BTCUSD - having topped on 14th April at $64,895.22 (on Bitstamp) its initial decline appears to be a leading diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 structure completing on 20th July.
The rally since then has approached the proximity of 61.8% retracement around $50k - $52k as potential area of structural resistance, in an abc zigzag accompanied with multiple divergences on momentum indicators suggesting it might be forming a possible top of retracement bounce.
If this holds then retest of July low is very likely. If the next leg bearish leg has price symmetry with the initial leg then this projects possible decline towards $20k upon failure of July low to hold.
For perspective see the following time frame:
A Weekly Chart:
Similar retracement bounces are likely to be topping for other related instruments, for example:
LTCUSD
ETHUSD
And XMRUSD
Caution
This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
The rally since then has approached the proximity of 61.8% retracement around $50k - $52k as potential area of structural resistance, in an abc zigzag accompanied with multiple divergences on momentum indicators suggesting it might be forming a possible top of retracement bounce.
If this holds then retest of July low is very likely. If the next leg bearish leg has price symmetry with the initial leg then this projects possible decline towards $20k upon failure of July low to hold.
For perspective see the following time frame:
A Weekly Chart:
Similar retracement bounces are likely to be topping for other related instruments, for example:
LTCUSD
ETHUSD
And XMRUSD
Caution
This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
Comment:
The wave "c" of abc retracement bounce was rather short. It seems like this one is developing in to another ending diagonal (minor rising wedge) If correct the it might complete around $52k
Comment:
Bitcoin is on the move. Will be very interesting to see how it reacts around $52k. Wave C also appears to be a diagonal.
During most this move volume has been falling and momentum indicators have been weakening. So unless price really picks up speed, it might form retracement top.
During most this move volume has been falling and momentum indicators have been weakening. So unless price really picks up speed, it might form retracement top.
Comment:
12Hr Chart above shows it retraced 2/3rd (66.66%) of the decline from April high in what appears to be potential abc zigzag, suggesting that this was a corrective bounce, which seems complete. If correct then most likely we might commence 2nd bearish cycle to develop OR morph in to some larger congestion pattern.
In 15 min time frame might be showing a 5 wave decline which if correct it would be impulsive decline suggesting further price weakness is most likely to follow.
Weekly Chart above we can note a developing bearish look with RSI potentially finding resistance at 60 and PPO might hook make a bearish hook if price continues to weaken.