DrDovetail

approaching the neckline of a big 1hr head and shoulders pattern

Short
DrDovetail Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Normally I'd list an idea like this as neutral until I saw confirmation of a breakdown below the neckline. However in this situation after such a parabolic rise plus what seems to have also been a blow off top and the fact that we have gaps as low as 8.5k on the futures contract that still need filled, I think probability favors a breakdown here. Not only that, I think as BTC dips many altcoins are going to rise in value against btc. I also think we will likely find our ultimate support around the red horizontal at 8504 or so and not reach the full breakdown target before we reach our massive rebound. The good news is, we wont hit a lower low on the daily chart until we dip below the horizontal purple line on my chart, so as long as we don't go under 6k the bull run should continue after this correction. I will b waiting for confirmation on the neckline to sell any more of my position but I will limit sell back around 8550 if it does indeed plummet and no wait for the full drop target. If it does dip the entire way I may then just buy the dip. There is of course still a chance we wont break back under 10k but the probability is small...even still because of that I will await breakdown confirmation of the h&s before selling any of my position.
Comment:
we have just recently achieved a lower high on thee 4hr chart and are now waiting to see if we follow it up with a lower low. To achieve a lower low on the 4hr we must dip below the h&s neckline.
Comment:
lower low achieved on the 4hr chart. Probability highly favors a confirmed breakdown...in a bull market such as this one however, Im not confident even if a breakdown is confirmed we will reach the full breakdown target so I plan to set small limit buys starting around 9.4k then again at 9000 and also 8550 laddering in more each time.
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