mention it in the video.

It is worth the watch. I reference the most important things that I look at to determine bitcoin price movement.

Based on the Schiff pitchfork , It looks like the lack of movement in BTC is actually distribution and that we have failed to hold the key channel (Jun 1st). We also had a hard rejection of the top of the current channel on Jun 6th.



If you have any questions feel free to leave them below.

Comment:

Price action looks bad. BTC respects the week channel bottom, but in bad ways. It seems to always full under the support, find resistance at it, and then shoot up when it goes through. But it does not bounce on the line (21,603) tokeep the price above the line.
Comment:
Hoping BTC ends day alightly above 21,630 and then we possibly drop to 20,900 and then that would be good to shoot back up. From there I hope that BTC can hold slightly above 23,500 and end tomorrows day candle there. That in my opinion would be PERFECT for a nice rise up to around 24.5-25k.

Overall I don't like the way market looks. Watch video. Although it is 20 minutes, I talk VERY VERY fast. So there is a lot of information in there from my forward thoughts to what happened since the last update was published.
Comment:
Long story short. We ended above, but I preferred that we ended below near the 21,630 target (week TF bottom of channel).

We may go up. The move I mentioned was from 21,630 to 22,500. So there could be a possible chance to reenter. Ignoring everything else, the price action on the day and the start of this candle is not a good look for me.

We have the 1HR TF 375 hull average pushing down on the price and the next 1HR TF will make that 8 dollars under the current top on this 1HR candle. So there is a possibility for a short term double time and pushing us back under the pink channel (~22,500). 22,500 is good support, so it can bounce from there, but the movements just feels off. I go over it more specifically in the video.

I think this is bearing more than bullish , but lets see what happens.

You really don't need to watch the video if you read this, but it shows my way of thinking in real time and may prove useful to you if you use the 200 SMMA and the 375,500 Double Hull averages.

Take care and Good luck.
Comment:
Price action seems to be moving as I had a feeling it might when we started above the channel and not above and around 21,630. Only time will tell.
Comment: After Market Update 6/16/2022

Looks bad. Possible drop on the next day timeframe within a short period of the candle change is maybe 40%%. I think it is highly possible the price can come back up to around 22,500 to test the channel top and complete the inverse head and shoulders.

For purposes of a day candle start under the channel and coming back to test, I would thing it is possible to come back up. It looks like it has A LOT of resistance after that ugly price action throughout the day.

Next bounce spot is most likely 17,800 and maybe returning to 20,800 - 21,630 before going back down towards 8-9k.
Comment:
New day Candle 6/16/2022

This is what seems likely based on today's candle end/start. The week timeframe doesn't necessarily warrant a drop past this zone, but it looks horrible on the day.
Comment:
LOLOL. I forgot today is Friday. I still believe in what I said in the video. Ignore it when I say "tomorrow" and insert Sunday. I'll make another update tomorrow or if i see any interesting activity.

Most likely no huge movement until the next week candle. I think whether it ends above 21,630 or under will have a big impact on the direction it takes. Even if it ends under 21,630, I think it is still possible for the price to test back at ~21,900 to see if there is a rejection of that level on the week time frame.

I think it is possible to reject at 20,900 and continue down on this day candle. So that may be something to watch for. I still think action on the next week candle is more likely.
Comment:
Skip to 16:05 if you want the jist of what I am looking for for possible confirmation of an upwards movement.

The first 16 minutes is going over some of the previous things that led us to this location and some other thought to better show my thinking on the movements and positioning.
Comment:
Possibly too bullish of a movement upwards. I mention the targets I would like. Ended the next 1HR around 18,050-18,200 would be preferable for bottom support and consolidation for a movement upwards in the coming hours.

We did hit the 200smma on the week timeframe which was the same place BTC hit in march 2020 for that bounce. There are some idfferences though.

As usual, the target I wanted to hit was more or less hit, but in my opinion, once again there is possible too much buying.

I also lay out what I would like to see if the price doesnt drop before the next 1HR candle. I believe it was an end around 18.9k. I cant remember exectly though.
Comment:
Looks like absolute trash after not doing what I wanted it to do and pushing too far up too quickly. Especially considering the market conditions of everything non-crypto.

Skip to either 10:15 for the jist of what I would like to see for a buy now. Everything before that is just going back over where we left off last update and looking at some of the price action since that last idea.
Comment:
6/19/2022
You can skip to 14:50 to get the jist of what I would like to see and can possibly happen. As usual, I go through various things in the first part of the video and recap where we just came from.

The buy points were when we came back to the 18050-18200 area and then found support there or when it opened above the 1HR after that support was found at 18050.

The issue now is that the price came back to the supply zone and may not care if certain support targets are hit on its way up to test. The issue as well to that, is that the support targets such as 19k were not hit after the price came over it, even though 19k is strong and it also overlapped with the 1HR 500 hull ma, which would/should have been an easy place to hit and then shoot up.

I would like to see the day/week candle end/start around 18250. I think that would be nice, because on the week timeframe I believe it would suggest a possible test back up to 22,900 (new week top of current channel and then
it is also near a good amount of support (17,800)


TLDR; Bad price action, where it is now. It is in middle of long spot and short spot (17,800 and 22,500) so it is tough to tell what direction it may take from here until the next week candle.
Comment:
Jist of it. I'd rather see price drop to around 18,630-19k and bounce there and wedge for a push up more so then going to 22k-22.6k to test and possibly fail and have to then find support after failing upwards.
Comment:
Short Video. Just watch the video.

-KTown
-TrendlineBoys
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