I think this week has been a very important week for Bitcoin and I have not seen anyone talk about the fact that the 200 weekly moving average is now at the previous all time high at 20k.
This is a very important thing to take note of because we have never closed a weekly candle under the 200 week moving average in Bitcoins history it has been a hard bottom for Bitcoin in bear markets and even the Covid crash 2020 , take a look below
Also found something interesting in this chart and that is the last time the 200 weekly hit the previous all time high in December 2017 it was the top of that current cycle, just something to keep in mind.
So there are three projections I'm currently following right now , take a quick look at my previous TA to get an idea on where I come from with this TA.
Any price action under the 0.5 or 0.618 Fib means nothing , until we close and hold 0.618 as support we are still in a setup for a much larger distribution leg down. The leg down will most likely find a bottom at the 200 weekly moving average which as of right now is at 20k but if we quick estimate we find the 200 weekly would be somewhere around 23k-24k by May 16th 2022.
So I have laid out three different outcomes I'm following right now .
Green Circle - This would be the lowest probability outcome out of the three ,come May 16th price breaks 0.618 and the bull market resumes.
Red Circle - This would be the highest probability outcome , come May 16th major pivot for a huge leg down to the 200 weekly.
Blue Circle- I would say this one is somewhere in the middle , come May 16th price will find a new cycle bottom at 23-24k at the 200 weekly.
It all comes down to how price reacts in this orange box ,if we do get any sort of rejection of this area or a double top pattern forming that would be the confirmation that the red or blue circle will play out.
We already had two 55% draw downs , whats one more to the 200weekly at 65%? historically it would be the best time to buy Bitcoin , one thing is for sure if we do hit 200 weekly you can expect OTC outflow to hit all time high.
This is a very important thing to take note of because we have never closed a weekly candle under the 200 week moving average in Bitcoins history it has been a hard bottom for Bitcoin in bear markets and even the Covid crash 2020 , take a look below
Also found something interesting in this chart and that is the last time the 200 weekly hit the previous all time high in December 2017 it was the top of that current cycle, just something to keep in mind.
So there are three projections I'm currently following right now , take a quick look at my previous TA to get an idea on where I come from with this TA.
Any price action under the 0.5 or 0.618 Fib means nothing , until we close and hold 0.618 as support we are still in a setup for a much larger distribution leg down. The leg down will most likely find a bottom at the 200 weekly moving average which as of right now is at 20k but if we quick estimate we find the 200 weekly would be somewhere around 23k-24k by May 16th 2022.
So I have laid out three different outcomes I'm following right now .
Green Circle - This would be the lowest probability outcome out of the three ,come May 16th price breaks 0.618 and the bull market resumes.
Red Circle - This would be the highest probability outcome , come May 16th major pivot for a huge leg down to the 200 weekly.
Blue Circle- I would say this one is somewhere in the middle , come May 16th price will find a new cycle bottom at 23-24k at the 200 weekly.
It all comes down to how price reacts in this orange box ,if we do get any sort of rejection of this area or a double top pattern forming that would be the confirmation that the red or blue circle will play out.
We already had two 55% draw downs , whats one more to the 200weekly at 65%? historically it would be the best time to buy Bitcoin , one thing is for sure if we do hit 200 weekly you can expect OTC outflow to hit all time high.
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