What would happen if Bitcoin extends into a Longer Bear Market
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Should Bitcoin close a Weekly candle at or below 40K then it would extend the current short-term Bear Market into a longer one which would bottom on February 21 at the amazing buy/long level of 21-17K.
The major reasons for this setup to play out following a Weekly close below 40K are:
1. The expectation that the US Dollar will keep surging in the coming months, which in return will temporarily keep putting sell pressure on the commodity market as well as Bitcoin, Crypto and Gold.
2. The aggregated funding rates on Bitcoin across all the exchanges remain positive which means we are not yet near a bottom (no safety net)
3. Bitcoin is trading below the 21W EMA or 1W Bollinger Midband now at $53.2K since early December 2021 which historically means that Bitcoin is in a longer Bear Market.
4. We have broken below the long-term Weekly parabola and also bull log parallel channel
5. The majority of traders across almost all exchanges like Bitfinex and Binance are all long while shorts are low, couple that with point (2) we could see a liquidation cascade of all long positions across all exchanges should Bitcoin be pushed below 40K.
Should this setup fail, then that would mean that Bitcoin broke up past the top of the falling wedge at $45.6K by next Friday and for that I have published the plan here:
Best of luck and happy trading!
Carl M.
Please hit the like bottom at the bottom right corner and the follow button for more charts and updates.
Should Bitcoin close a Weekly candle at or below 40K then it would extend the current short-term Bear Market into a longer one which would bottom on February 21 at the amazing buy/long level of 21-17K.
The major reasons for this setup to play out following a Weekly close below 40K are:
1. The expectation that the US Dollar will keep surging in the coming months, which in return will temporarily keep putting sell pressure on the commodity market as well as Bitcoin, Crypto and Gold.
2. The aggregated funding rates on Bitcoin across all the exchanges remain positive which means we are not yet near a bottom (no safety net)
3. Bitcoin is trading below the 21W EMA or 1W Bollinger Midband now at $53.2K since early December 2021 which historically means that Bitcoin is in a longer Bear Market.
4. We have broken below the long-term Weekly parabola and also bull log parallel channel
5. The majority of traders across almost all exchanges like Bitfinex and Binance are all long while shorts are low, couple that with point (2) we could see a liquidation cascade of all long positions across all exchanges should Bitcoin be pushed below 40K.
Should this setup fail, then that would mean that Bitcoin broke up past the top of the falling wedge at $45.6K by next Friday and for that I have published the plan here:
Best of luck and happy trading!
Carl M.
Trade active:
On track so far with my plan as long as this Weekly candle (on Sunday) closes below the 40Ks!
I have set some partial buys at $34ks through 30ks and some low ball orders in case of a liquidation long cascade down to $28-26Ks (never know). Would look to ride a nice bounce to $39-42ks should it happen before more downside with equities/stocks into February.
I do expect a final bottom on Bitcoin around $21-17Ks (with lower wicks or capitulation possible a tad lower before recovering up).
I have set some partial buys at $34ks through 30ks and some low ball orders in case of a liquidation long cascade down to $28-26Ks (never know). Would look to ride a nice bounce to $39-42ks should it happen before more downside with equities/stocks into February.
I do expect a final bottom on Bitcoin around $21-17Ks (with lower wicks or capitulation possible a tad lower before recovering up).
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