Everyone getting bearish here is a good sign.
So I predicted a long sideways already months ago, when people were drawing giant arrows up or down. The reality is that bitcoin can be a surprisingly boring asset most of the time.
It likes doing these plateau structures, since basically the beginning. Huge action and volume for a few weeks, then months of extreme boringness and low volume. Leading of course many
people to get more bearish.
This is imho showing quite nicely in the charts here on TV. As long as there is action, everyone draws their giant arrows upwards. But then, as soon as we see months of boring sideways,
the giant arrows down are unpacked :)
However, of course I think that there is a real possibility for retesting the daily MA200 around 8k-ish, or even in a more extreme case the 6k area, both of which would still be bullish,
as sort of a shakeout; I think the fact that everyone is so bearish now, is really quite bullish.
BTC just likes to surprise everyone, and as soon as even experienced traders start feeling the fear of a crash, and get really pessimistic, more often that is actually a sign that we have bottomed.
It for example happened to me last time in Dec 2018 in the 3k area. I thought that BTC would do its standard shakeout down to 2k, but surprise surprise, too many people were expecting that,
so it of course never happened.
We could face a similar situation right now.
Fundamental-wise, BTC is as strong as ever: Number of wallets growing exponentially. Number of transactions resting on a high leve, poised to aim for new all time highs in the next months.
Halving is nearing and nearing.
Long timeframes on the weekly, but especially on the monthly looking very solid.
Now again, we indeed could see a shakeout, but I believe that too many expect it. So I wouldn't be surprised if BTC would just start slowly creeping upwards, without too much action. Just a slow creep
until the upper weekly bband, then at some point start the next run to 20k in Q1 2020.
These are my current thoughts.
It likes doing these plateau structures, since basically the beginning. Huge action and volume for a few weeks, then months of extreme boringness and low volume. Leading of course many
people to get more bearish.
This is imho showing quite nicely in the charts here on TV. As long as there is action, everyone draws their giant arrows upwards. But then, as soon as we see months of boring sideways,
the giant arrows down are unpacked :)
However, of course I think that there is a real possibility for retesting the daily MA200 around 8k-ish, or even in a more extreme case the 6k area, both of which would still be bullish,
as sort of a shakeout; I think the fact that everyone is so bearish now, is really quite bullish.
BTC just likes to surprise everyone, and as soon as even experienced traders start feeling the fear of a crash, and get really pessimistic, more often that is actually a sign that we have bottomed.
It for example happened to me last time in Dec 2018 in the 3k area. I thought that BTC would do its standard shakeout down to 2k, but surprise surprise, too many people were expecting that,
so it of course never happened.
We could face a similar situation right now.
Fundamental-wise, BTC is as strong as ever: Number of wallets growing exponentially. Number of transactions resting on a high leve, poised to aim for new all time highs in the next months.
Halving is nearing and nearing.
Long timeframes on the weekly, but especially on the monthly looking very solid.
Now again, we indeed could see a shakeout, but I believe that too many expect it. So I wouldn't be surprised if BTC would just start slowly creeping upwards, without too much action. Just a slow creep
until the upper weekly bband, then at some point start the next run to 20k in Q1 2020.
These are my current thoughts.
Comment:
If the daily candle closes well below the support, we could see something like this happen:
Comment:
Touching the daily MA200 before continuing the rise.
Comment:
So it seems, sometimes the sentiment is right.
If we break MA200, we're going to the 6k area, probably around maximum VPVR support, at around 6300:
If we break MA200, we're going to the 6k area, probably around maximum VPVR support, at around 6300: