Many are saying the bull has resumed, I politely and respectfully disagree as I see no indicators or any confirmation from breaking previous resistance levels. However as I have stated many times we do not trade nor invest on feeling alone we trade on probabilities. Price movement is not an indicator of a bull market as in any bull market we have selloffs and in any bear markets we have run ups. But to be a Good trader and yield higher returns then using gut feelings and emotions, such as "it's going higher look at the price we broke $4400" which often lead to a deer in the headlight look when the trend abruptly changes, we have a plan and a strategy to play the market either way. I am sharing with those that are trying to become better traders, my strategy, not that it's the only one, but the point I have one and am not trading blindly. Follow the herd, you'll end up like a deer in the headlights as many have. Yes the same deer screaming $7000 when we were at $4800 is back at it again! This is a sign!
Since this all started, we had specific levels that we marked on the chart $4200 - $4000 - $4600. If you note on early articles I often marked these "reflection points". This is where I review the chart and come up with a strategy. Well folks we are at a reflection point.
TO BE CLEAR THIS IS MY PLAN AND THE STRATEGY I AM TAKING, PLEASE DO YOUR HOMEWORK AS THIS IS AN OVERVIEW AND NOT THE INTRICACIES OF TRADING IT!
The upper green channel is the bullish trend movement from the top. We must enter this channel but more importantly break the $4697 level which was the former B (bulltrap) level. I also want confirmation by either a strong RSI above 80 and the PPO above 3.8, or a retest and bounce higher from $4700. THIS IS WHERE I BUY. and my stops will be tight in the event it fails. And they do!
So why not buy now as we are getting close. Well simple the correction cycle is still very much in play based on the June17 and 2013 corrections. Bottom line history says we can pull back further. To deny this is a high probability is to be ignorant, period! It is also a risk reward in a more complex sense. You see many TA state buy here sell here stop here, risk reward 3.5/1. That's a basic trade, however there are more complex risk rewards as well. If I buy now at $4450 for a run to $6000 which is the next fibb level that's a nice 35% profit. If I buy at $4800 because I'm cautious that is a 25% profit. So I'm risking 10% profit by waiting. Let's look at the other scenario. If the correction does happen I have the potential to buy @$3000 for the run to $6000. that's 100% profit, If it hits the $2200 mark that's 172% profit. No brainer in my opinion.
Let's break that down. Say it's a coin flip 50/50 every time. You can see where patience will pay off. 50% of the time your making 100%, and 50% your making 25%. Those are good odds. The other way. 50% i'm making 35% the other 50% I am losing or sitting on dead money, and dead money don't make money! The odds are with us in the long run! Do this 10 times and you'll be far ahead of those just buying because they see the bars move up on a chart and have a gut feeling. These are math numbers and are not disputable.
Also buying now would be no different then shorting now. I never buy or sell unless there are signals confirming the direction which increase the probability of success. I have not flipped my overall TA, I'm just positioning to be profitable whether I'm right or wrong. Those buying now are buying blindly.
IT'S ALL ABOUT PROBABILITIES AND THE BEST WAY TO PROFIT FROM THEM. Regardless if I'm right or wrong in my overall assumption, I have a plan and strategy to trade both ways. I have mentioned this since day one. This is why you do not need to be right even 50% of the time to make money in the market. However History shows a pullback is more probable than a breakout from here, so the odds are really stacked my way!
Since this all started, we had specific levels that we marked on the chart $4200 - $4000 - $4600. If you note on early articles I often marked these "reflection points". This is where I review the chart and come up with a strategy. Well folks we are at a reflection point.
TO BE CLEAR THIS IS MY PLAN AND THE STRATEGY I AM TAKING, PLEASE DO YOUR HOMEWORK AS THIS IS AN OVERVIEW AND NOT THE INTRICACIES OF TRADING IT!
The upper green channel is the bullish trend movement from the top. We must enter this channel but more importantly break the $4697 level which was the former B (bulltrap) level. I also want confirmation by either a strong RSI above 80 and the PPO above 3.8, or a retest and bounce higher from $4700. THIS IS WHERE I BUY. and my stops will be tight in the event it fails. And they do!
So why not buy now as we are getting close. Well simple the correction cycle is still very much in play based on the June17 and 2013 corrections. Bottom line history says we can pull back further. To deny this is a high probability is to be ignorant, period! It is also a risk reward in a more complex sense. You see many TA state buy here sell here stop here, risk reward 3.5/1. That's a basic trade, however there are more complex risk rewards as well. If I buy now at $4450 for a run to $6000 which is the next fibb level that's a nice 35% profit. If I buy at $4800 because I'm cautious that is a 25% profit. So I'm risking 10% profit by waiting. Let's look at the other scenario. If the correction does happen I have the potential to buy @$3000 for the run to $6000. that's 100% profit, If it hits the $2200 mark that's 172% profit. No brainer in my opinion.
Let's break that down. Say it's a coin flip 50/50 every time. You can see where patience will pay off. 50% of the time your making 100%, and 50% your making 25%. Those are good odds. The other way. 50% i'm making 35% the other 50% I am losing or sitting on dead money, and dead money don't make money! The odds are with us in the long run! Do this 10 times and you'll be far ahead of those just buying because they see the bars move up on a chart and have a gut feeling. These are math numbers and are not disputable.
Also buying now would be no different then shorting now. I never buy or sell unless there are signals confirming the direction which increase the probability of success. I have not flipped my overall TA, I'm just positioning to be profitable whether I'm right or wrong. Those buying now are buying blindly.
IT'S ALL ABOUT PROBABILITIES AND THE BEST WAY TO PROFIT FROM THEM. Regardless if I'm right or wrong in my overall assumption, I have a plan and strategy to trade both ways. I have mentioned this since day one. This is why you do not need to be right even 50% of the time to make money in the market. However History shows a pullback is more probable than a breakout from here, so the odds are really stacked my way!
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look at what could possibly form and why it is more important to identify the trend then looking at a pattern that is obvious to all.
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I say could possibly form, but it's not the head and shoulders pattern that make it a bear market, it's the bear market that results in the pattern forming. Understand the difference and these slight early signs give you something to see if it evolves. First one to catch it wins the prize so to speak!
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Always looking for something early others don't see until it's too obvious then everyone is on board!!!! The trend is my your friend and noticing them earlier than the next guy gives you an edge on the market. Guarantee the sharks noticed it!
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Great chart posted by @jlhequities. This is why I love feed back. Possible pattern to watch for.
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Keep in mind always that we can turn and head north at any moment. We must always keep in mind that which can cost us pain in the wallets! It's not time to breakout champagne it's time to look at strategies to trade the trend!
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For those of you that are actually interested in developing better strategies, thinking outside the box, and not just looking for buy here sell here prices and really are trying to improve yourself in recognizing market patterns and trends, we had posted about a possible hedge to BTC using DASH. Now keep in mind we are still backtesting but this was a positive and it may provide additional guidance to the direction of BTC in the short term.
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I'm hesitant to post this, but this is my strategy for reducing cost per coin of my core holdings using my trading account funds ONLY! very small position less than 5% will be in the trade, I am risking less than 1% with a tight stop loss. not an automatica either. I monitor! risk reward 3 to 1. $90 profit overall $30 above entry is stop loss. I will ride the HMA and RSI all the way though, those are targets.
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For full disclosure I am also looking for an entry into DASH long to test my thesis on the hedge! So what I sell in BTC will go into DASH when it triggers.
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Bought Dash 306.54
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Ok I have sold at $4190 which means my stop loss is @ $4220. Let's see how she plays out. Please be careful if you are making the same trade. It can bounce back up quickly which is the reason you MUST monitor. This is not about being right or wrong, but patience and tight money management!
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to clarify that was only a half position of the total, as you know i do not do all in moves but some following that are new may not understand this. All about controlling risk!!
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I'm monitoring here where the intersection of the linear regression line is to see if I close out. want to be patient and see if this was just early scalpers covering.
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