Fed is cheating

Morning folks,

BTC was able to show a bit higher pullback, reaching minor 3/8 Fib resistance around 21.30K, although we've expected direct downside continuation. Why we've made a mistake? Well, we've trusted to the Fed promise that it should sell 48.5 Bln assets off the balance... But they have lied. In June they have sold six times smaller amount - just around 0.7 Bln. But it is not all yet guys. Since May, the US Treasury deposit decreased for 300 Bln. Money was withdrawn and sent into economy. It means that net liquidity inflow is + 250 Bln, instead of -48.7B as it should be. So, feel the difference.

Of course the bulk of these money flow to the stocks, which explains why they are stopped dropping. As BTC has 90% correlation with NSDQ, it also gets some money...

But, since the start of the July Fed has sold about 20 Bln (look TW chart WSHOSHO). And markets immediately have turned down again. Thus, it is simple explanation with no changes in fundamental background. This also makes us to not change our opinion and wait for 12K area - our next target. We do not consider any long positions now.

For the short entry you could use bearish flag pattern on daily chart and few Fib levels to decide where to hide the stop. Besides, this week we get new CPI numbers. As liquidity has not been contracted - numbers probably will be above expectations, which provides more pressure on BTC as well...

Take care,
S.