Stargazer_fx

BTCUSD bearish continuation. $30K again or even lower

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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BITCOIN
Price formes a Bearish-flag like structure and falls sharply after a breakout, similarly I expect the price to range and form a trend continuation pattern again.



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*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Comment: The best place to Buy,
here's the analysis
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Comments

Looks like so many of us now expecting a dead cat bounce after learning from 2018... Will this change the outcome?

We will see.
200 coins
+8 Reply
DrStein AlanSantana
@AlanSantana, Well said. That 13K bounce back in 2018 trapped so many people including me. I was able to sold again after 2,5 years. Who can hodl for that long when the price keeps dropping?
+2 Reply
@DrStein, me too lol
+2 Reply
Although I dont agree it will drop that low, I respect quality TA. Best of luck trading, friend.
100 coins
+1 Reply
It's too late to be a bear now 😂 The same fractal happened in 2017 and things recovered in 4 days and had a massive run few days later.
+15 Reply
@BabySharq yeah ok but since when does past price action prove future price action. If anything repetitive behaviors find ways,to deviate in the market especially when people expect them to. just saying... this comment is testiment to that. The wise know they are not smarter than the market
+1 Reply
BabySharq Gunslinger2005
@Gunslinger2005, Fear & greed is very very low, after billions in liquidations the onchain data looks squeaky clean and primed for a rally. Yesterday's bottoming candle along with the huge surge in volume indicates that the transfer of wealth from weak hands to strong hands has been completed. Too many hidden bullish signs to ignore.
+5 Reply
Phyloader Gunslinger2005
@Gunslinger2005, Your comment would be prescient were it not for bitcoin having a predictable reduction in increase in supply; AKA a very very low rate of inflation that happens at relatively predictable moments in time based on a defined ratio (1/2) known to everyone.

If you observe a consistent pattern in nature that can be defined algorithmically that pattern exists despite randomized and non-repeating occurrences (hacks, elon musks tweets, China's financial policies, etc etc etc.)

First peak in 2011: 32$. Second peak in 2013: 1137$ Third peak in 2017: $19460.
Multiple Increase 2011-2013: 35.5X
Multiple Increase 2013-2017: 17.2X
Multiple Increase 2017-Date Y: good chance right around 8x.

Multiple models including stock to flow, log regression equations, time analysis from halving to peak price, and my above method (which insinuates the factor by which a subsequent peak exceeds the previous decreases at a steady rate of about 2) indicate this is the first major correction on the way to a peak which is at minimum approximately 3X what the price currently is as I type this with that peak happening up to a year from now.

Selling the dip out of fear is about the worst possible trading strategy; in fact it is not a strategy. It is impulsive emotion. I bought in at averages prices of ~8K before the march 2020 crash based on the above knowledge and I used my diamond hands and nerves to sit back and do nothing when the price crashed to 4K. I held off buying more at those prices out of fear the crash may continue. Had I been smart and paid attention to analytics I should have been gobbling up more at those prices and if I were really smart I woulda sold more coin than I did before the crash to gobble up an even greater portion of that dip than I could have otherwise.

Good chances those people who caught that liquidation wick yesertday in the 30-35K range per coin will be the last people on earth to ever get their hands on bitcoin at that price. In another 3 years you may have the chance to buy in the 40-60K range at the bottom of the next bear market.

Could I be wrong? Ya.
+12 Reply
matusdrabik Phyloader
@Phyloader, true, breaking 30k seems impossible atm but I thought the same with breaking 40k when we were 60k...it changed my mind in only 7 days. I dont see problem going down from 20k to 4k at 200bn cap I see problem 50% down at 1.2T. These things you just dont see on mature markets.
Reply
Phyloader matusdrabik
@matusdrabik, It is scary I know. I did not think 60K--->40K was impossible; thats a 33% dump. That happened multiple times in 2017 on the way to the peak. It is looking quite bloody out there right now but you know what they say.
And yup, bitcoin is not a mature market; it will eventually stabilize at some relatively tight value in a few couple decades.
Reply