DrDovetail

BTCUSD testing bottom trendline of monthly wedge!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is a super pivotal moment for the bitcoin correction. The candle is currently holding support on the bottom trendline of the wedge . However it wouldn’t surprise me to see the candle send a brief wick down to the monthly 50ma (in orange) which is double reinforced support with the grey line of the logarithmic regression rainbow. I could see us sending a wick down there then bouncing up and closing the monthly back above the bottom trendline of the wedge . I anticipate a fakeout breakdown first to draw in shorts. We will see what happens. I expect the 20-22k area to at least hold candle body support on the monthly at the very worst but as always this is not financial advice. Lowest I anticipate a wick goin is 14k but then again there is a gap still left infilled somewhere around the nonsensically low level of 9.6-9.7k so who knows the market loves to leave everyone in complete dismay so anything is possible. Personally I will be accumulating small amounts once we reach the gray regression line and slowly laddering in ever further rung down and seeing anything lower as a buying opportunity. Again not financial advice.
Comment: We have now dipped below the bottom trendline and are currently holding wick support on the weekly 200ma(not shown here). I don’t expect it to hold the support though and think a wick below it will be likely…next possible support after that is the orange monthly 50ma and the grey trendline of the regression rainbow. They are both close enough together to function as double reinforced support…if we break below there My ultimate breakdown a target is 14-16.5k range before bottom is in…however there is still a gap all the way at 9.7k. I will be astonished if it feels the gap but stranger things have happened. For now I’m gonna treat the orange and gray lines as support until they become otherwise….and even if we wick below them I believe on the weekly and monthly these lines should hold candle body support.
Comment: One thing to keep in mind here is the 2013-2014 bull run had a false top which had a 77% correction occur soon afterwards before skyrocketing back to its real top at the end of 2013; If we were to dip the same here as we did back then the target would be in the 16-16.5k range…should we bottom there then I will definitely start to treat the current market like more of a fractal of that market than I currently am.
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